Thread by @jeremyrhammond

1/ Here's an example of how parents are being lied to about the safety of COVID-19 vaccines for children.

2/ In this @nytimes article, @AmerAcadPeds president claims "the risk of developing myocarditis after a Covid-19 infection is much higher than the risk of developing myocarditis after the vaccine."
nytimes.com/2021/10/26/opi…

3/ To support that claim, he links to this AAP article reporting on 2 CDC studies, the authors of 1 of which "say their findings support health officials’ assertions that the benefits of vaccination outweigh the risks."
publications.aap.org/aapnews/news/1…

4/ Evidently, the @AmerAcadPeds never bothered to examine that data to verify whether the CDC researchers were being honest about what it shows. They were not.

5/ The AAP article reports that the 1st CDC study found an increased risk of myocarditis among children in the hospital with a COVID-19 diagnosis compared to hospitalized children without COVID-19.

It did not compare the risk of myocarditis with infection vs vaccination.

6/ AAP then reports that the 2nd CDC study found an increased risk of myocarditis among males aged 12-29 years of 39 to 47 cases for every million children fully vaccinated (at least 1/25,641).

It also did not compare the risk of myocarditis from infection vs vaccination.

7/ Note that we cannot conclude that the risk of myocarditis is greater from infection than vaccination from the information provided in the AAP article.

8/ Just because there is an increased risk of myocarditis with COVID-19 and it is "rare" after vaccination does not mean that the risk is lower with vaccination vs infection.

We need to actually do the comparison and assess absolute risk, which we CAN do from the 2 studies.

9/ The 1st CDC study found the risk of myocarditis among hospitalized children under age 16 with a COVID-19 diagnosis to be 0.133%, or 1 in 752 (and 0.146% overall for all ages, or 1 in 685.)
cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/7…

10/ So, to do the comparison, we need to know how many children need to be fully vaccinated to prevent 1 case of COVID-19-related myocarditis, i.e, to prevent 752 hospitalizations.

11/ The 2nd CDC study gives us such an estimate: Table 2: 215 hospitalizations among children aged 12-17 per 1 million fully vaccinated children. So, NNV to prevent 1 child hospitalization = 4651 children fully vaccinated.
cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/7…

12/ Therefore, to prevent 1 case of COVID-19-related myocarditis, 4651 x 752 = 3,497,552 children need to be fully vaccinated.

13/ Given the CDC's own data, therefore, for every 1 case of COVID-19-related myocarditis prevented, we can expect at least 3,497,552/24,641 = 142 cases of vaccine-related myocarditis among children.

14/ Therefore, the very primary source data cited by the @AmerAcadPeds president to support the claim that the risk of myocarditis is greater from infection than from vaccination shows precisely the opposite.

#InformedConsent cannot occur when parents are being so lied to.