🔴Transmissibility or Virulence : What should really worry us ?
Since these two have been widely discussed, given #omicron is around. A short explainer 👇.
3 plots below - from ~2x of Rt value and 1/2 of hospitalization rates (less virulent) to basal value (~ Delta wave)
Since these two have been widely discussed, given #omicron is around. A short explainer 👇.
3 plots below - from ~2x of Rt value and 1/2 of hospitalization rates (less virulent) to basal value (~ Delta wave)
Rt is the effective reproductive no.
One could clearly see why 2x Rt would create a sharper and ⏫rate of hospitalizations.
For a less virulent and highly transmissible variant, assuming 1/2x hospitalization rate, this would still create a significant wave of hospitalizations.
One could clearly see why 2x Rt would create a sharper and ⏫rate of hospitalizations.
For a less virulent and highly transmissible variant, assuming 1/2x hospitalization rate, this would still create a significant wave of hospitalizations.
A much detailed mathematical basis to this was discussed in the past by @AdamJKucharski
https://twitter.com/adamjkucharski/status/1343567425107881986
Why is this important to discuss ?
The early and preliminary estimates of Rt from #Gauteng is now available , thanks to analysis from @lrossouw . See the detailed analysis at unsupervised.online/static/covid-1…
The context and Rt values for previous waves are also put in context.
The early and preliminary estimates of Rt from #Gauteng is now available , thanks to analysis from @lrossouw . See the detailed analysis at unsupervised.online/static/covid-1…
The context and Rt values for previous waves are also put in context.
What can we do ?
▶️ Vaccinate 💉all the remaining and eligible pop.
Especially the high risk groups (40y+ & people with comorbidities) without fail and urgency.
▶️ Ensure we diligently embrace 😷#masks #SocialDistancing and 🪟 #ventilation
▶️ Vaccinate 💉all the remaining and eligible pop.
Especially the high risk groups (40y+ & people with comorbidities) without fail and urgency.
▶️ Ensure we diligently embrace 😷#masks #SocialDistancing and 🪟 #ventilation
▶️And of-course 💉💉💉 boosters (when available). An update on the need given the context of growing evidence on #omicron is here by @neutranino:
thehindu.com/news/national/…
thehindu.com/news/national/…
The numbers (2x, 1/2x etc) are only descriptive purposes to make the point and may not reflect the estimates we might get for omicron. Looking forward to (re)estimates over the next couple of weeks.
Also to highlight the need to protect #HealthcareWorkers , in the case scenario of a sharp peak over a short period of time. A major determinant of available capacity during a wave would indeed be the availability of Healthcare workers to offer care.
What is the relation between Hospital load and increased COVID-19 related mortality ?
What is the relation between case load and excess deaths ?
An interesting analysis from #Israel 🇮🇱nature.com/articles/s4146…
What is the relation between case load and excess deaths ?
An interesting analysis from #Israel 🇮🇱nature.com/articles/s4146…
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