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Christophe Barraud🛢 Profile picture
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Feb 21 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
🇷🇺 🇺🇦 *PUTIN BEGINS TELEVISED ADDRESS ON DONBAS SEPARATIST RECOGNITION - BBG
*PUTIN: UKRAINIAN STATE WAS CREATED BY RUSSIA
🇷🇺🇺🇦 *PUTIN: UKRAINE COULD DEVELOP TACTICAL NUCLEAR WEAPONS - BBG

*RUBLE WEAKENS TO 80 PER DOLLAR
🇷🇺🇺🇦 *PUTIN: WEST WILL IMPOSE SANCTIONS ON #RUSSIA NO MATTER WHAT - BBG
🇷🇺🇺🇦 *PUTIN: #RUSSIA WILL RECOGNIZE #UKRAINE SEPARATIST REPUBLICS - BBG
🇷🇺 🇺🇦 *PUTIN SIGNS DECREES RECOGNIZING UKRAINE SEPARATIST REPUBLICS - BBG
🇷🇺🇺🇦 *PUTIN, SEPARATIST LEADERS SIGN PACTS ON AID, COOPERATION - BBG

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More from @C_Barraud

Christophe Barraud🛢 Profile picture
Feb 3
🇪🇺 #ECB Meeting (1) | Lagarde conference was more hawkish than ECB statement as she clearly opens the door to some adjustments.
*It suggests that the governing council is feeling uncomfortable with #inflation.
*It suggests that a hike in 2022 is no longer excluded.
🇪🇺 #ECB Meeting (2) | Markets reacted immediately and are now pricing a hike in June.
🇪🇺 #ECB Meeting (3) | It looks extreme. My view remains that #inflation will be higher than expected but there is nothing in the data right now that suggests it won't normalize from H2.
Read 7 tweets
Christophe Barraud🛢 Profile picture
Jan 31
🇺🇸 #Macro Update (1) | Latest reports confirmed that #inflation remains a key issue that has affected consumer confidence and spending.
🇺🇸 #Macro Update (2) | The problem is that #Biden advisors and economists didn’t see it coming, thinking that #inflation was transitory. As a result, Biden approval rating ⬇ sharply and is for the first time below #Trump's at this time in the presidency.
🇺🇸 #Macro Update (3) | Now they woke up (a part of #inflation is of course durable), they think that raising short-term rates as fast as possible before midterms will solve the problem, which confirms that they still don’t understand inflation dynamic and markets’ reaction.
Read 6 tweets
Christophe Barraud🛢 Profile picture
Jan 27
🇺🇸 #FOMC (1) | Statement and other releases were mostly in line with Street expectations, which had been looking for signal to lay groundwork for March liftoff.
🇺🇸 #FOMC (2) | However, at press conference, #Fed Powell tried his best to send hawkish signals.
🇺🇸 #FOMC (3) | Powell press conference was clearly more aggressive than the statement, suggesting that he could be more on the hawkish side of the committee.
Read 12 tweets
Christophe Barraud🛢 Profile picture
Jan 20
🇪🇺 Christine Lagarde sent a clear warning to the market which suggests that the #ECB is still unlikely to hike rates anytime soon.

🇪🇺 🇺🇸 There are at least four big divergences with the U.S.:

1/ Most of #inflation comes from #energy prices (~50%) as the EU is more dependent. After winter and/or if geopolitical tensions ease, the effect should reverse creating huge negative base effects in 2H22.
2/ In Eurozone, market #rents are not rising by 15% or more YoY and it will never happen ⚠ with several cities already implementing caps.

3/ Positive base effect from the spike of German VAT will normalize.
Read 4 tweets
Christophe Barraud🛢 Profile picture
Jan 14
🇺🇸 Americans expect #inflation to rise 4.9% over the next year, matching the highest since 2008, the Michigan report showed - Bloomberg
*They expect prices will rise at an annual rate of 3.1% over the next five to 10 years, the most since 2011.
3/4 of consumers ranked #inflation, compared with unemployment, as the more serious problem facing the nation. Given that inflation's impact is regressive, the Sentiment Index ⬇ 9.4% among households with total incomes <$100K, but ⬆ 5.7% among households with incomes >$100K.
The same split was observed for prospects for the national economy, with lower income households more negative, and higher income households holding a more positive outlook.
*Link: bit.ly/33CnQfB
Read 5 tweets
Christophe Barraud🛢 Profile picture
Jan 6
🇺🇸 #FOMC (1) | Latest minutes show that #Fed policymakers look more concerned about #inflation, in line with recent speeches from Powell.
federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pre…
🇺🇸 #FOMC (2) | In my opinion, the risk of a wage-price spiral is now real with low-income families asking for more wage increases.
*Quits rate in low-wage sectors is well above the average (already at record high in the private sector)
🇺🇸 #FOMC (3) | For different reasons, right now, the labor is tighter than indicated by the unemployment rate (4.2% in Nov. 2021).
Read 8 tweets

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