1. #BTC didn't reach its bull flag price target of $71K. As it broke Trend Line A, Wave 5 Peak (#CTM Wave 2 peak) is in.
Based on past cycles, the correction from Wave 5 to 6 is 27%-30%. As Wave 5 peak is lower than past cycles', Wave 6 low could be in. Lowest is >$53K. Why?
2. Note #BTC's Wave 6 low (#CTM Wave 2 low) couldn't be lower than Wave 3 peak (CTM Wave 1 peak), which is at $53K (~0.5 Fib ext).
After the Wave 6 correction, BTC should continue its surge to its cycle peak (Wave 7-11).
What is the cycle peak given the current price action?
3. Based on past cycles, #BTC is on target to its cycle peak in December 2021.
In past cycles, BTC's price increased by 3.5X-4.4X from the Wave 6 low to its peak. If Wave 6 low is:
I will be posting a #BTC Cycle Peak Dash Board which contains information about:
1. On-chain peaking indicator 2. Countdown to projected cycle peak 3. Projected cycle peak prices & price gauges for:
a. Top Cap Model Rebuild
b. Fib Multipliers
c. BLX Model
Notes: 1. On-chain peaking indicators
Peaking indicator shows whether #BTC is peaking but doesn't give the timing. The closer the gauge is to 100%, the more likely BTC is peaking;
In ref. to 2017 Peak & In ref. to 2013 Peak shows how BTC performs in relation to past cycles.
2. Countdown to projected cycle peak
Top Cap Model Date: This is based on the no. of days elapsed between #BTC's mid-cycle correction & its cycle peak in past cycles. Est.: 12/20/21
60D VVOL Date: This is based on BTC's 60-Day Volatility. Est.: 12/29/21
๐ญ. ๐ ๐ถ๐ป๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐ ๐ฒ๐๐ฟ๐ถ๐ฐ๐
a. Hash Rate
Technically, the #BTC hash rate forms an ascending channel. After reaching the top part of the channel, it got rejected & is consolidating around the bottom of the channel. Let's see if will rebound from here.
Slightly bearish.
1b(i) The Hash Ribbon is a market indicator that assumes that #BTC's price tends to reach a bottom when miners capitulate & that's when BTC's price momentum switches from negative to positive- a good buying opportunity.
๐ญ๐ฎ. ๐ง๐ผ๐ฝ ๐๐ฎ๐ฝ ๐ ๐ผ๐ฑ๐ฒ๐น
This model is based on Willy Woo's Top Cap Model for tracking BTC's cycle peak. The bear phase bottom tracker is based on BTC's moving average price.
BTC hasn't peaked yet.
๐ญ๐ฏ. ๐๐ถ๐ฏ ๐ ๐๐น๐๐ถ๐ฝ๐น๐ถ๐ฒ๐ฟ๐
This model is based on Fib retracement & extension numbers as multiples of the 350D SMA of #BTC's price.
๐ญ๐ฎ. ๐ง๐ผ๐ฝ ๐๐ฎ๐ฝ ๐ ๐ผ๐ฑ๐ฒ๐น
This model is based on Willy Woo's Top Cap Model for tracking the peak & the bottom tracker is based on #BTC's moving average price.
BTC hasn't peaked yet.
๐ญ๐ฏ. ๐๐ถ๐ฏ ๐ ๐๐น๐๐ถ๐ฝ๐น๐ถ๐ฒ๐ฟ๐
This model is based on Fib retracement & extension numbers as multiples of the 350D SMA of #BTC's price.
#BTC's price action rhymes in each cycle. Using chart patterns & log fib retracement, the current rally high, point of lift-off to the cycle peak & peak price are determined.
TLDR:
Current Rally high: ~$71K
Lift-off: ~$83K
Cycle Peak: ~$250K
1a/ It is found that in each cycle around this time of the year, #BTC price will form two adjoined arcs similar to a cup & handle pattern.
The height of the smaller arc gives the price increase from the point of breakout to the rally high, which is also called #CTM Wave 2 Peak.
1b/ The height of the larger arc gives the price increase from the point of breakout to the lift-off price level, from which #BTC will rally to its blow-off top.
BTC just broke out of the smaller arc. Thus, the current rally high is ~$71K. The lift-off price level is ~$83K.
#BTC has been consolidating between $59K & $63K. Breaking ATH soon?
TLDR: Yes.
Revisit or even set new ATH ~10/31/21. Max. price for this rally is $70K-$73K
Why?
-Buy & Sell Oscillator & MRGO-14: Buy
-TI: Bullish
-Futures: Bullish w/ some selling
-Options: Bullish
-TA: Bullish
1/ MRGO-14 uses the difference in changes in #BTC's market & realized price to find buy/sell signals for BTC.
Green โก๏ธ Buy
Red โก๏ธ Sell
MGRO-14 has flipped green since 10/4/21.
2/ My #BTC Buy & Sell Oscillator has been >1 since 10/5/21.