BTCfuel Profile picture
Feb 9, 2022 28 tweets 15 min read Read on X
1/ #Bitcoin price thread: 2022 and beyond

In this thread I am dissecting the #Bitcoin price with a ton of insights. I will also share my vision where the Bitcoin is heading and how the Bitcoin price will behave in the future!
2/ The basic thought throughout this thread is this. When you are looking at the #Bitcoin price you are looking at a superposition of investment behaviors. This way I identified 3 major layers. The Bitcoin price is the combination of 3 layers or behaviors
3/ Layer 3 is the base layer. Over time the world will adopt the #Bitcoin network. Layer 3 is about this adoption. This adoption is similar to the network adoption of e.g. the internet or Facebook. Layer 3 is the main support of the bitcoin price (bottom chart @raoulgmi)
4/ Layer 2 is the investing layer. For investing there needs to be an investment case. The case for #Bitcoin amongst others is to become a better version of gold. The image shows reasons why people invest in gold & Bitcoin. Therefore lets zoom into both gold & Bitcoin
5/ This is how gold behaved in the past. Inflation and bear markets (or fear of) seem to have a clear relation with the price of gold
6/ #Bitcoin looked dead between 2014 and 2016. The stock market recovered from 2008 crash and the inflation was below 1%. Governments want inflation between 1% and 3%. Above Bitcoin 1% moves more energetic. In the recent years there was also lots of money printing
7/ So similar to gold inflation and bear markets (+fears) are investment cases for #bitcoin, thus a reason why people invest in Bitcoin and the price goes up. Money leaves when both inflation and bear markets are gone.
8/ Both Bitcoin and gold are technologies, that’s why it’s interesting to look the “market curve” for new technologies. Yes gold too, in the 70’s it was a reinvented/ repurposed technology for the new phenomenon of stagflation
9/ This is how I applied the market curve for #Bitcoin and gold. The different stages seem to overlap with inflation/ bear market fears time zones. It also shows that Bitcoin is in the lift-off stage which happened for gold in 1999 – 2011
10/ I compared both zones and I found out that in the back, #Bitcoin has been behaving as 1999 - 2011 gold FOR 8 YEARS since 2013. The RSI is key: it’s a relative measure and you get pure a behavior signal as a result which is almost exactly the same for gold in the same stage
11/ All of this makes very much sense Bitcoin is digital gold and people are already investing and using it like that. With a marketcap of 1 trillion #Bitcoin is already an established asset. Real investing layer 2 is an important pattern underneath the trading layer 1
12/ The 2017 cycle top was for #Bitcoin as digital gold a deviation (energy wise). This peak was a result of the combination: the crypto markets genesis, Bitcoin as part of a crypto portfolio, new ATH, lengthening cycles effect. It was not so much about Bitcoin itself
13/ Now this. Gold has a 8 year low to low and a 11 year low to high cycle. The last low was dec 2015. The next low should be end of 2023 or early 2024. The next high should be in the end of 2026 or early 2027
14/ In order for #Bitcoin to take over gold, it needs to tune in with the investment behaviors that determine the gold price and therefore tune in with the cycles of gold. The 1999 – 2011 gold pattern fits this perfectly!
15/ Layer 1 is the trading layer. It’s where all the short term action happens. Short is a relative concept. In the classical view, investing is about 5 to 10+ years. This means that buying low and then selling the cycle top is trading for #Bitcoin. A lot of people confuse this
16/ The parabolicness of #Bitcoin starts near a new ATH when the media starts reporting about it. The news spreads like a wildfire and people start buying because of green candles. The “gold rush” is a trading behavior, people want the quick buck
17/ In the Realized Cap HODL waves chart we see that every parabola has 4 demand waves. However this cycle demand is already really high early on in the cycle. This could indicate that the cycle effect is disappearing or gone
18/ Bitcoin’s gold pattern will be more dominant. Because in reality people are advising each other #Bitcoin for the long term and buying it that way. Especially big money which really moves the price, is investing for the long term. Cycle traders are trading altcoins
19/ I do believe there is still a small cycle effect for #Bitcoin however its gold pattern is becoming more dominant. The cycle behavior could however indicate a local top. I’m mainly looking at February – March 2023 for that. It’s also a top in the gold pattern
20/ There maybe could be a sequence behind the lengthening cycles. It seems that the cycle length extension is diminishing. These are my calculations for a possible next cycle length. This could maybe be related to the normal distribution, exponential decay, damped oscillations..
21/ #Litecoin is digital silver and, it’s an oscillator to #Bitcoin. It is correlated to Bitcoin in the broadest meaning of the word. As a consequence it contains a little bit of information about Bitcoin. For now, the Litecoin pattern indicates a local top near March 2023
22/ Back in 2016 the #Bitcoin balance on exchanges was already diminishing. The long term investment use of Bitcoin as digital gold started there. But Bitcoin moved up faster than expected so people sent their money back to exchanges to sell
23/ About the first years of #Bitcoin, this is useful to know. At the end of a long bull run, the blue chip assets go flat and money flows to the newest, riskier technology hype. They decouple from the rest of the market and blow off. Examples DJI vs Nasdaq and Gold vs Bitcoin
24/ Back in 2010-2013 #Bitcoin was an alternative to gold like silver and was closely following silver in 2011 until it decoupled from the rest of the commodity market in 2013. Profits from silver and gold flowed massively into Bitcoin
25/ This is a timeline of #Bitcoin that contains some past behaviors and events in order to better understand future behavior
26/ This is how I see #Bitcoin evolving in the long term, and the dominant influence for the price:

Stage 1: tech hype/ layer 1: trading dominant
Stage 2: digital gold/ layer 2: investing dominant
Stage 3: global monetary network / layer 3: network use - adoption dominant
27/ At last, to me this pattern is the best #Bitcoin model out there right now. To me, this pattern is the backbone of the Bitcoin price right now. It’s not just some pattern. It’s an evolving market development pattern and a stage of the Bitcoin revolution
28/ The end

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More from @BTCfuel

Mar 17, 2022
1/ When #ALTSEASON THREAD🔥🔥

In this thread I am looking at #crypto market structures to assess when an #altcoin market peak should happen and as a consequence #altseason, which happens in the weeks before the peak
2/ To assess when the next #altseason peak will happen, I’ll be looking at charts of #Bitcoin, #Ethereum and the dominance of #altcoins of the different past altseasons. By aligning them “correctly” structure-wise, I found this provisional target zone when the peak should happen
3/ Before getting started, where are #altcoins in their “market curve”? When compared to #Bitcoin one can see that they are entering the final leg up of the hype phase. This is the altcoin bubble. Bitcoin on the other hand is in the liftoff phase
Read 23 tweets
Mar 9, 2022
MASSIVE #BITCOIN PUMP SOON?? 🔥🔥🔥

Bitcoin and the stock markets are both in a similar structure and macro-economic situation as in 2018 - 2019. Back then this led to a #Bitcoin pump when stocks were capitulating. A new Bitcoin pump soon?

A THREAD on this comparison 👇

(1/9)
Yesterday a tweet caught my attention. Apparently stocks are following a same pattern right now as in 2018. A similar setup led to a capitulation in the stock markets. Lots of indicators are also the same. This capitulation could happen again soon

(2/9)

I already made remarks too that this #Bitcoin correction also looks very similar to the 2018-2019 bear market

(3/9)

Read 9 tweets
Feb 16, 2022
#Bitcoin & #Altcoins mini-thread

In this short thread I share valuable insights in the mid term and long term market structure for #Bitcoin & #Altcoins
Every #Bitcoin bull market / parabola has 3 consolidation stages. The further the bull market progresses, upwards pressure increases, the more these structures start pointing upwards

Bitcoin is now in the neutral stage. The rising wedge is the structure before the final run
The rising wedge before the top also happened in other markets such as the Dow Jones in the 20's and the during the Dotcom bubble of the NASDAQ
Read 14 tweets
Feb 11, 2022
#Bitcoin and #Altcoins have a different cycle length

They were almost aligned in 2017, but are now shifting apart. I believe #altcoins will peak before #Bitcoin.

These are the patterns I'm looking at right now to have an idea where altcoins and Bitcoin could be heading to. Image
#Altcoins are in the hype phase, like Dotcom bubble Nasdaq and Bitcoin 2010-2014

#Bitcoin is now its lifoff phase following Gold 1999-2011 in the same phase Image
The NASDAQ pattern is an interesting example for #Altcoins because both are 2 hyper-innovative techmarkets with an enormous size. Because of the size and same characteristics it wouldn't suprise me that history will repeat, like it always does

Read 5 tweets
Jan 23, 2022
Who's ready for an insane #altseason?
A short thread about how #Bitcoin is right now setting up for a historic altseason and second part of cycle
Most people do not realize Bitcoin is still very early in it's cycle. Compared to last cycle, crypto is now between what I call wave 2 and 3. Wave 3 in 2017 happened in the spring of 2017 with an insane altseason and alts outperforming #Bitcoin
I believe the low volume is an indication of the silence before the storm
Read 14 tweets
Dec 30, 2021
1/16 Understanding signal and its energy

In this thread I explain in an easy way the importance of understanding signal and its energy. Conceptual thinking in terms of signal and energy will give you deeper understanding of Bitcoin, the (crypto) markets and indicators Image
2/16 What is a signal actually?

A good definition for a signal is: “meaningful information that you are trying to detect”

The part that is not signal, one calls noise: “random, unwanted variation or fluctuation that interferes with the signal” Image
3/16 A signal can take on many different forms. Any type of quantity can be a signal Image
Read 16 tweets

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