Thread by @JasonSalemi

We always talk about how #COVID19 deaths are a lagged indicator.

So far, our omicron-dominant peak in #Florida using the 7-day avg # of cases, was on 1/11/22, at >65,000 per day.

Since then, we have been on the decline, now at just under 30,000 per day.

What about #deaths?

1/

Well, over the last 5 weeks in #Florida, from 12/10/21 to 1/20/22, the number of newly reported deaths each week (daily avg) has been:

- 122 (17/d)
- 162 (23/d)
- 184 (26/d)
- 470 (67/d)
- 605 (86/d)

Tomorrow, we will get our @HealthyFla weekly report.

2/

My guess (and it is just a guess) will be that we will have learned of between 1000 & 1200 new #COVID19 deaths since the prior report.

That's in the neighborhood of 140-170 per day.

So, as expected (this is not new info), most metrics are improving, but deaths are rising.

3/

Now, these are deaths based on date reported, not when they occurred.

But, as we can see in the figure below, deaths based on date reported closely resemble what the "true" deaths by date of death curve will look like when reporting in "complete".

4/

As of today's timeseries update from @HealthyFla, reported by the @CDCgov, our CURRENT omicron peak, based on date of death and 7-d avg is on 1/15/22, at 101 deaths per day.

When will the actual peak be?

How high will it get?

5/

If you look at the timing of peak cases and peak deaths in the two surges in #Florida resulting in the highest deaths:

SUMMER 2020
- peak in cases on 7/15/20 (11,610 per day)
- peak in deaths 21 days later (228 per day)

...to be cont'd

6/

...cont'd

DELTA SURGE
- peak in cases on 8/16/21 (21,640 per day)
- peak in deaths 16 days later (403 per day)

So far for omicron...
- peak in cases on 1/11/22 (65,644 per day)
- 16 days later is 1/27/22 (today)
- 21 days later is 2/1/22

7/

Of course, the "distance" between peak cases and peak deaths could be different in a surge with a higher proportion of cases that are of the omicron variant.

Regarding the peak, 2 weeks ago, I guessed 130-140 per day.

That's still possible.

https://twitter.com/JasonSalemi/status/1482181032371638273?s=20

8/

But, if we do see ~1200 reported deaths over the past week on tomorrow's weekly report,

and how predictive reported deaths are of eventual deaths, the peak could end up being higher.

But I'd be surprised if we got to 200 deaths per day at this surge's peak in #Florida.

9/

So, during this surge...

Although we are clearly seeing fewer # of hospitalizations and deaths **RELATIVE TO** the # of detected cases...

The sheer volume of people infected in this wave has already led to a significant # of people with severe illness, or worse.

10/end