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Michael A. Horowitz Profile picture
@michaelh992
Mar 2, 2022 • 47 tweets • 21 min read • Read on X
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Thread on the #Russian invasion of #Ukraine - March 2
At 12:00 last night Ukrainian authorities reported that #Belarusian forces are in a state of high combat readiness and concentrating along the border of #Ukraine.
#Ukraine's intelligence shows significant aerial activity in #Belarus, as well as the movement of supply convoys of ammunitions and food
Yesterday #Russian forces likely tried to isolate Sumy, which (similarly to Kharkiv) has been resisting from day 1. They attacked Byshkin. An armoured column was destroyed using the Turkish-made Bayraktar drone - Sumy Military Administration
Bank of #Russia decided not to resume trading today at the Moscow Stock Exchange.
Full video (same as last night) of the Russian attack against a weapons depot yesterday in Chuguev near Kharkiv #Ukraine
Damage to an elementary school in Kharkiv after #Russian shelling. Multiple smaller impacts on wall, windows shattered.

Geolocation:
google.com/maps/place/Kha…
Aftermath of shelling of #Kharkiv last night. (Possible grad rocket debris seen in video)
Kholodna hora area of Kharkiv #Ukraine
Same building visible in this video of the aftermath of heavy shelling last night #Kharkiv
A Russian strike hit the national police building in Kharkiv
Geolocation
google.com/maps/place/49%…
Noting several of those reports that the strike also hit the nearby Kharkiv National University also
If you look at the geolocation, the strike was right in the center of Kharkiv, far from the previous frontlines/clashes in the city.
This picture shows that the university (first building) was hit alongside the police HQ (background building)
Aftermath of clashes near the SBU headquarters in Kherson, in southern #Ukraine
Archive picture of the building for reference
Man waves the Ukrainian flag in front of Russian forces assembled on Freedom Square in Kherson, southern #Ukraine
Geolocation
google.com/maps/place/46%…
The #Ukrainian Ministry of Defense claims that yesterday, a pair of Ukrainian MiG-29 as well as air defenses engaged two Su-35s near Kyiv. Both of them were shot, but one of the Ukrainian MiGs was lost. (their picture)
Russian prisoners in Mykolaiv #Ukraine
A cruise missile hit the City Council in Kharkiv moments ago #Ukraine
According to the Kharkiv city council, thankfully the missile did not explode inside the building itself, but led to heavy damage in the street #Ukraine
Geolocation:
google.com/maps/place/49%…
Picture from Odessa, appears to show smoke rising, possibly from a ship. #Ukraine
Aftermath of a cruise missile strike in #Kharkiv #Ukraine
Impact on a school in Kharkiv #Ukraine
The Kherson city council is reporting significant civilian casualties due to the Russian attack against the city (translated)

Source: facebook.com/khersoncouncil…
Aftermath of Russian shelling in Bordyanka near #Kyiv
Geolocation:
google.com/maps/place/50%…
#Breaking video showing Russian forces purportedly opening fire at civilians in Energodar, where residents had attempted to block Russian forces.
Some initial reports suggest there may be casualties. Unconfirmed at this point.
This is the area where civilians were blocking the road, reported earlier today
Russian forces entering Balakliya in the Kharkiv Oblast

Geolocation:
google.com/maps/place/49%…
Ukrainian Defense Ministry claims to have discovered documents maps and plans for the #Russian invasion of #Ukraine, approved back in January (January 18)
According to these #Russian documents, the battle plan called for a two-week-long war to capture Ukraine, which would take place from February 20 to March 6. #Ukraine
So Russia planned to take Ukraine in two weeks. We're around a week in.
The battle plans found also show a planned landing in Stepanovka, involving the 177th Separate Regiment of Marine of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, with the goal being to eventually take Melitopol.
The deputy mayor of Tokmak in southern #Ukraine reports heavy clashes between Ukrainian and Russian forces in the town
#Russia says 498 soldiers were killed, 1597 wounded during the invasion of #Ukraine
Multiple videos here (including the one above) showing Russian forces opening fire at civilians, likely from the same incident #Ukraine
Ukrainian official with the Donetsk regional administration says the city of Avdiivka, near Donetsk, has been shelled with Smerch rockets. #Ukraine
A bridge was blown up in Baryshivka near #Kyiv, as Russian forces are approaching the city from the east.
There are reports in Ukrainian and Russian media that the second round of talks will take place in the Białowieża Forest at the border between Poland and Belarus. Unconfirmed for now
After heavy clashes and significant civilian casualties reported today, Kherson is confirmed to have fallen
Earlier today, a church in Kharkiv was hit by a shell. People were taking refuge in the church. Thankfully no one was injured. #Ukraine.
Kharkiv is being bombed again tonight #Ukraine

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More from @michaelh992

Michael A. Horowitz Profile picture
May 30
As of now, Gantz and the opposition do not have the votes necessary to pass such a bill, unless there are defections within Netanyahu's own coalition. The question is whether this is an effort to encourage such defections or Gantz does have an indication that there are already defectors? It might also be a gamble, with no real plan.
As a reminder, Gantz has given Netanyahu a deadline (until June 8) to respond to six key demands. Netanyahu rejected the ultimatum moments after it was issued, and there were voices inside Gantz's own party who called to simply leave the government even ahead of the deadline
Advancing a bill to dissolve the Knesset would suggest Gantz is on his way out of the government.
Read 5 tweets
Michael A. Horowitz Profile picture
Oct 15, 2023
Another Go-pro footage of #Hamas militants going house to house in Sufa, near #Gaza, during the October 7 attacks, shooting at civilians inside houses (a civilian can be seen in the living room, and falls after being shot).
In this video, a #Hamas militant fires at an ambulance stationed within the border community to make sure it cannot be used.
In this one, #Hamas militants enter a house, they hear a phone ring and try to find people inside the house.

They shoot upstairs, then one of the militants shouts "mother" trying to mimic a child, possibly to attract civilians hiding in the house.
Read 4 tweets
Michael A. Horowitz Profile picture
Oct 11, 2023
#Israel, #Gaza: Over the past day/two there have been conflicting reports about a possible #Egyptian warning that "something big" was going to happen.

Here is my understanding (based on various accounts and info in Israeli and Egyptian media) of what may have happened - with the Caveat, that we don't have the full picture yet:

1. The report that the Egyptian Intelligence Minister spoke to Netanyahu about this upcoming threat is wrong about at least one thing: Anybody involved in diplomatic protocole knows that cooperation is done on the same level. If Egypt's intel minister spoke to someone, it's unlikely to be Netanyahu but a minister.

2. There was from what I understand, a warning from #Egypt. The warning was passed to the Israeli security apparatus (unclear to me exactly who).

3. This warning was based, in part, on increased military exercises, training and mobilization from Hamas. The message Egypt received is that Israel knew about all of this.

4. Israel, however, had a different interpretation, and felt Hamas was just flexing its muscle. It took some measures, on Friday evening and was about to discuss more in the next day. That's when the attack happened. Israel did not get that this was going to happen now.

5. This interpretation was based on the overall assessment that Hamas was still deterred, and focused on fueling tensions in the West Bank rather than Gaza. This assessment, served to negates signs on the ground that Egypt picked up, but that Israel had also picked up - but misinterpreted.

In the end, Egypt's interpretation, proved right, in the worse way.
BTW, this is a textbook case of intel failure, one routed in the processing of info and in the analysis. @AnshelPfeffer noted the similarities with the Kippur War and the "concept" (I recommend his thread on this).

I can also say, as an analyst working in the field of intelligence (in a much more limited way to be clear), and having studied the intelligence cycle, this is an even more broadly reported intel failure. Collection drives analysis, and collection should be allowed to overturn analysis and assessments, not the opposite.

Major intel failures can result from prolonged (or short) periods in which analysis inadvertently overrules collection. The main assessment is validated and reinforced by "collected facts" because contradictory evidence is ignored by design.

Same with the second part of the cycle, which is tied to the dissemination of information to the political echellon. If it works in reverse, it trickles down, and you open yourself up for major failures in intel.
Image
That's true and a good point. Collection in itself isn't "facts", and analysis vets and reshapes collected intel, which makes the mistake I mentioned even more likely to happen.
Read 4 tweets
Michael A. Horowitz Profile picture
Oct 11, 2023
(GRAPHIC) Remains of what appears to be a young child, burned in his home in Kfar Aza, posted by South First Reponders. Image
I did very much hesitate to post this. But given the astonishing debates and discussions about whether children were killed and how, I did decide to post this.

On the source: South First Responders is a group of emergency personnel who are identifying corpses - something I have verified.
Additional pictures of a young woman shot in her bedroom Image
Read 5 tweets
Michael A. Horowitz Profile picture
Jun 27, 2023
I personally don't buy that Lukashenko played this kind of role as a mediator.
For some reason, Putin is giving him this win, but I don't see Lukashenko as more than a figurehead.
There could be several reasons, including because a decision to resettle Wagner to Belarus without really consulting Lukashenko would show him for the puppet he is.

Or because Luka will now have to live with the fact the the mutineers of yesterday are on his own territory
Read 4 tweets
Michael A. Horowitz Profile picture
Jun 8, 2023
🧵Here is more info I received on the risks posed by the destruction of the Nova Kakhovka dam to the Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant
When reactors are in production, the plant uses the waters in the nearby pond to cool reactors Image
When the reactors are not in production, or in case of an accident, cooling is ensured through smaller cooling "fountains" situated closer to the cores. Image
Read 8 tweets

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