Jomini of the West Profile picture
Mar 15 10 tweets 2 min read
1/ I wanted to briefly expand upon a post I made in yesterday’s daily tread regarding my decision to not place Ukrainian unit dispositions in future updates. Comments on this point have been received and appreciated. I did not come to this decision easily, let me explain.
2/ First, I want to make it clear that I am not impartial, I stand with Ukraine. I am after all the Jomini of the WEST. However, that does not mean I am incapable of being objective regarding the events and progress of the war in Ukraine. I assure you I am.
3/ My goal has been to present an accurate as possible report on the activities of both sides. I feel the exchange of information is critical in a free and open society. But I am a professional and understand that aggregating so much data can be harmful, that is not my intent.
4/ Western media, bloggers, etc. are generally observing the Ukrainian request not to depict unit locations. It is true that the Russians have way better intel on Ukrainian units (or at least one would think they do), but I must consider the liability of continuing to do this.
5/ To balance the scales, I feel the way forward is to generally depict a forward line of contact and not where I understand specific Ukrainian units to be. However, I think that mentioning Ukrainian units operating in a certain area is not harmful or beneficial to either side.
6/ The Ukrainian General Staff is already doing this through their Facebook page, making mention of units in an area but not a specific location. There are posts of the 72nd Mech Brigade in Kyiv or the 93rd Mech Brigade near Sumy; however, not specifically where in those areas.
7/ Therefore I will note what Ukrainian units are operating in a given Area of Operations and who is in contact as I understand it, but probably limit it to that for now. As the war enters a more steady phase, units in contact will become clearer.
8/ I think this is a good balance to still present an accurate picture of both sides, that does not endanger my ability to post future treads, and still answers much of this community’s desire for accurate information on where both armed forces are operating.
9/ I know this solution may not satisfy everyone, but I feel it is the best way for me to move forward. If you feel these threads are no longer value added because of this and desire not to follow any longer, I thank you for the time you did provide to these threads.
10/ I will personally be fine and will continue to present the most accurate information I can for awareness of events as they unfold on the ground. There is a tough road ahead. There will be victories and defeats on both sides. I will report on both. This war is far from over.

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More from @JominiW

Mar 17
1/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 20 & 21: The third week of the war ends with failed Russian efforts to regain the strategic initiative in Kyiv, exposed to raids and ambushes in the Sumy Oblast, slow progress in the Donbas, and brutal siege warfare in Mariupol. #UkraineRussianWar Image
2/ Humanitarian Impact. There are now an estimated 3 million refugees in various European countries. Humanitarian corridors continue to be interdicted, blocked, or attacked by Russian forces. Civilians increasingly become targets of Russian attacks.
3/ Weather assessment. Visibility and wind speed are favorable for VKS execute aerospace operations. Temperatures generally will remain between 10/-6 C, hampering tactical movement, morale of Russian forces, and vehicle maintenance.
Read 18 tweets
Mar 15
1/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 19: Russian forces remain largely static in the Kyiv Sumy regions. Russian forces conducted limited attacks throughout the Donbas. Harassment of Russian supply routes remains effective. #UkraineRussiaWar #UkraineUnderAttack #RussianArmy
2/ In compliance with Order No. 73 of the Ukrainian General Staff, I will no longer be posting detailed publicly accessible information or assessments of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. This is if for the security of Ukrainian forces. Thank you for understanding.
3/ I will only show generic forward line of troops for Ukrainian forces where they met Russian forces. IMO you cannot perceive this war in terms of contiguous front lines or areas of control / occupation, though they do exist in certain areas. edition.cnn.com/europe/live-ne…
Read 18 tweets
Mar 14
1/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 18: Russian forces continued their operational pause in Kyiv and NE with limited attacks in the Mariupol & Donetsk regions. Bombardment of Kharkiv & Mikolayv intensifies. Harassment of Russian supply routes remains effective. #UkraineRussiaWar
2/ Humanitarian Impact. Humanitarian corridors continue to be interdicted or blocked by Russian forces, especially in the Mariupol, Izium, & Sumy areas. The Ukrainian General Staff states Russian forces continue to pillage humanitarian convoys for supplies.
3/ Weather assessment. Visibility and wind speed are favorable for VKS and UAF to execute aerospace operations. Temperatures generally will remain between 7/-6 C, hampering tactical movement, morale of Russian forces, and vehicle maintenance. wunderground.com/forecast/ua/ky…
Read 14 tweets
Mar 13
1/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 17: Russian forces continued their operational pause in NW Kyiv with limited attacks in east Kyiv, Chernihiv, Mariupol, Zaporizhya, & Kryvyi Rih. The Ukrainians continue to harass Russian supply routes & prepare for offensive action. #UkraineWar
2/ A note on map sources. Since the start of the war, I have referenced various cartography sources to build my map graphics. These have included the NY Times, Bloomberg, ISW, CNN, Times Magazine, Google maps, UK Defence Ministry, and OSINT.
3/ From the period of 26 February through 11 March I found the scribblemaps of the War in Ukraine by the team of @emilkastehelmi, @J_JHelin, @EerikMatero, and @sotaajahistoria to be most helpful in pinpointing the forward line of troops.
Read 21 tweets
Mar 12
1/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 16: Russian forces initiate an operational pause to refit and reorganize after failed attempts to encircle Kyiv. The Ukrainians continue to harass Russian supply routes and hold key cities of Kharkiv, Mariupol, and Mikolaiyv. #UkraineRussiaWar
2/ A few updates of note to the overall Theater of War graphic. Internally displace persons are now indicated. An estimated casualty table has been reintroduced and notes the differences of reporting among various sources.
3/ Humanitarian Impact. UN sources report more than 2.5 million refugees have now fled Ukraine. Another 1.8 million persons are displaced in Ukraine. Indiscriminate attacks of civilians continue to mount. Mariupol suffers over 1,500 killed since start of siege. #HumanRights
Read 28 tweets
Mar 11
1/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 15: The third week of the war opened with an underwhelming Russian offensive against west & east Kyiv. The Ukrainians continue to harass Russian supply routes and have retaken suburbs in northern Kharkiv. #UkraineWar #UkraineRussiaWar #Ukraine️
2/ Humanitarian Impact. UN sources report more than 2,3 million refugees have now fled Ukraine. Indiscriminate attacks of civilians continue to mount. Multiple cities are without electricity or potable water. Residents of Mariupol have been forced to dig mass graves.
3/ Weather assessment. Improved weather conditions throughout the Ukrainian theater will increase the frequency of VKS air and missile attacks. Warmer ground temperatures will make off road movement difficult, as recent snowfall will make the ground to soft for heavy armor.
Read 17 tweets

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