Unfortunately I frequently come across the notion that #Omicron leads to milder disease and therefore there will not be another #lockdown. This notion is IMHO dangerously misleading as I will argue in this thread. We need to prepare for #wave5 immediately
What is the evidence to date?
1)The recent superspreader events show that transmissibility of Omicron is very high
2)The existing neutralization studies and the high case numbers in SA show that most of the population can be re-infected (also shown here papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…)
1)The recent superspreader events show that transmissibility of Omicron is very high
2)The existing neutralization studies and the high case numbers in SA show that most of the population can be re-infected (also shown here papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…)
What are the consequences vs the current wave?
1)The virus faces a large pool of susceptibles again which means
a)A lot of people can transmit and fall ill at the same time
b) In contrast to the current wave, we cannot count on the infection networks burning out fast,
1)The virus faces a large pool of susceptibles again which means
a)A lot of people can transmit and fall ill at the same time
b) In contrast to the current wave, we cannot count on the infection networks burning out fast,
as vaccination and natural immunity are no longer effective
c) Even worse, we are on the opposite side of network effects again, such that massive increases in case numbers are possible again
c) Even worse, we are on the opposite side of network effects again, such that massive increases in case numbers are possible again
2)Even if disease severity is lower, hospitals will be overwhelmed fast
a) The aforementioned effects lead to high case numbers within and over a short period of time
b) Mild cases will spread more
a) The aforementioned effects lead to high case numbers within and over a short period of time
b) Mild cases will spread more
c) People in higher age groups and with co-morbidities have worse immune response to vaccination, are more prone for severe disease and are susceptible in high numbers again
d) Recently introduced therapy options do not seem to work well against Omicron
d) Recently introduced therapy options do not seem to work well against Omicron
To illustrate, look at the Omicron curve in SA. While we cannot easily compare SA with Europe or North America, the relation to the other waves is staggering 
An easy calculation to illustrate:
Let’s assume that in the current wave, 3% of people need hospital care, and with Omicron it is 2% (which is not even proven!). If case numbers were 10,000 per day in the current wave, 200 people needed hospital care.
Let’s assume that in the current wave, 3% of people need hospital care, and with Omicron it is 2% (which is not even proven!). If case numbers were 10,000 per day in the current wave, 200 people needed hospital care.
However, given the evidence, we can easily expect case numbers of 40,000 upwards, which makes 800 new hospital cases a day and with no expectation of a dip for quite some time.
What needs to be done?
It was never more important to #Flattenthecurve than it is now. We need to vaccinate but also employ all measures at our disposal as in @MackayIM 's nice Swiss cheese model. And we need to act NOW, as we can expect Omicron to take over within weeks.
It was never more important to #Flattenthecurve than it is now. We need to vaccinate but also employ all measures at our disposal as in @MackayIM 's nice Swiss cheese model. And we need to act NOW, as we can expect Omicron to take over within weeks.
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