Thread by @miamalan

[Thread] 1. SA's #Omicron #COVID19 wave seems to have turned (cautiously optimistic view).
@rid1tweets:
1. Much steeper wave than previous waves, but also much shorter
2. Half the nr of days to reach the Omicron peak vs. peaks of other waves

https://twitter.com/rid1tweets/status/1473485300768940040

2. The 7 day moving average of new #COVID19 cases for #Omicron (at what seems/could be the peak of the wave) = 23 4237 vs.
- #Delta peak 19,956
- Beta peak 19,042
- D614G peak 12,584

(numbers via @CAPRISAOfficial and @HealthZA)

3. Here are the 7-day moving averages of new #COVID19SA cases, hospitalisations and in-hospital #COVID deaths up until 19 Dec (via @CAPRISAOfficial, @nicd_sa and DATCOV):
- Hospital admissions and deaths, at this stage, still significantly lower than in previous waves.

4. Test positivity rates (% of tests coming out +) until 19 Dec:
1. Mostly 30% +
2. Tu's 7 day-moving average (via @nicd_sa) = 30.1%

5. Provinces: LP, MP, FS, KZN = all show EARLY signs of their #Omicron waves turning.
- Data via @CAPRISAOfficial and @heatlhza)

6. WC, EC = early signs of turning; GP = confirmed to have turned.
@hivepi, @nicd_sa:
- GP cases peaked on 9 Dec @ 97% of #Delta
- GP admissions peaked on 12 Dec @ 46% of Delta
- Deaths peaked @ 8% of Delta (still rising)
bit.ly/3spGthq

7. Northern Cape = no signs of new #COVID19SA cases decreasing by 19 Dec.

8. @Dr_Groome, @nicd_sa:
Diffs between 3rd and 4th wave:
- In 3rd (#Delta) wave provinces started their waves at very different points in time
- In 4th (#Omicron) wave provinces = seeing their increase in cases and start of waves at a much closer point in time

9. Reasons behind fewer hospitalisations/deaths (so less severe disease, at this stage) could be:
1. Up to 70% of population in some provinces = previously infected (natural immunity)
2. Vaccination (44.5% of adults = 1 dose of vaccine)
3. Most hospitalisations = unvaccinated

10. #COVID19 vaccination coverage of adults (18+) in SA up until 19 Dec (via @CAPRISAOfficial and @HealthZA):
- 1 dose: 44%
- fully vaccinated: 39%

11. For the latest data on #Omicron hospitalisations, severity of cases, % of children admitted to hospital in SA, etc, @nicd_sa media briefing at 12 pm today. I'll be live tweeting.