Thread by @dryajov

To me it is clear that #Putin's ultimate goals in #Ukraine aren't to quickly capture and dominate it, this is a conflict designed to involve the entirety of the #European continent (and potentially the world). /1

The ultimate goals have been stated - #Russia want's NATO to back down to it's pre 97 configuration (de facto, by dismantling significant military infrastructure and de jure, with written accords and such). /2

More broadly, #Russia is seeking to re-negotiate the post cold world order with more favorable terms. /3

#Russia's conventional forces aren't enough to standup to #Nato and the #US, there aren't any illusions about it in the #Russian political and military elites. /4

It's nuclear strike capabilities on the other hand, are on par with the #US and it holds the mutually assured destruction card. Additionally, it has been increasing it's first strike capabilities and adapting it's military doctrine to this reality. /5

The doctrine now relies heavily on pre-emptive and first use strikes.

More importantly for this crisis however, is the notion of "escalate to de-escalate strategy" - en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_…, I believe that this is whats unfolding right now. /6

This conflict is designed to escalate. /7

Why is #Russia doing this? There seems to be consensus in the #Russian elites that the only way it's going to get any sort of meaningful concessions, is when the only outcome is that EVERYBODY LOOSES. /8

This is the only way of negating #NATO's and #US overwhelming conventional forces. Thus, the only viable way forward given #Russias current conventional military strength is to bring the world to the brink of a nuclear meltdown, /9

only then will it have any significant upside to re-negotiate the current #European security (and more broadly, world) order. /10

In part this is what the Cuban missile crisis did for the USSR, when the threat of all out nuclear exchange forced the US to negotiate and eventually to withdraw it's nuclear missiles from #Turkey /11

Tho, in order for the US to safe face, an agreement was made not to make that fact public - en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cuban_Mis…. /12

The second, but no less important aspect of this conflict, is psyops. It's paramount for #Russia that the escalation of the conflict and the imminent danger of a nuclear exchange is felt and understood by the general public in the west. /13

Moreover, at this point, being the boogieman is a tactical advantage. /14

The #US is intentionally downplaying this with deflective rhetoric such as "nuclear war is not an option", "we're not going to get involved by sending troops", etc... /15

I have no doubt that the #US knows exactly what #Putin is doing and it's trying to contain the panic, this will only work for so long. /16

Putin on the other hand will continue to gradually escalate. In this context, having #Europe send weapons to #Ukraine is exactly what it wants. Involving #Europe in the conflict is the goal - it's just a matter of what tactics are going to be employed. /17

An all out attack on a #European #Nato member is out of the question, it risks an uncontrolled escalation. But a series of border skirmishes, such as attacks on weapon convoys coming from #Poland and other bordering /18

#Nato states, is a way of gradually upping the ante and preventing an uncontrolled escalation. If all else fails, tactical nuclear strikes aren't out of the question either. /19

On the psychological warfare front, the tactics seems to be to allow as much imagery and information of the conflict to flow from the battleground, this is by design. /20

In this conflict, the narrative that the MSM is pushing and the negative public opinion of #Russia, #Putin and it's elites, is an important asset. 21

The image of a reckless and dangerous enemy, capable of anything is exactly what you'd want if you start threatening with your nuclear arsenal. /22

This conflict is the most widely documented conflict by independent sources in the history of mankind (youtube, tiktok, telegram, twitter, etc...) and this is again by design. /23

I believe that eventually, the images we're going to start getting from the battleground is #Nato weapon convoys being bombed on #Ukraine's soil /24

and later air to air combat with #Nato and #Russian aviation over #Ukraine territory (this is an important point, combat over #Nato soil, could invoke article V). All of this plays into the escalation scenario. /25

Another indication of this is the fact that #Russia didn't attempt to shut off internet, which it could have done easily /26

(even't with starlink and similar providers, they can be jammed or significantly impaired, rendering them useless or at worst limiting them significantly). /27

I alluded to this already, but I wouldn't make the mistake of thinking that this is just a bluff, the nuclear option is a very real one, if needed #Putin will push the button, he is legally bound to do so by the #Russian constitution. /28

In conclusion, this isn't a mad man rambling, this conflict is well thought and is being executed in accordance to #Russias military doctrine. /29

This is also a psychological warfare operation where the image of a madman is incredibly important and one that the western media has carefully crafted for #Putin - at this point it's a tactical advantage. /30