1/There are so many things going on with #COVID19 right now. In some respects, it seems like March 2020 again, even though it's not.
One reason COVID19 is bewildering right now is that no one is going the same speed on the highway.
One reason COVID19 is bewildering right now is that no one is going the same speed on the highway.
2/On the highway, people driving faster than you are maniacs.
And people going slower than you are pokey.
And people going slower than you are pokey.
3/Right now, in the face of Omicron, COVID is similar.
No two people conceive of their COVID risk in precisely the same way. That creates mismatches of perception, much like driving down a long stretch the highway.
No two people conceive of their COVID risk in precisely the same way. That creates mismatches of perception, much like driving down a long stretch the highway.
4/People who approach Omicron more cautiously than you are overreacting worrywarts.
People who are more cavalier than you are unthinking COVID-deniers.
It's a (falsely) dichotomous world of speeders and slowpokes, and you are stuck in the conceptual middle.
People who are more cavalier than you are unthinking COVID-deniers.
It's a (falsely) dichotomous world of speeders and slowpokes, and you are stuck in the conceptual middle.
5/It's understandable that no two people conceive of their COVID risk in precisely the same manner.
No two people have identical pre-existing health conditions that might portend worse COVID outcomes (and a more cautious approach).
No two people have identical pre-existing health conditions that might portend worse COVID outcomes (and a more cautious approach).
6/Add to that the fact that immunity is not a binary phenomenon. It's a spectrum based on prior infection, the array of vaccines taken, when they were taken, etc.
The world is messy right now, and that makes it blurry, like being on a highway with only speeders and slowpokes.
The world is messy right now, and that makes it blurry, like being on a highway with only speeders and slowpokes.
7/Into that topsy-turvy world comes Omicron, which complicates the risk calculus.
We know little of the specifics around how contagious, severe, and immune evasive Omicron is. Nor do we know how effective the current armamentarium of drugs will be.
We know little of the specifics around how contagious, severe, and immune evasive Omicron is. Nor do we know how effective the current armamentarium of drugs will be.
8/And some early studies on things like severity conflict with one another, given the speeders and the slowpokes support for their views.
Omicron is, in real time, changing the informal norms that many of us were just getting used to.
Omicron is, in real time, changing the informal norms that many of us were just getting used to.
9/But another consequences of the world of speeders and slowpokes is that it's lonely.
Just as you can be alone on the highway because people either pass you or you pass them, it's easy to find yourself on a metaphorical lost highway when it comes to COVID risk tolerance.
Just as you can be alone on the highway because people either pass you or you pass them, it's easy to find yourself on a metaphorical lost highway when it comes to COVID risk tolerance.
10/Even within the same family, peoples' risk tolerances can vary, making the social and cognitive isolation even more pronounced.
11/Example: "Why am I the only one who really seems to understand what's going on with COVID? Why is no one in my family taking Omicron seriously? Also, my partner's family needs to lighten up: you can go outside without a mask on."
Being stuck in the middle is lonely.
Being stuck in the middle is lonely.
12/What can we do about this? First, it's important to understand that not everyone has the same risk tolerance.
Second, recognize that we all come at uncertain situations with our own cognitive biases.
Second, recognize that we all come at uncertain situations with our own cognitive biases.
13/For some, the precautionary principle carries the day.
For others, it's "jump and the net will appear." Among the most pernicious bias from both speeders and slowpokes is confirmation bias. It allows zealots to always be right by cherry picking data they find compelling.
For others, it's "jump and the net will appear." Among the most pernicious bias from both speeders and slowpokes is confirmation bias. It allows zealots to always be right by cherry picking data they find compelling.
14/Social media exacerbates this confirmation bias, by allowing for the creation of virtual echo chambers.
Unless you seek it, it's easy to create a social media ecosystem that proves that all your preconceptions are right. (I see the irony of posting this on social media.)
Unless you seek it, it's easy to create a social media ecosystem that proves that all your preconceptions are right. (I see the irony of posting this on social media.)
15/Third, it's important to recognize that, for many, their views on COVID have become part of their identity. It's difficult to attempt to change views that are indissolubly intertwined with identity.
16/It's important to keep in mind that people will defend fiercely anything that challenges their identify. This is a common psychological defense mechanism. We can, however, understand those differing views and look for places where we agree and build on those.
17/The final thing I try to do is assume some degree of good, or at least benign, intention.
In real life (not social media) not many people are trying to be pernicious.
In real life (not social media) not many people are trying to be pernicious.
18/With respect to COVID19, they are coming at a messy, blurry world in their own lane and, much like the highway.
They are unlikely to be traveling at exactly the same speed as you at precisely the same time.
Maybe they'll slow down, maybe they'll speed up. Be patient.
They are unlikely to be traveling at exactly the same speed as you at precisely the same time.
Maybe they'll slow down, maybe they'll speed up. Be patient.
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