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Aaron Derfel

Feb 4 • 8 tweets • 5 min read

1) Nearly two weeks after posting the highest rate of #COVID deaths per million population among industrialized nations, Quebec has ceded the top spot back to the United States, as U.S. booster vaccination has stagnated. But this is beginning to happen in Quebec, too.

2) Quebec’s booster vaccination program was problematic from the start, as authorities were slow to give a 3rd dose to elderly Quebecers living in their homes. The chart below shows that this tardy decision is likely responsible for the second highest death wave in the #pandemic.

3) But as flawed as Quebec’s booster campaign has been, the situation in the United States has proved even worse. At the same time, more and more U.S. states have been lifting #pandemic restrictions, resulting in #COVID deaths creeping up. Please take a look at the chart below.

4) For the past two days, Quebec’s booster vaccination rate has stalled at 46%, amid reports of near-empty vaccination halls in the evenings. Please see the chart below. This is a worrisome development given the likely proliferation of the BA.2 “stealth” strain here in Quebec.

5) On Wednesday, Quebec’s public health institute released projections warning that #COVID hospitalizations could either tick up in an optimistic scenario or spike in February under the pessimistic forecast. montrealgazette.com/news/local-new…

6) And on Thursday night, the truckers’ convoy in Ottawa metastasized with big rigs pulling into Quebec City. One of the trucks was plastered with a sticker that had choice words not only for PM Justin Trudeau but Premier François Legault. Will the Premier cede to their demands?

7) Meanwhile, the number of Quebec students absent due to #COVID19 has jumped from 50,000 to 65,000. More than 43,000 of those students attend elementary schools, with just 63% of them having received their first vaccine dose.

8) Thus, all these factors combined — a stealth #COVID strain on the loose, stalled boosters, rising infections among students amid easing restrictions and political pressure by truckers on a Premier in an election year — do not augur well. End of thread. Please go get your shot.

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Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

Feb 6

1) Two years into the #pandemic, something odd is now occurring worldwide in the #COVID19 crisis, with the number of global deaths surging while cases seem to be falling. This has not happened quite this way previously. In this thread, I will try to explain why this is occurring.

2) During the first wave of the pandemic in the winter of 2020, #COVID testing wasn't widely conducted around the world. The best indicator at the time was the number of deaths, which quickly skyrocketed. Please see the chart below comparing global cases with deaths at that time.

3) But later on, as countries around the world started testing for #COVID intensively, another pattern emerged. Deaths started to track more closely with the number of new cases, with declared deaths appearing a few weeks after infections were recorded. See an example below.

Read 14 tweets

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

Feb 5

1) Japan — generally lauded for its response to the #COVID crisis — is now in the grip of what it’s calling a 6th wave in the #pandemic. To be blunt, what the hell is now going wrong in Japan and what lessons can Québec draw from the Land of the Rising Sun?

2) As you can glimpse from the chart below, #COVID hospitalizations in Canada are now in decline, while they are climbing in Japan. Toyko’s metropolitan government has ordered hospitals to boost the number of emergency beds to accept patients at night.

3) In an alarming development reminiscent of what Quebec has been going through, the Japanese government is considering whether it should send low-risk #COVID patients back home to “prevent medical facilities from being overwhelmed.”

Read 9 tweets

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

Feb 4

Alors que nous entrons dans la troisième année de la crise sanitaire, il est devenu évident que certains mots ou expressions ne sont plus utilisés au Québec pour parler de la pandémie. Dans cette enfilade pas si sérieuse, je discuterai de ces mots oubliés.

J'ai décidé de choisir des mots ou des expressions en français uniquement parce que, 1) je vis et travaille au Québec et 2), ces termes semblent plus colorés, même poétiques, dans la langue de Molière.

Je voudrais remercier tous ceux qui ont contribué à cette enfilade psycholinguistique avec leurs suggestions. Je me concentre sur les expressions ou les mots discontinus, pas sur ceux encore utilisés que nous détestons, comme « la lumière au bout du tunnel. »

Read 12 tweets

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

Feb 3

@jordanbpeterson

1) Dr. Jordan Peterson (@jordanbpeterson), one of Canada’s preeminent intellectuals, cited a meta-analysis on Tuesday concluding that the average #COVID lockdown resulted in only a 0.2% reduction in mortality in Europe and in the U.S. Is that really true?

2) Given Peterson’s huge audience and his commitment to scientific rigour, it is worth stress-testing this meta-analysis that has appeared in Studies in Applied Economics. That would be part of the scientific method of open and fact-based debate.

3) It’s in that scientific tradition that I would like to report the reaction of various British scientists to this meta-analysis. Courtesy of sciencemediacentre.org, this is what Neil Ferguson, director of the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, had to say:

Read 10 tweets

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

Feb 2

1) Quebec’s new chief of public health, Dr. Luc Boileau, asserted on Wednesday he believes the province’s severely weakened health system could handle a potential influx of long #COVID patients. In this thread, I will examine whether this assertion stands up to closer scrutiny.

@mtlgazette

2) This is what Boileau said in response to a sharply focused question by the @mtlgazette’s @JesseFeith: “I think we are. I think it’s going to be a challenge. I think the more they are vaccinated, in particular with the 3rd dose, the less they are at risk to develop long COVID.”

3) Dr. Boileau may have confidence in Quebec’s health-care system, but it’s been years since he managed the Montérégie health authority. The system today is in much worse shape than when Boileau ran hospitals and clinics on the South Shore 13 years ago.

Read 15 tweets

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

Feb 2

1) At least two countries in the Northern Hemisphere – Ireland and Denmark – have started lifting #pandemic restrictions despite the more contagious #Omicron variant and the fact deaths are still rising in the latter. In this thread, I will examine the risks of lockdown fatigue.

2) First, though, let us focus on Quebec's latest #COVID death wave, which is stubbornly resisting to subside. In fact, the current wave has surpassed the wave last January, when Quebec still had a curfew in effect at this point in 2021. Please take a look at the chart below.

https://twitter.com/Aaron_Derfel/status/1486226732155817990

3) The Quebec government is wary to discuss this, but I submit it must be held accountable on this score. Most deaths are now occurring among Quebecers who were at least 70, who had been living at home, many of whom did not get their booster doses in time.

https://twitter.com/Aaron_Derfel/status/1486226732155817990

Read 12 tweets

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