Thread by @helenacobban

1/n There are 2 ways to read the @washingtonpost breathless reporting on the White House "Tiger Team" that's been "gaming out" confrontational scenarios re #Ukraine since November: washingtonpost.com/national-secur… >

2/n One way wd be to marvel at the "foresight" & smarts of Biden's forpol team. Another wd be to strongly suspect that this "Tiger Team" has been a major mechanism thru which Bidn's ppl have created & hyped the whole #UkraineCrisis. A couple of notes here: >

3/n My spouse Bill Quandt, an expert on US nat-sec policymaking recalled that in the 1980s, when dealing with the Cold War, Reagan would have *two* teams of opposing *analysts* provide their competing analyses of the murky/confusing data coming in from #Russia >

4/n in order to test which of those analyses turned out more accurate, which showed the Pres and his nat-sec adviser which analysts shd be listened to & which sidelined. That method *succeeded* in leading Cold War to a peaceable de-escalation >

5/n But Biden's "Tiger Team", per the @washingtonpost reporting skewed its mandate to look most closely at the direst scenarios. And of course, it was only one team, *not* focused at all on refining/testing any analysis. >

6/n Also, the WaPo rpt says there's a link btwn the US's ill-planned debacle in Kabul last August and the more recent "fears" about Russia in Ukraine: >

7/n But actually the two situations are completely different! The only clear link between them is the emotional/sociopolitical link btwn Biden's people having felt the US was "humiliated" by what happened in Kabul in August & them *therefore* feeling they need to >

8/n "re-establish America's credibility" in the world or whatever (as indicated in the para shown here.) This matter of "re-establishing credibility", as practices by the US or Israel or anyone is real symptom of toxic masculinity! >

8/n Btw, I had mentioned this #ToxicMasculinity factor briefly in my comments at the end of this post on the @JustWorldEd blog: justworldeducational.org/2022/02/amb-ma…. (The whole of that blog post is v. much worth reading!) >

10/n (Sorry about the numbering problem above.) Anyway, a couple of last notes on the "Tiger Team" as rpted on by the WaPo. (A) They look extremely amateurish, ways too much focused on dire scenarios (& doubtless also leaking about them to the ever-compliant corporate media) & >

11/n and far too little on the need for rigorous analysis & a strong, principled focus on diplomacy, de-escalation. (B) The existence of this "team" & its name both sound like pale rip-offs of China's recent "Wolf Warrior" grouping of diplomats. (How many are from Princeton?) END