Thread by @DrEricDing

FASTEST SURGE TO DATE—The #OmicronVarient is up swinging much faster in both new daily cases and positivity, than all previous waves in South Africa 🇿🇦, according to @nicd_sa data illustrated by @jburnmurdoch. This supports the faster transmission theory of #Omicron. 🧵

2) and the upswing in South Africa is not just localized to one area. It’s seen across most provinces together. That a bad sign too.

https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1466241638871834624

3) a small early upswing of probable #Omicron is likely happening in England too.

https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1466234026843205637

4) the only neutral news is that hospitalization rate is on pace with other waves. But this is a lagging indicator that is slow to report. But it doesn’t seem “milder” considering the 5x hospitalization increase in 2 weeks seen. Mortality data we have to still see.

5) Some say “but but but hospitalization tied, but cases faster means milder”… that’s not necessarily true. 🇿🇦 is now more heavily vaccinated than before. This would temper the rise in hospitalizations compared to earlier waves with less/no vaccines. John mentions this too.

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1465659959597797376

6) #Omicron has hugely displaced Delta in South Africa 🇿🇦 . #B11529 Omicron now sits around~ 80% while both lineages of Delta are now low.

Figure by @Mike_Honey_

7) Ummmm… Ghana has entered the #Omicron chat. In Accra 🇬🇭, #B11529 has also massively displace both older Delta strains. Omicron is now also 80% there.

Figure by @Mike_Honey_

8) What is the latest in estimate relative growth rate (transmission) of #Omicron vs #Delta? 5.2x!

This confirms @JPWeiland’s 5x last week and yesterday’s 4.5x relative transmission advantage. THAT. IS. HUGE.

https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1466076767404244995

9) random thoughts of a virologist I trust…. don’t delude yourself that #Omicron will be mild on some BS anecdotal stuff. The real data doesn’t support that so far.

https://twitter.com/hjelle_brian/status/1466130830254768130

10) hospitalizations meanwhile up 5x in 2 weeks in GP 🇿🇦

11) based on modeling of the Rt values, @JPWeiland estimates #Omicron to be ~4.5x of #DeltaVariant (3.0/0.67)

Assuming no changes in mitigations - which the likely is in recent days — which would make Omicron even faster if it’s since been tempered by more new mitigation.

12) here is how fast #OmicronVariant wave is surging. Positivity now over 12% nationwide. It took just 50 days to hit what took 70-75 days for other waves.

https://twitter.com/rid1tweets/status/1466456673409773571

13) What is partly explaining the surge? #Omicron has notable evasion against past immunity from past infections. Reinfections are soaring - 2.4x risk! See study below 👇

https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1466485884568670209

14) ACCELERATION— cases and hospitalizations continue to accelerate. If you look at the increase ⬆️ on a log scale… you can more easily identify the upswing in all the metrics.

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1466480113487392769

15) And yes hospitalization is getting worse… notice that as time goes, more hospitalizations are backfilled. It’s getting worse if you follow the data daily. I’m not trying to sensationalize— but it’s the clear conclusion from the data.

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1466480129375449097

16) Delayed hospitalization reporting…

👀 OBJECTS IN THE REARVIEW MIRROR MAY APPEAR SMALLER THAN THEY ARE!!! 👀

⚠️Bottomline hospitalizations are surging. Almost 10x rise in 2 weeks!