MacroBabble #1
Making no assumptions on how the conflict will resolve, apart from it NOT escalating to the point of direct NATO-Russia confrontation.
🥙Food prices will likely continue to climb due to supply chain disruptions and input costs increments.
1/n
Making no assumptions on how the conflict will resolve, apart from it NOT escalating to the point of direct NATO-Russia confrontation.
🥙Food prices will likely continue to climb due to supply chain disruptions and input costs increments.
1/n
🛢️Energy supply & prices will be challenging for Europe especially when winter comes, unless a deal is struck over the coming months.
📈Food & energy inflation could weigh on consumer demand for other goods & services, weakening motivation for rate hikes in US.
2/n
📈Food & energy inflation could weigh on consumer demand for other goods & services, weakening motivation for rate hikes in US.
2/n
📈The Fed also acknowledges that rate hikes are not effective against supply-driven inflation.
💵Actions by SWIFT and on Russia's reserves will serve as another wake up call for central banks/SWFs.
🇺🇸Possibly some negative impact on US power projection.
3/n
💵Actions by SWIFT and on Russia's reserves will serve as another wake up call for central banks/SWFs.
🇺🇸Possibly some negative impact on US power projection.
3/n
🌏De-globalisation has been a buzzword for sometime. Heightened geopolitical tension will bring it to the fore on a broader East-West basis. Security-sensitive businesses in particular.
🇪🇺EU will reverse years of defence austerity, and pro-EU sentiment likely to gain.
4/n
🇪🇺EU will reverse years of defence austerity, and pro-EU sentiment likely to gain.
4/n
🇨🇳China's market looks arguably attractive given the monetary & fiscal room to maneuver, coupled with the underperformance.
But its policies remains THE wildcard to me. Most mainstream observers have misread both China's domestic moves and Russia's foreign policy.
5/n
But its policies remains THE wildcard to me. Most mainstream observers have misread both China's domestic moves and Russia's foreign policy.
5/n
Overall macro picture:
Higher inflation
Weaker consumption
Less hawkish Fed
More dovish ECB
Longer-term USD caution
Outtake:
Smells like a good setup for gold.
Official instis aren't ready for $BTC, yet.
US chipmakers to benefit from increased western defence spend?
6/n
Higher inflation
Weaker consumption
Less hawkish Fed
More dovish ECB
Longer-term USD caution
Outtake:
Smells like a good setup for gold.
Official instis aren't ready for $BTC, yet.
US chipmakers to benefit from increased western defence spend?
6/n
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