Thread by @USMortality

JUST IN: Final Germany Age-Adjusted Mortality Update for 2021!
> 2020: Excess of +1.6%
> 2021: Excess of +1.8%

1/n
#Covid #Covid19 #Corona #Coronavirus

Here's the time series:

By quarter:
> Q4/2020: Excess +9.3%
> Q4/2021: Excess +10.6%

Covid-19 matches excess mortality pretty well, however in the sum it replaced flu almost 1:1!

If there weren't any COVID-19 deaths, this is what the mortality figures would look like!

To get to exactly 0% excess mortality, Germany would have still to have 87% of it's COVID-19 deaths.

Sources & Calculations: docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…

By age groups 0-44:

By age groups 45-64:

By age groups 65-84:

By age groups 85+:

Sheet: docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…

Matrix for each German state (up to week 49/2021):

Difference Matrix for each German state (up to week 49/2021):

Sheet: docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…

For each individual state, see the Toolbox here: docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…

E.g. here Saxony/Sachsen which has the highest excess mortality in Germany so far!

Two things to keep in mind for the German state comparison, though!

> Age bins provided by @destatis are too coarse! 0-65, etc.
> Excess mortality correlates very well with obesity levels by German state:

https://twitter.com/orwell2022/status/1470857044391612420?s=20

Also based on the above Difference Matrix, we can look how the states are doing this year and correlate this to the vaccination levels!

There's no correlation R2=0.02, p=0.93!

Ultimately we must look at all-cause deaths by vaccination status in order to assess any effect!

Updated Obesity map, h/t @orwell2022