THREAD:

How good has #Ramsdale been for #Arsenal so far?

I’ve seen him described as both “the signing of the season” & “a camera save merchant” but what does the data say?

In this thread I will breakdown his performance in all areas of goalkeeping using my bespoke models

#AFC
Shot Stopping:

#Ramsdale’s shot stopping has been excellent, my model predicts he has saved #AFC ~3 goals more than an average #PL shot stopper would’ve thus far!

He’s basically only conceded vs close range shots in the corners & has pulled a few shots out of the top corners!
Shot Stopping:

His Best 3 Saves (Lowest ExSave Saves Made) are below 😮:

1. 31% Save Probability vs Bowen

2. 52% Save Probability vs Maddison

3. 57% Save Probability vs Moura

They highlight #Ramsdale big strength, his agility & ability to cover huge amounts of the goal area.
Shot Stopping:
His Worst 3 Goals Conceded (Highest ExSave Goals Conceded) are below 😔:

1. 64% Save Probability vs Son

2. 61% Save Probability vs Edouard

3. 55% Save Probability vs Bruno

They highlight how #Ramsdale can occasionally gets his pre shot weight distribution wrong
Handling:

#Ramsdale’s handling has not been at the same level as his shot stopping, & while he has only conceded once from a rebound, my model finds he has presented the opposition with ~1.5 more ExG than the avg #PL GK would be expected to given the shots he’s faced!

#AFC
Handling:

#Ramsdale’s handling is something he will want to work on & I think he definitely has potential to improve this as his handling errors thus far have mainly been down to lapses in concentration & suboptimal decision making in terms of shot stopping technique selection.
1v1 Stopping:

#Ramsdale’s 1v1 stopping has been out of this world! My model predicts he has saved #AFC ~5 goals more than an average #PL shot stopper would’ve thus far!

His bravery & excellent decision making have been vital in him saving an incredible 13 of the 16 1v1s faced!
1v1 Stopping:

His Best 3 1v1 Saves (Lowest ExSave Saves Made) are below 😮:

1. 36% Save Probability vs Mane

2. 40% Save Probability vs Jota

3. 57% Save Probability vs Iwobi

They highlight #Ramsdale’s ability to get close to the striker & spread himself extremely effectively.
Cross Claiming:

#Ramsdale’s been solid at dealing with crosses into the box.

My model finds he has prevented ~0.31 ExG per game due to claims (0.06 ExG higher than an avg #PL GK), that he frequently opts to catch (71% of the time) & has only attempted a claim & failed once!
Sweeping:

#Ramsdale’s sweeping is an area of concern!

My model finds he has prevented just ~0.02 ExG per game due to sweeps (0.08 ExG less than an avg #PL GK), this is low due to both lack of activity & a low success rate

It will be interesting to see if he can improve this!
Distribution:

Ramsdale’s distribution has been class, his ability to play clipped balls into #AFC’s CFs & low passes into #AFC’s CMs has revolutionised the way #Arsenal can build from the back. He’s also been awesome at retaining possession when the opposition have pressed him.
Conclusions:

Overall #Ramsdale has been +0.45 goals per game above avg for #AFC

(last year #Leno was +0.21)

Thus #Ramsdale has been class & while he does occasionally make saves harder for himself he is not a camera save merchant & is a shout for signing of the season!
Conclusions:

#Ramsdale’s exceptional form has been driven by his ability to stop almost every 1v1 he has faced & fly across goal to claw shots out of the corners!

His command of the box has also been strong however there is room for improvement in his handling & sweeping!

#AFC
That’s the thread!

Merry Christmas everyone!

I hope this was a fun early Christmas present for everyone interested in #Ramsdale, #Arsenal, & #Goalkeeping & I hope it was a nice bit of Christmas Eve reading!
If I was to do a similar thread for another goalkeeper in the #PremierLeague who would you like to see me do first?

I just want a rough idea of which #PL GK interests most of my followers!
Merry Christmas everyone!

If you enjoyed this thread here is a video I did with @LatteFirm a few weeks back about #Ramsdale & his performances up to that point, the majority of the conclusions are the same so if you prefer a video format check it out!

#AFC #Arsenal #GKUnion

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More from @Jhdharrison1

3 Nov
Last night was rough for #DeGea

The 1st goal was a textbook shot stopping technique selection mistake

The shot went next to DDG’s right foot but rather than go with his foot he went with his hand

It was odd to see as DDG’s shot stopping technique selection is usually flawless!
I actually thought #DeGea’s footwork before the shot occurred was excellent & it got him into a great position to make the save but his shot stopping technique selection let him down at the last moment & meant he couldn’t make the save!

#MUFC #UCL #ATAMUN
The 1st goal was a mistake but I am way more concerned about the 2nd.

Even though #DeGea had ample time to judge the 1v1 would be from close range he failed to get close enough to the ball to maximise the goal area covered & snuff out the shot.

He needed to be on top of the CF!
Read 11 tweets
1 Nov
My models view of #Ramsdale’s FK save:

He was well positioned as he was stood on the line between the ball & the outside of the wall!

It was a good, but not unbelievable, save. My model finds such a FK gets saved ~50% of the time due to its low speed & distance from the post! Image
I’ve seen the save described on Twitter as both the save of the season & poor positioning followed by a slow recovery!

As usual the truth is between the two & I should make it clear here that saving a 50/50 shot is a lot closer to the save of the season than poor GKing!

#AFC Image
I should add that #Ramsdale had a phenomenal game, saving 4 out of 4 1v1s!

Which is unreal!

If you run all the shots he faced through my model you find #Ramsdale saved #AFC in total 2.38 goals above average which in a 2-0 win means he literally won them the game! Image
Read 4 tweets
29 Oct
#DeGea’s ability to deal with crosses has quite rightly been criticised.

In the #PremierLeague #DeGea has only prevented 6 opposition chances occurring by claiming crosses!

My model finds this lack of activity means #MUFC concede on average an additional 0.14 ExG every game!
In comparison #Alisson of #LFC has prevented 18 opposition chances occurring by claiming crosses & #Alisson has played 90 fewer minutes!

This difference in cross claiming ability corresponds to #LFC facing on average roughly 0.36 fewer ExG per game in comparison to #MUFC!
Additionally #DeGea’s sweeping numbers have also been low this season.

In the #PremierLeague #DeGea has only prevented 4 opposition chances occurring by sweeping throughballs!

My model finds this lack of activity means #MUFC concede on average an additional 0.07 ExG every game!
Read 9 tweets
23 Oct
I’ve seen this describe as a wonder save but it’s a decision making error followed by a good recovery

My 1v1 model predicts this to be scored 2% of the time if the GK holds deep while if the GK rushes, like #Mendy, it is scored 64% of the time

He made it way harder for himself!
I think #Mendy is a top GK by the way & he’s made many great saves this season but just because a GK is good doesn’t mean we should praise them regardless of how good their goalkeeping actually is!

Outcomes shouldn’t dictate analysis, processes should!
If anything this save should actually worry #Chelsea fans a bit as it is reminiscent of an issue #Mendy had last year when he gave away soft goals vs #LUFC & #EFC

Hopefully for #CFC fans it was a 1 off bad decision & it won’t happen again unlike in the middle part of last year.
Read 4 tweets
23 Oct
#Ramsdale’s distribution last night was unreal!

All 12 of his open play passes resulted in unpressurised #AFC possession & made it more likely that #AFC scored next!

Additionally 7 of those passes successfully broke #AVFC lines & took multiple players out of the game!

#FNF
What a ball this was

It’s unbelievable awareness to spot the run, then exceptional technique to pick it out!

Being able to set up 2 v 3 situations from the GK is so useful

This pass was certainly the standout moment for me but importantly it was not an isolated incident at all
This pass map is genuinely outrageous!

I don’t think I have ever seen a GK record a 100% successful & positive open play game where they were pressed on 40% of their passes & where they attempted to break the oppositions formation with 67% of their passes!
Read 4 tweets
22 Oct
Ah I feel for #Martinez, shuffling around on his line pre shot & ending up on the left side of his goal cost him those extra inches that would’ve allowed him to parry the ball away from danger!

At the same time it was potentially the movement that put PEM off so it’s a hard one!
Obviously it was a top top penalty save but you could instantly tell by #Martinez’s reaction that he was gutted with the fact he didn’t manage to push it out wide.

I don’t think #Martinez should be too harsh on himself thought as I think it was just smart timing from Auba
I always say to penalty takers if the GK bounces around side to side on the line time it so they are on the wrong side as you strike the ball as their weight will all be on that side & it will be very difficult for them to get all the way across goal & that’s what Auba did
Read 4 tweets

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