The five suspected #terrorists arrested in Finland today (though considering the police has had eyes on them for years we can most probably for all intents and purposes drop "suspected") represent a hardcore version of #accelerationism or #SiegeCulture. Explanatory thread below.
In short, they are inspired by James Mason's ideas that through terror a race war can be kicked off, and then the white state can rise from the ashes. The most (in)famous group to adhere to the theory is likely #AtomwaffenDivision.
Notable is that these organisations often work in small isolated groups without connection to the larger and more visible far-right networks, something which the Finnish police also pointed out.
So all in all good news that the police got them, let's hope they get locked up for quite some time 👍
Okay, time for another thread on everyone's favourite topic - the real cost of #F35 and can #Finland afford it in #HXhanke. The reason is that the Norwegian budget and Swiss acquisition costs are out, and they have caused quite a stir. 1/x #turpo=#säkpol
The Swiss number caused quite a stir, including talk about the aircraft having gone up 20% in cost since the decision was made. I don't quite get those figures, but an increase of 17% (5.07 Bn CHF to 5.95 Bn CHF). 2/x vbs.admin.ch/content/vbs-in…
A key detail here is that the exchange rate of USD to CHF has grown somewhat worse for the Swiss since February when the original figures came in, so I get an increase in USD of 13%. Still bad, but not quite on par with the dreaded 20% figure. 3/x
Seems western hunters flying to Africa to shoot rare species is again in the headlines, this time in Sweden. I understand why this makes people upset, however, the situation is more complex than evil wannabe-colonialists wanting zebra heads above their fireplace.
Some of the serious threats to African wildlife (to the extent such generalisations can be done to such a vast continent holding any number of different habitats) include poaching (due to either value of animal products or to protect crops and livestock) and habitat loss.
Obviously, these are driven by local developments, and biodiversity simply isn't as interesting to most people if it means your living wage is directly negatively affected by it (I will argue this is true for most westerners as well).
I don't know if there's a real risk for a Russian offensive, or if the movements are just part of the training pattern leading up to #Zapad21. However, this is one of my pet peeves - it's hard to tell an exercise from preparations for war. #turpo=#säkpolcorporalfrisk.com/2016/08/13/exe…
"The only thing differentiating war from maneuvers is the last stage on the last day. The concentration of forces and the logistics is the same for both.” Lt.Col. Ben-Porat, AMAN, on lessons from Soviet repression of the Prague Spring (quoted in Rabinovich’s ‘The Yom Kippur War’)
Kofman has written quite a bit on the recent #Russia.n movements, and is certainly correct to preach caution and ask if it is different this time re water crisis and spring being a good for war. However, there's three issues were I question the reasoning:
Table starting to be set. Have houseruled some of the deployments to slightly better portray the current situation. It's not perfect, but current BAP countries and EFP leads are there.
And then we'll go to two questions: do Russia grab islands? As part of the opening move we can land airborne troops on Bornholm and/or Gotland. This gives better sea control, but obviously tie up valuable forces. In the case of Gotland, it drags Sweden into the war.
Norwegian ship engine manufacturer #BergenEngines to be sold to #Transmashholding. Now questions in Norway about what it means that the manufacturer and maintainer for a number of their key defense and coast guards vessels will be owned by oligarks close to Putin. #turpo=#säkpol
Notable that one of the areas where Russia still seriously struggles with covering the suppliers lost due to post-#Crimea embargo is boat and ship propulsion.
One of the solutions has been to buy propulsion solutions sold for "civilian" use or routing them through third parties, but this require companies willing to sell with few questions asked (much of the #exportcontrol in the field hinges on companies doing their due diligence).
#Eurofighter (still prefer #Typhoon) is strongly pushing the European angle with most major European powers having a stake in the program. Total sovereignty over mission data was also a big deal, and the (re)newed focus on EW-capabilities was also promoted
The Eurofighter has a bunch of strong cards: the independence angle is a big deal for Finland, as is the large number of major operators (second only to F-35) and the fact that it is likely the premier #QRA platform of the lot.