Thread by @DrKuba2

At Pop the Left, @StefanBertramL and I talk #internationalSecurity and #Ukraine . Very appreciative to have a chance to get insight from someone who experienced modern war in #Syria:

The situation in Ukraine is developing rapidly. Russian forces have entered #Kherson, a regional capital between #Crimea and #Odessa. Latest word is that the city capitulated after encirclement: news18.com/amp/news/world…

Encirclement is an established tactic - the Konev maneuver by the Red Army surrounded Kraków to take it from the Nazis in WW2 - and Russia has done the same with other Ukrainian cities like #Chernihiv and #Mariupol. The idea is to avoid casualties and force eventual surrender.

It looks like this might be the plan for #Kiev as well, as the 60km+ convoy of Russian armor begins to arrive at the outskirts of the city. Once surrounded, Russia can cut off the city, pressure it to surrender, and link up with its forces to the south: telegraph.co.uk/world-news/202…

Apart from the sheer size and scale of the column, moving that much armor in a single line through enemy territory is a show of strength, proving that the route is secure enough for it pass unmolested. The US did something similar in the #ThunderRun on Baghdad.

Also, #Belarus may or may not have sent forces. The Ukrainians say yes (up to 33 units), which was picked up by Western media, while #FoxNews expresses doubt and cites Lukashenko’s denial: foxnews.com/world/belarus-…

Despite the instinct to believe plucky Ukrainians over Lukashenko, there is reason to doubt their claims. Russian war fighting includes measures to cut off enemy communication to deny contact between forces and their command.

This has led to Ukrainian officials announcing what they believe to have happened without the ability to confirm with their people on the ground, most notably in the case of #SnakeIsland, where troops thought to have heroically died turned to be alive in Russian custody:

https://twitter.com/IBJIYONGI/status/1497808082671443968

The situation is grim, with the exhilaration of early Russian losses giving way to the reality that their advance continues and their forces outmatch the defenders. No resolution in sight, but pressure on Kiev may change the dynamics of talks set to continue on the PL/BEL border.

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