CF40 member ZHONG Wei points out that to realize a steady operation of China’s economy in 2022, we need to understand what it means to be “steady” from different frames of reference and policy perspectives.
Read more at: mp.weixin.qq.com/s/KlRv7dtcpPaZ… 1/6
Read more at: mp.weixin.qq.com/s/KlRv7dtcpPaZ… 1/6
1. Maintain the long-term trend of growth since the reform and opening up. Despite the shift from high speed growth to high quality growth, it may be necessary to maintain a growth rate of no less than 4% or slow down the pace to make it manageable. 2/6
2. China’s central bank and most international organizations think that the reasonable potential growth rate of China’s economy is 5-6%, which might be considered as the growth benchmark for 2022 and the 14th five-year plan period.3/6
3. To realize the long-range objectives through the year 2035, China’s #economicgrowth should stand at around 4.5-5%. If RMB exchange rate is not factored in, then the growth rate should be close to 5% to reach the goal.4/6
4. To ensure that the absolute gap between China’s and US economy not widen,as China’s GDP is 70% that of the US, China’s economic growth needs to outpace US by 50%.If long-term growth rate of US economy is 2.4%,that of China should be kept above 3.6%.5/6
5. “Steady growth” also aims to maintain people’s living standards, which requires striking a balance among other indicators like newly added jobs, increase of real income, and income distribution.6/6
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
