John Scott-Railton Profile picture
Mar 14 12 tweets 12 min read
Massive container ship #EVERFORWARD has run aground in the Chesapeake Bay.

Yes, same operator as #EVERGIVEN.

Yes, almost exactly a year later. 1/
2/ Looking at charts, #EVERFORWARD may have slightly deviated from dredged navigation channel into shallower waters after departing Baltimore.

And got stuck.

She's apparently not blocking the navigation channel, but is quite close to it.
3/ The #EverForward's AIS track is... interesting.

People may read it as: she missed a waypoint (didn't make a turn) heading from Craighill Angle into Craighill Channel.

Caveat: accidents = complicated & AIS tracks can be *imprecise* so take all guesses w/big grain of salt!
4/ UPDATE: was going through wind records (not substantial), speed (she kept speed), draught (lot of empty containers), load condition.. when... @mercoglianos with a video!

Takeaway: he also thinks #EverForward missed the turn!

Now, here's the thing...
5/ The #EverForward is aground in a shoal area of ~24 feet of water.

She lists as 42.6 feet of draught (depth below waterline).

Takeaway: VERY stuck. Getting her un-stuck & back into the 51 foot deep Craighill Channel is likely to be a *big production.*
6/ When you talk about ships aground, tides come up.

Could a high tide free the #EverForward?

As @mercoglianos pointed out, max tide is basically a foot there.

They'll surely work with it, but it's unlikely to re-float anything.

tideschart.com/United-States/…
7/ Investigating what led #EverForward to plow into the shoal's mucky bottom may take a while.

Pilot error? Rudder malfunction?

Key info will live in the Voyage Data Recorder.

Fun fact: the VDR capsule is often mounted on the "monkey island" (deck directly above bridge)
8/ Meanwhile, just to make the storyline more interesting, the #EverGiven will soon arrive at the #SuezCanal.

Battling very strong headwinds at the moment.

We hope she has calmer winds during her transit.

No ghusts!
9/ UPDATE: #EVERFORWARD still stuck in Chesapeake muck.

So I made an explainer video.

My first video... ever. Thanks to @mercoglianos for the inspiration.
10/ The #EVERFORWARD is very high out of the water from bow (front) to stern (rear).

Means: she's grounded along her whole length.

A lot more boat to free from the muck than the #EverGiven.

Expect to see dredges.

Video: @JulioCesrChavez
11/ NOON UPDATE: #EverForward still #everstuck.

Folks asking: is she a "sister" to the #EverGiven? a "cousin"?

She's a different class. Not sister. Maybe cousin.

Naming convention:

"Ever G___" = G Class (400m long: massive)
"Ever F___" = F Class (333.96 m: still v. large)
12/ Speaking of #EverGreen's "Ever ___" naming convention.

At this point, it feels like naming a vessel Ever Lucky is just tempting fate.

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More from @jsrailton

Mar 14
The world loves just causes... and quick wins.

One of #Ukraine's biggest threats?

Empathy decay & media cycles. 1/
2/ Perhaps #Putin just plans to wait out the US attention span.

He did it with #Syria, and it worked.
3/ Why wait passively for the US attention span to move on?

#Putin is giving the willing... something that helps them back out sooner.

Their ranks will surely grow.
Read 5 tweets
Mar 14
#Kremlin propagandists, after struggling early in the invasion, have found some traction.

Example? U.S. 🇺🇸 Google searches for "war crime" vs biolab" in the past 30 days. 1/
2/ As Kate, who has this excellent "participatory disinformation" concept points out, a big driver is the "just asking questions" mode of key influencers.👇👇

3/ Tulsi Gabbard is a great example of an influential account helping to carry water for #Kremlin disinformation.

Her pro-#Russia stance has also given her a big bump in attention since the invasion began.

Read 7 tweets
Mar 14
VIDEO: French activist says he's seized Biarritz villa belonging to #Putin's son in law.

Flies a #Ukrainian flag.

Pierre Haffner says it's now ready to welcome refugees.

Report: theins.ru/korrupciya/249…
Footage clipped from:
2/ Now that we see it's possible...why stop with one villa?

Mini-castles built of stolen wealth dot the French coast. 👇👇
Read 4 tweets
Mar 13
The reported capture of a Borisoglebsk-2 is interesting.

Russia claims:

- Jamming across radio spectrum.
- Ability to locate transmissions

Read: can interfere & locate military *and* civilian comms.

Would include GPS jamming, which can have knock-on effects all over 1/
2/ GPS jamming keeps coming up.

You might not know that some key systems rely on GPS, like cellular networks.

Each base station has a GPS receiver. They are used to collect a time signal that keeps the whole network synchronized.
3/ Many satphones & terminals (e.g. BGAN, STARLINK etc) *depend* on GPS.

Different models, different reasons: from reporting a devices' location, to figuring out where to look for satellites (e.g. Starlink )

GPS jamming can degrade networks & prevent devices from connecting.
Read 4 tweets
Mar 13
Bothered that some prominent progressives have become #Putin apologists?

Sadly, dictator apologism isn't new.

Remember: Noam Chomsky denied Pol Pot's Cambodian Genocide.

He wasn't alone.

1/
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cambodian…
2/ Progressive apologists for Pol Pot pointed to reasonable critiques of US wars in Southeast Asia.

And skepticism about the US Gov.

Problem?

The actual plight of the Cambodian people was an inconvenient truth for apologists' grand theories. So it was ignored.

Sound familiar?
3/ Now, some progressive voices are minimizing #Putin's atrocities.

I get it. He's inconvenient for certain cartoon version of anti-imperialism.

Thing is, this dismisses the actual wishes, humanity & suffering of the people of #Ukraine.
Read 4 tweets
Mar 13
Missile attack in #Erbil, capital of Kurdish Iraq tonight.

May have targeted the US 🇺🇸 Consulate, or adjacent airport.

Meanwhile top "Erbil" tweet?

A blue check account with a false tweet.
2/ Count of # of missile impacts varies... but plenty of actual footage is emerging from Erbil.

Jerusalem Post has a developing story by
@TzviJoffre: jpost.com/breaking-news/…

Footage of damage to Kurdistan 24 Channel via an employee
3/ Broken glass & twisted metal...but multiple outlets are reporting: no known casualties at this point, citing Iraq state news / Kurdistan health minister.

Meanwhile, multiple US reporters are tweeting that Pentagon says no known 🇺🇸 military casualties.
english.alarabiya.net/News/middle-ea…
Read 4 tweets

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