Why Europe's #StrategicCompass Points to Trouble Ahead 🧵
1. The EU's #Gymnich meeting last week confirmed the direction of the Union's draft security strategy, the 'Strategic Compass
This is bad news - for the #EU, the #US, #NATO & liberal ordering.
2. Many experts have worried that the compass will just be another false dawn in European security and defence - more big promises without the possibility of delivering the capabilities needed to make good on them. In short - the EU's ego is writing cheques its body can't cash.
3. That ongoing capability gap will cause problems BUT its not the biggest risk the new strategy poses. The #StrategicCompass presents the darkest worldview ever avowed by the #EU- a far cry from its previous- & successful -progressive, optimistic approach
4. This progressive approach drove the EU's greatest achievements- Schengen, Eurozone, Enlargement, Neighbourhood policy - & was marked by creative geopolitics & inclusive, hopeful visions of security - In marked contrast to today's 'protective' approach - carnegieeurope.eu/2021/03/08/eu-…
5. Now, rather than seeing opportunity, the EU sees a new 'world of threats'. The compass sees Europe’s “security landscape” as “more diverse, complex, & fragmented than ever” (quite a claim, given the continent’s history). with intensifying threats & uncertainty from all sides.
6. The Compass represents a classic securitising move - but given the fairly meagre capabilities it asks for - the EU seems to have taken a discursive sledgehammer to crack a pretty small nut ...
7. The capabilities aren't really the point here - & are unlikely to be delivered (via the EU at least) anyway. The compass' supposedly concrete objectives look all too vague (a familiar feeling looking at EU security documents) but the key is the Compass dark worldview
8.The present moment is no scarier than 1950 or more uncertain than 1989. At both junctures Europeans sought innovative & hopeful not tragic & fearful responses to abundant threats & rapid change. Now, led by @JosepBorrellF they're not so brave or creative ip-quarterly.com/en/why-europes…
9. Contrary to @JosepBorrellF's assertion, he EU does not need to become a security provider—it has always been one. It delivered security by eschewing the type of partial, paranoid worldview presented in the Compass. BUT this rested on a division of labour with #NATO.
10. The EU & NATO may have been the best 'good cop, bad cop' double act in geopolitical history. NATO's deterrence allowed the EU to eschew military means & develop its model of mutual & progressive security, complementing & amplifying the American approach to liberal ordering.
11. In recent times this mutually beneficial bargain has come apart as a result of both European cheap riding and hegemonic American hubris, which left the US with an unmanageable global burden.
12. The EU’s effectiveness is undermined by protective security thinking which has been compounded by delusions of military adequacy.

It's beyond question that Europeans need to do more to provide for their own defense, but should do it through NATO. ip-quarterly.com/en/why-europes…
13. If the EU follows its compass & Borrell & co keep trying to speak (& getting schooled in) a language of power they cannot master or meaningfully back up, the EU will look like any aspirant regional power, only less well equipped, strategically coherent, or credibly committed.
14. Instead, those who care about European security & the EU's transformative power & liberal potential should seek to bolster NATO militarily & find ways of reviving and reforming the EU's own, unique geopolitical identity. /END.

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More from @bctallis

Dec 18, 2021
Excellent news from #Czechia @JanLipavsky’s confirmation is a very positive step. BUT … a short 🧵on #czech politics.
1. Beware expectations raised a little high here. portraying @P_Fiala as #Havel’s heir is v. problematic - he has a strange rel to #EU

2. @JanLipavsky is from a different party than @P_Fiala - the pirates, who along with STAN have a much stronger claim to be the standard bearers of Havelism in #Czechia today.
Fiala’s support 4 Lipavsky is great but this is as much domestic power politics (v Zeman) as principle
3. The two are, nonetheless, connected as Zeman as been not only a disastrous President morally (migration, Allegations of corruption & influence from kremlin,etc) but an enabler for both 🇷🇺 & 🇨🇳 in 🇨🇿.
We can expect to see that diminish without Babis facilitating Zeman.
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May 25, 2021
1/ It’s a start but, as the speed with which it was unanimously agreed shows, it’s not strong enough #belarus #eu nytimes.com/2021/05/24/wor…
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3/ as well as
- clamping down on #belarus KGB activity in #EU states (kick ‘em out)
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How can we build a better #PostCoronial world?
In our new #longread piece for @openDemocracy, @NC_Renic & I offer a vision from Germany.
Here’s a taste of what we propose (thread):
@IFSHHamburg #UnCancellingtheFuture #HamburgSessions
The #COVID19 crisis will be politically exploited, whether we like it or not - so let's make it for the better. We can’t cede this historic moment to authoritarian powers, reactionary ideas or conservative timidity and we can’t return to our flawed ‘business as usual’.
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