There has been some well deserved praise for Biden administration's handling of communication with allies following the call with Putin. But I lean towards "the glass is half empty" camp when it comes to grading the overall performance of the Biden team. #🧵 👉
2) Of course,emergency calls,intelligence sharing and Zoom meetings are all necessary part of the playbook. But this is all reaction to prior mistakes (outrage among allies) Biden's announcement of dialogue with "major NATO allies" was one such false move. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
3) What is missing (still, despite numerous calls and friendly advice) is a structured, planned high-level dialogue that would prevent us and our U.S. ally from being taken by surprise, blindsided and left wondering what is really going on.
4) I would like to think that indeed nothing has yet been put on the table when it comes to Ukraine and/or status of NATO's eastern flank. Unfortunately, I know the Russians too well, and if they are putting forward a list of demands 👉 they are getting ready for negotiations.👇
5) And as long as they negotiate, you can forget any kind of "de-escalation". They would demand concessions! Troops are supposed to be a leverage and so the build-up is likely to continue,with possible changes of dynamics but not of the general direction.
6) This is why we urgently need a strategic dialogue about our common security, the outlook beyond the immediate future, and what we can do together. There are Europeans who know Putin's Russia really well, talking to them can only enhance Biden's hand! #WeAreNATO!
7) The transatlantic bond remains America's most robust relationship, but as such it is being treated as a litmus test of U.S. credibility by adversaries all around the world. If they see cracks on U.S ability to control and remain engaged-they will push!
8) All know the Chinese are fast learners. We can be sure they follow the Biden administration's approach to Russia's demands very closely and will ask a simple question: if Ukraine can be thrown under the bus why Taiwan is to be defended? #END.
This is👇a good representation of 🇫🇷 perspective by great @SylvieKauffmann
My 2 related cents:
In the 21st century what defines the power status is i.a the number of allies a state has, but also its ability to mobilize their support quickly.🧵 1/9 nytimes.com/2021/09/22/opi…
So in theory after Brexit France is significantly stronger than the UK – as potentially it can mobilize allies from the EU quicker, while the UK doesn’t have this luxury anymore – and its allies are first and foremost America’s allies 2/9
However, France “lost” the submarine case to #AUKUS, because in the Pacific it appeared to be alone. The EU has been nowhere around. The submarine contract wasn’t an European endeavour, but solely a French one, in spite of ex-post claims by French politicians 3/9
👉 During today’s press conference Polish FM @RauZbigniew summed up 🇵🇱 successful evacuation from Kabul (1232 ppl)
& two decades of Poland’s engagement in #Afghanistan 👉 He said that it was a spectacular foreign policy success for a number of reasons [thread 1/9]
After #9/11, PL declared allied solidarity with the United States. A NATO member since 1999, Poland dispatched troops to Afghanistan, thus becoming a contributor, and not just a consumer of U.S. & #NATO security guarantees. 2/9
.@NATO was expected to „get out of area or out of business". Poland considered strengthening NATO to be in its vital national interest. All presidents, PMs&FMs since 1999 have been working tirelessly towards that goal. Afghan operation was central to it.
2) In fact Polish political thought provided an answer long ago. Since Poles and other Russia's neighbours demand their right to independence, respect to sovereignty and territorial integrity, they have no right to refuse these same rights to Russians.
3) The fact of the matter is however that for the nations living between imperial Russia & Germany, the very term „independence” always meant „independence from Russia & Germany” and their autocratic, imperial domination.... en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russifica…
Great @AmbDanFried is a top-notch expert on Central & Eastern Europe so it’s no surprise that he called attention to the “Declaration of Joint European Heritage and Common Values” (the Vilnius Declaration) signed by the FMs🇱🇹🇵🇱🇺🇦(Text here: gov.pl/web/diplomacy/…) Thread 1/20
2) The Vilnius Declaration goes beyond political symbolism - an act of political homage paid to the republican, democratic, and freedom traditions of the ancient Commonwealth. The signatories see it a driving force of today's political cooperation of 🇱🇹-🇵🇱-🇺🇦.
3) It's a revolutionary document, that can be regarded as a symbolic turning point foretelling the end of an ongoing 150 year process of nationalizing the past by Lithuanians, Poles & Ukrainians, an unavoidable phase for any nation&state building process. gov.pl/web/diplomacy/…
There’s rumour about confidential negotiations btn the Biden admin and the German gov. Their goal: to find a way out of the mess in which the whole transatlantic community finds itself because of Merkel’s support for Putin’s pipeline—Nord Stream 2 #THREAD
2/ The preferred solution for the Biden team would be to deny Putin the ability to exercise energy blackmail against Central Europe and Ukraine, while at the same time foregoing sanctions against Germany.
3/ Early in his career, Biden’s Secretary of State Anthony @SecBlinken had analyzed the decision of the Reagan administration not to levy sanctions against West Europeans for building the Siberian pipeline with the Soviets.
Stwierdzenie to daje asumpt do krótkiej akcji edukacyjnej. Dziś polskie siły zbrojne pełnią dokładnie taką samą funkcję, w razie konieczności muszą dostarczyć Polsce argumentów politycznych, np. na rzecz tezy, że Polska sprzeciwia się zmianie granic siłą...1)
Przeciwnik będzie dążył do wzbudzenia w polskim społeczeństwie wątpliwości, czy warto? Czy warto ryzykować, być może wojnę jądrową która zakończy znany nam świat, aby sprzeciwić się stworzeniu "korytarza" do Królewca przez polskie terytorium? Czy warto bronić Suwałk? A Wilna? 2).
Na kalulację zysków i strat potencjalnego przeciwnika wpływa fakt istnienienia ryzyka, że jakakolwiek próba stworzenia takiego "korytarza" metodą faktów dokonanych, np. lądowaniem "zielonych ludzików" w Suwałkach, może się skończyć jądrową dekapitacją jego przywództwa...3)