[THREAD] @IRSEM1’s report on “Chinese Influence Operations: A Machiavellian moment” by @PaulCharon and myself is now available in English! Download the full version (more than 650 pages, 3000 footnotes) on irsem.fr/report.html
The result of 2 years of work, interviews in about 20 countries, analysis of sources in Chinese, combined with the available scientific literature and OSINT tools, this report offers a relatively comprehensive overview of Chinese influence operations across the globe.
It shows that, since about 2017, the Party-State has entered "a Machiavellian moment" in the sense that it now seems to believe that, as Machiavelli wrote in "The Prince," "it is safer to be feared than to be loved."
The main symptom of this "Machiavellian moment" is the " Russification" of Chinese influence operations. We briefly reported on this in our January 2020 paper for @WarOnTheRocks. This report develops it. warontherocks.com/2020/01/russia…
It proceeds in 4 parts, presenting 1) the concepts and doctrines setting the framework for these operations; 2) the actors implementing them within the Party, the State, the Army and the companies; 3) the actions themselves, in all domains; and 4) some case studies.
For ease of navigation in this thick volume, there are summaries at the end of each part in addition to the general summary, on different colored pages; bolding allows for diagonal reading; and there are cross-references in the text, sidebars and tabs.
Case studies focus on #Taiwan, #HongKong, #Singapore, #Sweden, #Canada, and the #Covid19 pandemic. France is not the subject of a separate section, but numerous examples throughout the report are drawn from it.
The conclusion looks back at this "Russification" in three stages (inspiration, differences, cooperation) before evaluating the effectiveness of this new Chinese posture which, despite tactical successes, is a strategic failure.
In France, awareness of the risks posed by Chinese influence was late but it is lively and growing since 2019, with an acceleration in 2020-21. This report contributes to this "French awakening" (recently highlighted by @morcos_pierre in warontherocks.com/2022/01/france…).
In a sense, this work is also a follow-up to the 2018 CAPS/IRSEM report on "Information Manipulation" (diplomatie.gouv.fr/IMG/pdf/inform…) but it is both narrower (focused on a single state actor) and broader (it deals with influence in general, not just the information field).
The original French version, published 3 months ago, has already been mentioned in more than 100 media outlets across the world, in more than 20 countries and 15 languages. It made the headlines of major newspapers like “Le Monde” and “Le Figaro”.
A review of the report has also been published in the latest issue of the “Journal of Strategic Security” (14:4, p. 111-115): digitalcommons.usf.edu/jss/vol14/iss4…
🚨 [THREAD] Total and definitive victory against the Kremlin media. In a procedure that lasted almost 6 years, all the way to the French Court of Cassation, RT France sued me in a typical case of lawfare (using law as a weapon) against France. And Moscow lost.
RT France was initially reacting to the publication on 4/9/2018 of the CAPS (@francediplo_EN)-@IRSEM1 report, which quoted RT several times but contained only 1 ref to RT France, on the case that had led to it being put on notice by the Regulatory Authority: diplomatie.gouv.fr/IMG/pdf/inform…
In the days that followed, we were subjected to intense and visibly coordinated attacks by the Russian authorities in Moscow and their media, including RT and Sputnik. Critics distorted our words, attacked CAPS and IRSEM, and sought to discredit the authors.
🚨 [FIL] Victoire totale et définitive contre le média du Kremlin. Dans une procédure qui a duré presque 6 ans, jusqu'à la Cour de cassation, RT France me poursuivait en justice dans un cas typique de lawfare (utilisation du droit comme arme) contre la France. Et Moscou a perdu.
RT France réagissait initialement à la parution le 4/9/2018 du rapport CAPS (@francediplo)-@IRSEM1 qui citait à plusieurs reprises RT mais ne contenait qu’une référence à RT France, sur l’affaire qui lui avait valu d’être mise en demeure par le CSA. diplomatie.gouv.fr/IMG/pdf/les_ma…
Dans les jours qui ont suivi, nous avons subi des attaques intenses et visiblement coordonnées, des autorités russes à Moscou et de leurs médias dont RT et Sputnik. Les critiques déformaient nos propos, attaquaient le CAPS et l’IRSEM, et cherchaient à discréditer les auteurs.
[FIL] Parce qu’à la veille des référendums d’annexion à la Russie de 4 régions ukrainiennes, certains de ceux qui les condamnent en profitent pour relégitimer l’annexion de la Crimée qui n'aurait "rien à voir" (J. Bardella sur @franceinfo ce matin), il est utile de rappeler que :
1/ Le référendum de mars 2014 était illégal au regard du droit constitutionnel ukrainien qui affirme l’indivisibilité du territoire (art. 132 de la Constitution) et précise que la Crimée est inséparable (art. 134).
2/ Il était aussi illégitime au regard du droit international car il ne satisfaisait pas aux standards habituels : la paix (il s’est exercé sous la contrainte de l’occupation militaire russe) ; un suffrage universel, égalitaire, libre et secret...
[FIL] Dans @lemondefr, je publie une tribune sur le faux réalisme en politique étrangère, parce que le label "réaliste" est souvent revendiqué (et déformé) pour appeler à la modération face à l’agression russe en #Ukraine. lemonde.fr/idees/article/…
1/ Selon certains, avant la guerre, c’est l’absence de "réalisme" qui aurait permis l’expansion de l’OTAN, laquelle aurait "provoqué" le président Poutine qui n’aurait fait que défendre ses intérêts en attaquant l’Ukraine, ce dont il est par conséquent presque excusé.
Pendant la guerre, c’est encore au nom du "réalisme" qu’il faudrait ne pas trop soutenir les Ukrainiens et ménager une porte de sortie honorable aux Russes. Et après la guerre, les mêmes "réalistes" nous inviteront à rapidement normaliser nos relations avec Moscou.
[THREAD] While the UK approved the extradition of #WikiLeaks co-founder #JulianAssange to the US, France's far-left Jean-Luc Mélenchon promises to naturalize him if he's appointed PM. But Wikileaks played a role in an interference attempt during the previous presidential election
The #MacronLeaks operation was a coordinated attempt to undermine Macron’s candidacy in the 2017 presidential campaign, with disinformation including forged documents, a hack and a leak of 15 GB of stolen and manipulated data just 2 days before the final round.
And WikiLeaks played a role in it. First, as early as in February 2017, in a Russian newspaper, Assange announced that something was coming, as if he knew (p. 4).
[THREAD] RT(Russia Today) France sued me and lost in court. The court declared my total acquittal and rejected RT France's request for a conviction for defamation. RT France appealed the judgment. In a detailed press release, I come back on this case irsem.fr/en/case-rt-fra…
RT France was initially reacting to the publication on Sept. 4, 2018, of the CAPS-IRSEM report which quoted RT several times but contained only 1 ref. to RT France, on the case which had earned it a formal notice from the French regulatory authority (CSA). diplomatie.gouv.fr/IMG/pdf/inform…
In the days that followed, we were subjected to intense and visibly coordinated attacks by the Russian authorities in Moscow and their media, including RT and Sputnik. The critics distorted our words, attacked CAPS and IRSEM, and sought to discredit the authors.