BC public health is not doing math. We know that a chunk of transmission of #covid19 is by asymptomatic people. How can you break those chains of transmission if you're only testing symptomatic people? I don't understand. #math #bcpoli #FreeTheRATs

There's a whole component of epidemiology that involves stats. It's math: how many people does one person infect; how many of those go on to infect others, & over what space of time; what is the Rt value & is this exponential spread? You want to catch even ONE asymptomatic case.. Image
Breaking *one* chain of transmission can stop countless cases down the line. By not distributing #rapidtests to the public, isn't BC public health admitting they grasp neither asymptomatic transmission NOR the exponential function? #bcpoli #FreeTheRATs

makeagif.com/i/LCK3dg Image
If my mathematician dad were still alive, this would be driving him nuts. I'm almost glad he's not here to witness this.
PS How, after two years of this pandemic, can @Twitter's gif collection still not contain that famous 70s Fabergé Organics shampoo ad: "I told one friend, and she told two friends, and so on, and so on, and so on..." Simplest demonstration of exponential spread. Come on people

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More from @Lidsville

11 Dec
"It’s hard to look this in the eye. But COVID’s worst is coming" - Bruce Arthur, @TorontoStar

thestar.com/opinion/star-c… #covid19BC #Omicron #cdnpoli #bcpoli
@TorontoStar “Honestly, I’m not sure I have been as worried as I am now. Probably not..." - Dr. @BeateSander

"It’s hard for the human mind to grasp; part of that is the sheer bloody wall of exponential math. The numbers feel imaginary."
@TorontoStar @BeateSander "With a 400 % increase every week, Sander points out the numbers do something like this: 145 today, 600 in a week, 2,400 in two weeks, 9,600 in three weeks. That would be New Year’s Eve, and left unhindered it would mean almost 40,000 cases per day a week after that." #Omicron
Read 12 tweets
10 Dec
I sent this quote to a friend who works in health policy. His reply (pardon expletives):
"That is just.. f'g violent, what she said. Putting the onus back on people to deal with the fallout of her policies. But the thing I don’t understand is... " (cont'd)
.."But what I don't understand is this thing of "x is not a silver bullet, y is not a silver bullet.” Vaccination is not a silver bullet! Should we stop vaccinating? I mean, #Omicron proves that vaccination is not a silver bullet. None of these things are silver bullets"...
.."Hasn’t Dr. Henry herself used the 'layers of Swiss cheese' metaphor? Isn’t she the one who talks about “layers of protection”? How can she have it every which way? She’s just a politician.

Somebody just needs to say none of these measures are silver bullets.."

... (cont'd)
Read 4 tweets
9 Dec
You need to respond to this, @adriandix. Your ministry openly dodged reporter @PennyDaflos's questions. We don't pay you to run an opaque operation. You work for us. Come clean, start talking, and release the rapid tests to the public now. #bcpoli bc.ctvnews.ca/ministry-staff…
@adriandix @PennyDaflos Shall we review how much evidence there is that rapid tests work, and that BC health officials have been evasive, uncooperative, even negligent on this issue? This goes back a year. Start with this fantastic thread by @npescod #ReleasetheRATs #bcpoli
@adriandix @PennyDaflos @npescod Here's Bonnie last December & this December making untrue statements about rapid tests, followed by a counterpart in Nova Scotia who says that rapid tests work and are a crucial public health tool that should be handed over to the people. #FreeTheRATs
Read 5 tweets
2 Dec
POPPYCOCK. This false electricity panic must stop. This is nuclear/hydro industry-created panic, for these sectors' own benefit. It's as bad as "WE NEED MOAR SUPPLY" in housing. And it's Clean Energy Canada touting it, as usual. (Thread) #bcpoli #SiteC thestar.com/politics/feder…
If you want to understand the future of electricity you should listen to grid experts, not the industries that stand to profit from massive increases in electricity generation: #NuclearEnergy & #BigHydro. Please read this thread before continuing: #SiteC
Before continuing I want to say that I am disturbed that @SFU, my alma mater (@sfuCMNS), houses Clean Energy Canada under @SFUDialogue / Shauna Sylvester. CEC has done nothing but produce false, greenwashing cover for industry, incl #SiteC. Nuclear & Big Hydro are not "clean."
Read 9 tweets
1 Dec
This briefing by @Protect_BC starts NOW.

I'm going to try to live-tweet it, or at least the highlights. Do you have questions for Dr. David Fisman or Dr. Amy Tan? Attach them to the tweet quoted here (don't reply to my tweet or they won't see it) #bcpoli fb.me/e/1tgbo68Fb
@Protect_BC Here are the livestream links to todays's @Protect_BC briefing #bcpoli #covid19BC protectbc.ca/Livestream/
Dr. @DFisman talking about the fact that he seems to be able to speak more freely about BC #covid19BC issues than many scientists, doctors and others in BC can. @AmyTanMD saying we're going to chat about #Omicron and other issues today. Starting with the new variant:
Read 34 tweets
1 Dec
I still can't believe Bonnie Henry called Covid "endemic" today.
The US CDC gives a very clear definition of endemic but the fastest way to tell whether a disease is in a pandemic or endemic state is to ask if it's crushing the healthcare system. If yes: it's a pandemic. Media: please ask Henry to define "endemic."
People DM'd me about this tweet & have let me quote them here anonymously: "So around Sept a lot of public institutions including ours stopped having pandemic response plans. The mandate was to adopt a “communicable disease plan.” These are bizarre & Orwellian to read because.."
Read 8 tweets

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