Thread by @vipintukur

‘Endemic’ Covid?

Is Omicron’s arrival means that Covid is soon going to be endemic?
No, the Omicron’s very existence has in fact underlined concerns about what happens with future Covid mutations. 1/

This is because each successive VOC to emerge through the pandemic – including Alpha, Beta, Delta and now Omicron – has not been a descendant of the previous one, as is typical in flu & seasonal CoVs, allowing immunity to develop. 2/

This pattern means we shouldn’t assume the next variant of interest/concern will emerge from current circulating Omicron viruses – like other variants, it may well have already evolved (or be evolving) somewhere, from a much older ancestor lineage. 3/

This future variant-wherever & whenever it emerges – may be therefore be very different in terms of mutations to Omicron or Delta, meaning it could be just as infectious, since the human population would have lower protection ag transmission, & it could also be more virulent 4/

Pandemics come in waves & at each wave we see people acting foolishly, secure in the belief that the next wave will be very weak if it comes at all.
SARS2 is not going to become a ‘common cold’/ ordinary ‘seasonal’ CoV within the span of the next few months or even years 5/

Excellent reasons to be optimistic that Covid19 disease may become less of a concern. This was mainly to do with vaccines & infection-acquired immunity, rather than the evolution of the virus. 6/

We cannot rely on a virus becoming milder, but have to continue to vaccinate our way out of it.
As long as we fail to share vaccines fairly, new nastier VOC can appear from anywhere, w/ no guarantee that our Omicron immunity will be cross-protective

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