#Ramsdale’s shot stopping has been excellent, my model predicts he has saved #AFC ~3 goals more than an average #PL shot stopper would’ve thus far!
He’s basically only conceded vs close range shots in the corners & has pulled a few shots out of the top corners!
Shot Stopping:
His Best 3 Saves (Lowest ExSave Saves Made) are below 😮:
1. 31% Save Probability vs Bowen
2. 52% Save Probability vs Maddison
3. 57% Save Probability vs Moura
They highlight #Ramsdale big strength, his agility & ability to cover huge amounts of the goal area.
Shot Stopping:
His Worst 3 Goals Conceded (Highest ExSave Goals Conceded) are below 😔:
1. 64% Save Probability vs Son
2. 61% Save Probability vs Edouard
3. 55% Save Probability vs Bruno
They highlight how #Ramsdale can occasionally gets his pre shot weight distribution wrong
Handling:
#Ramsdale’s handling has not been at the same level as his shot stopping, & while he has only conceded once from a rebound, my model finds he has presented the opposition with ~1.5 more ExG than the avg #PL GK would be expected to given the shots he’s faced!
#Ramsdale’s handling is something he will want to work on & I think he definitely has potential to improve this as his handling errors thus far have mainly been down to lapses in concentration & suboptimal decision making in terms of shot stopping technique selection.
1v1 Stopping:
#Ramsdale’s 1v1 stopping has been out of this world! My model predicts he has saved #AFC ~5 goals more than an average #PL shot stopper would’ve thus far!
His bravery & excellent decision making have been vital in him saving an incredible 13 of the 16 1v1s faced!
1v1 Stopping:
His Best 3 1v1 Saves (Lowest ExSave Saves Made) are below 😮:
1. 36% Save Probability vs Mane
2. 40% Save Probability vs Jota
3. 57% Save Probability vs Iwobi
They highlight #Ramsdale’s ability to get close to the striker & spread himself extremely effectively.
Cross Claiming:
#Ramsdale’s been solid at dealing with crosses into the box.
My model finds he has prevented ~0.31 ExG per game due to claims (0.06 ExG higher than an avg #PL GK), that he frequently opts to catch (71% of the time) & has only attempted a claim & failed once!
My model finds he has prevented just ~0.02 ExG per game due to sweeps (0.08 ExG less than an avg #PL GK), this is low due to both lack of activity & a low success rate
It will be interesting to see if he can improve this!
Distribution:
Ramsdale’s distribution has been class, his ability to play clipped balls into #AFC’s CFs & low passes into #AFC’s CMs has revolutionised the way #Arsenal can build from the back. He’s also been awesome at retaining possession when the opposition have pressed him.
Thus #Ramsdale has been class & while he does occasionally make saves harder for himself he is not a camera save merchant & is a shout for signing of the season!
Conclusions:
#Ramsdale’s exceptional form has been driven by his ability to stop almost every 1v1 he has faced & fly across goal to claw shots out of the corners!
His command of the box has also been strong however there is room for improvement in his handling & sweeping!
I hope this was a fun early Christmas present for everyone interested in #Ramsdale, #Arsenal, & #Goalkeeping & I hope it was a nice bit of Christmas Eve reading!
If I was to do a similar thread for another goalkeeper in the #PremierLeague who would you like to see me do first?
I just want a rough idea of which #PL GK interests most of my followers!
Merry Christmas everyone!
If you enjoyed this thread here is a video I did with @LatteFirm a few weeks back about #Ramsdale & his performances up to that point, the majority of the conclusions are the same so if you prefer a video format check it out!
Has #Ederson turned a corner regarding his issues with long range 1v1s?
Yesterday he positioned himself perfectly inside his 6yrd box during this long range 1v1 thus allowing his defender to pressure the ball while maximising the finish difficulty for the striker!
#SOUMCI #MCFC
#Ederson highlighted how waiting deep is not a passive strategy!
As GKs should only wait deep until the CF gets close enough that the GK will not have enough reaction time to make a save, which is what #Ederson did as he rushed & smothered once the CF was within 14yrd of goal!
#Ederson has had huge problems with 1v1 situations like these in the past as he has rushed out too soon & found himself at the PK spot (rather than the 6yrd box) which gifts the opposition CF simpler finishes like chips & sidefoots while also not allowing his CBs to get back!
If #DeGea had rushed out to engage this touch he would’ve turned a 38% goal probability chance into a 61% goal probability chance as MA could’ve easily rounded him or chipped him!
By waiting he dictated the 1v1 to MA & made him make a decision, MA chose to take another touch…
Rather than continuing to stay deep #DeGea realised that now MA was close enough that his reaction time may not be enough to save the shot so he rushed & formed the premeditated block barrier reducing the goal probability to 34%!
#Karius made 8 saves vs #MUFC, but GKing is about quality not quantity!
5 of the saves had xSave>99% thus #PremierLeague GKs save them every time!
The 2 interesting & difficult saves were the 1v1 vs #Bruno & #Weghorst’s long range shot! Which beat #PL GKs 41% & 29% of the time!
It was these saves whose difficulty outweighed the 2 goals #Karius conceded meaning #Karius saved an above expected amount of shots in the #LeagueCupFinal
#Karius could do nothing with the #Casemiro goal (xSave probability<5%) but the #Rashford goal was a little more interesting
#DeGea made the save look easy & made the save far easier for himself due to his top class decision to hold deep & then use his top hand. This made a difficult situation comfortable!
The GK xG model shown above looks at every shot faced, pass received, cross faced & through ball faced & calculates the probability of a goal occurring for & against the GK’s team before the event & after the event occurs!
Thus it measures & evaluates every action a GKs makes!
This allows all GKs to be given a single number measured in goals called
“Total Value in Goals”
Which describes the GK’s value to their side vs having a league average GK & takes into account everything they do meaning GKs of vastly different styles can be fairly compared!
When receiving the ball under pressure, both #Chelsea GKs have been below the #PremierLeague standard!
#Mendy has cost #CFC 0.52 xG more than the avg #PL GK would be expected to if they received the ball in the same situations (this is heavily influenced by his mistake vs Leeds)
Similarly #Kepa has cost #CFC 0.59 xG more than the avg #PL GK would be expected to if they received the ball in the same situations as he did in his last 15 #PremierLeague games, #Kepa’s numbers here are heavily influenced by his mistake vs #Liverpool which #Mane capitalised on!