Quick #Christmas update on #omicron in #Florida following the @HealthyFla weekly report from yesterday.

I've borrowed an image for my dashboard that reflects how it seems spread has occurred (thanks Santa).

Let's have a quick walk-through.

1/15
Here's the overview of metrics.
- cases are surging, setting daily records, approaching new record over 7 days
- more testing than ever before
- both of the above likely underestimated between at-home tests and absence of reinfections in the daily numbers
- hosps increasing

2/15
This county-level infection rate fig blows my mind.
Only 2 weeks separates the left and right maps.

I thought my home county's (Hillsborough) 507% increase was crazy.

But check out these 2-week increases:
- Dade: 1790% (19 times higher)
- Broward: 1437%
- Palm Bch: 1167%

3/15
As I mentioned, testing higher than ever in 1 week, and likely does not include a bunch of at-home tests...

But positivity had a huge increase because the increase in cases blew the increase in testing out of the water.

4/15
Again, look at these crazy increases in positivity over the last 2 weeks:

- Dade: from 2.0% to 16.6%
- Broward: from 2.6% to 19.1%
- Palm Bch: from 2.6% to 17.1%

5/15
And when we fade back out to the state level, the comparison to 2 weeks ago is just striking.

Florida's 7-day average daily cases is 956% higher with 19,124 MORE daily cases than two weeks ago.

6/15
Not only do we have the most pronounced increase over the last 2 weeks, but we now also have the 8th highest cases per capita over the past 7 days.

7/15
The recent increases are seen in every age group, but the biggest driver has been those 20-39.

In people 20-29, the rate is higher than it's ever been, including during the delta surge.

8/15
For perspective, it took about 36 days from the initial increase in cases until we eclipsed 21,100 average daily cases during #delta.

It's happened in one-third of that time - 12 days - during #omicron.

Our 7-day avg right now is only ~500 cases below our all-time high.

9/15
Hospitalizations for COVID are going up.

But first some all-important context.

As you can see in the figure, we are nowhere near #delta's astonishing levels.

Not yet and hopefully not ever.

10/15
As @nataliexdean articulated, this may be due to #omicron having:
- younger lower-risk ppl comprise higher % of cases
- higher % of re-infections & breakthrough cases, also less likely to result in severe illness

Also, not enough time has passed.



11/15
But if we zoom in to just the month of December, avg daily admissions for confirmed COVID-19 have increased by:

- 138% in those 80+
- 110% in those 70-79
- 113% in those 60-69
- 133% in those 50-59
- 250% in those 40-49
- 225% in those 30-39

you get the idea...

12/15
Again, you can see, whether the # of adults/children currently hospitalized...

...or the # of avg daily admissions...

Regardless of #omicron's intrinsic severity, tons of new cases = a significant # of people sick enough to be hospitalized.

That ICU # also increasing.

13/15
One final look at age.

LEFT has age distribution of cases since 7/1/2021

RIGHT has age distribution of hosp patients with COVID since 7/1/2021

Significant shift to younger ages during the #omicron surge.

Hoping this, in part, reflects vax + booster effectiveness.

14/15
No publicly available data on metric breakdown by vax or prior infection status.

No updates on vax progress on CDC site since 12/23.

So that's all for now.

Hope everyone is having a safe but still wonderful Christmas.

15/15

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More from @JasonSalemi

23 Dec
My Lord, things change RAPIDLY with #omicron.

And they are not changing for the good.

Your 12/22 #COVID19 update.

#Cases and #Hospitalizations.

As always, Florida-centric with some national context.

Brace yourselves.

covid19florida.mystrikingly.com

1/14
Purview of 7-day avg daily cases over the past 8 wks.

In the first 6 wks in this window, <2000 per day.

Last wk, 2702 per day.

Most recent wk of reported data, 10,904 per day.

# of cases in today's report (20,194) exceeded the WEEKLY TOTAL over any of the past 7 wks.

2/14
To appreciate the rapid rise, here's a map showing change in avg daily cases compared to just 2 weeks ago.

FL - 499% increase (3rd highest: DC, Hawaii)

Detailed #Florida numbers at bottom right of figure.

3/14
Read 14 tweets
21 Dec
In my thread last night on just a few of the reasons for D-I-R-T-Y data on #COVID19 #vaccination status, I failed to explain the potential impact of duplicate records being created.

Here's that simplified explanation.

1/5
In the fig, we have what actually happened (top), a situation in which the booster got assigned to a different record (treated as a different person in calculations), and a hopefully rare situation in which all three doses were treated as though they belonged to diff people.

2/5
Here's an example when 7% of people completing a 2-dose series had duplicate records that were created.

Those w/ a completed initial series was UNDERestimated by 6.3%.

Those w/ "only first dose" was OVERestimated by 12.6%.

The "at least one dose" exceeds the pop count!

3/5
Read 5 tweets
21 Dec
#COVID19 #vaccination data.

Vax estimates above 100%.

Millions of people seemingly failed to complete their initial 2-dose series.

Unexpectedly low rates of booster uptake.

A thread explaining how these data might be D-I-R-T-Y.

1/16

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
PROBLEM #1: WRONG PLACE OF RESIDENCE

People may be assigned to a county based on where they got the shot and not where they lived. [that's the numerator]

Since the denominator is based on place of residence, the % vaccinated can end up out of whack.

2/16
Problem occurs when misclassification in one direction (calling a non-Hillsborough resident a Hillsborough resident to a greater extent than the opposite direction (calling a Hillsborough resident a non-Hillsborough resident).

More likely to happen for specific age groups.

3/16 Image
Read 18 tweets
18 Dec
#Omicron can kiss my a$$.

Now that that's out of the way, a brief #Florida update.

Well, as expected, cases are increasing at a rapid rate. More than a doubling from last week.

1/12
As we dive deeper to the county level, although the increases are pretty consistent, our 3 largest counties in the southeastern part of the state are skyrocketing.

1-week change in 5 largest counties:
- Dade 322%
- Broward 213%
- PB 160%
- Hillsborough 60%
- Orange 50%

2/12
The percent changes for this past week (far right bar) reflect increases for every age group, but most pronounced for those 20-49.

The smallest increase is in the most vaccinated age group (and the most likely to take precautions), those people 65+.

3/12
Read 13 tweets
7 Dec
In the US, the best #COVID19 #vaccine data comes from states, reporting @CDCgov

But the current reporting as "at least 1 dose" & "fully vaccinated" neglects the impact of waning immunity, esp among vulnerable populations.

An important🧵 from me, @BethPathak & @COVKIDProject

1/
When #COVID19 vaccines first became available, nobody knew how long the benefits would last. Many hoped the shots would offer full protection for a year or longer.

2/
Unfortunately, well-conducted research studies in the summer of 2021 have demonstrated that the effectiveness of the vaccines starts to decline (wane) after 4-6 months. For the Janssen (J&J) vaccine, waning begins after only 2 months!

3/
Read 27 tweets
26 Sep
County-level #COVID19 deaths in #Florida

A cautionary tale about comparisons: data sources matter!

Much attention recently paid to county-level COVID-19 death data being made available again in FL...thru the federal "Community Profile Report".

healthdata.gov/Health/COVID-1…

1/
But near-current county-level #COVID19 deaths in #Florida (and throughout the country) has long been available through the National Center for Health Statistics at @CDCgov.

Link below.

2/

data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provision…
People have already pointed to differences between these data sources as further "evidence" that @HealthyFla is getting something wrong or hiding something.

Others have used both data sources to calculate rates and compare counties on their cumulative COVID-19 mortality.

3/
Read 18 tweets

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