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Clint Watts

Feb 2 • 5 tweets • 3 min read

@FPRI

Last few months, had opportunity interview top experts climate change, 1st episode out today @FPRI John @Conger477 @CntrClimSec @CSRisks provides insights into how #climatechange will shape DoD thinking on #nationalsecurity Check it out and subscribe fpri.org/multimedia/202…

Climate change has clearly become a national security issue with dynamic changes creating major uncertainty for countries, companies and citizens. I believe climate change most important issue today, a topic I'm personally interested in but know little about.

This was a chance for me to learn from the best working on the #ClimateCrisis as I believe much of status quo thinking & resulting foreign policy talk in DC badly out of bounds of the coming reality.

America's foreign policy, national security landscape still stuck in Cold War - Global War On Terror frame. Many places that mattered for NatSec over last 50+ years no longer will, and places USA has ignored in recent times will become critically important.

Hope listeners enjoy the #climate change series and I'll be back next week with Part 2 which examines a different dimension of the crisis.

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More from @selectedwisdom

Clint Watts

@selectedwisdom

Feb 2

note - predicting Russia invasion Ukraine based on open source/news, Kremlin knows watched from every angle (intel/public), many if not most RU maneuvers are denial/deception, moves in plain sight w/intention to deceive, trend lines matter though, anecdotes can be misleading

Hence difference in Ukraine & US assessments on possibility of invasion & Putin moving pieces progressively into place to make decision when he chooses, share that decision with few people. Don't know if he will invade, signals can be interpreted both directions

as of now, Putin played his game well, but also lost some key pieces (agent provocateurs/coup plot) & the U.S. & West have done better in recent days after being way too slow early on.

Read 6 tweets

Clint Watts

@selectedwisdom

Jan 25

https://twitter.com/acyn/status/1485780422734737409

Anyone doubt how effective Russia’s influence campaign on 🇺🇸 over last 7 years? warontherocks.com/2016/11/trolli…

https://twitter.com/acyn/status/1485780422734737409

Prime time cable news host Tucker spends night after night worried about Putin’s interests, not americas interest to advance democracy & strengthen alliances nbcnews.com/think/amp/ncna…

We have Tucker Carlson pushing Russian foreign policy via TV/social media to American political right & Snowden suddenly chirping about peace to American political left on social media = convergence

Read 4 tweets

Clint Watts

@selectedwisdom

Jan 20

Here we go, lots of details #Ukraine #Russia "Treasury Sanctions Russian-Backed Actors Responsible for Destabilization Activities in Ukraine." home.treasury.gov/news/press-rel…

Some Election 2020 - Russia tie-ins 🙂

Sivkovich

Read 5 tweets

Clint Watts

@selectedwisdom

Jan 6

Final installment, Part 3 of Assessing Domestic Extremism A Year After #Jan6 "Where Is Domestic Terrorism Headed In 2022?" clintwatts.substack.com/p/where-is-dom…

Several scenarios to worry about in 2022. Namely that an office holder at state/ local level does not respect the outcome of confirmed vote tallies, interferes with voting/counting, claims they won when they did not and refuses to leave office.

This would set off a chain reaction if protests/counter protests with high probability of violence

Read 5 tweets

Clint Watts

@selectedwisdom

Jan 5

Part 2 of Assessing Domestic Extremism A Year After #January6 "Where Has Online Extremism Moved Over The Past Year?" clintwatts.substack.com/p/where-has-on…

Some takeaways in online DOMEX over last year. 1 - Telegram new home for many extremist collectives 2 - Gab substitute for FB/Twitter, 3 - smaller platform worry about is GETTR (Threats violence)

Preferences for extremists on social media mirror rest of society to a degree. Younger generation quicker adapt to newer, more advanced tech platforms. Older generation extremists want something like Facebook.

Read 4 tweets

Clint Watts

@selectedwisdom

Jan 3

"Where Did All the Insurrectionists Go?" It's been nearly a year since the insurrection of #Jan6. Here's an assessment one year later on the U.S. domestic extremism scene in 2022 clintwatts.substack.com/p/where-did-al…

3 trends to watch on Jan 6, 2022. 1 - Extremism has shifted from national to local, 2 - Race motivated violent extremism still top threat & evolving, 3 - Collision of anti-government & conspiracy ideologies. A year of shifts in .gif