Thread by @JominiW

1/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 19: Russian forces remain largely static in the Kyiv Sumy regions. Russian forces conducted limited attacks throughout the Donbas. Harassment of Russian supply routes remains effective. #UkraineRussiaWar #UkraineUnderAttack #RussianArmy

2/ In compliance with Order No. 73 of the Ukrainian General Staff, I will no longer be posting detailed publicly accessible information or assessments of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. This is if for the security of Ukrainian forces. Thank you for understanding.

3/ I will only show generic forward line of troops for Ukrainian forces where they met Russian forces. IMO you cannot perceive this war in terms of contiguous front lines or areas of control / occupation, though they do exist in certain areas. edition.cnn.com/europe/live-ne…

4/ Instead, it is better understood more as a positional war in which Russian forces can only exert nominal control of the area units are concentrated in or towns that are occupied. The territory in-between is contested space, which Ukrainians can operate in with relative ease.

5/ Today’s update will be rather brief as I am retooling these updates both to conform to the UGS Order No. 73 and reformat to better present information / provide a clearer & more comprehensive picture of events.

6/ Humanitarian Impact. There are now over 2.7 million refugees in various European countries. Humanitarian corridors continue to be interdicted or blocked by Russian forces. Russian air & artillery strikes continue to inflict indiscriminate suffering.

https://twitter.com/KSergatskova/status/1503351304839733248?s=20&t=qEEc7CxwxTUORu-wpaTToQ

7/ Weather assessment. No significant change. Visibility and wind speed are favorable for VKS execute aerospace operations. Temperatures generally will remain between 7/-6 C, hampering tactical movement, morale of Russian forces, and vehicle maintenance. wunderground.com/forecast/ua/ky…

8/ Kyiv AO assessment. Russian forces continued to remain static in NW & E Kyiv, no operations of significance have been conducted over the past 24 hours. Ukrainian territorial defense units continue to strike at Russian supply convoys and isolated patrols. #Kyivunderattack #Kyiv

9/ Northeast AO assessment. Russian forces continue attempts at securing multiple lines of communication to ensure the unimpeded flow of supplies in the Sumy Oblast. The UGS assess Russian forces will conduct an assault against Sumy in the coming days. #Chernihiv #Sumy

10/ Kharkiv and Donbas AO assessments. Russian forces have begun attempts to push south of Izium and collapse the Severdonetsk Salient. It remains unlikely the Russians will take Mariupol by direct assault and will instead continue relentless bombardment to compel surrender.

11/ The Southern AO assessment. An assault in the Kryvyi Rih area was defeated by Ukrainian forces. It is assessed that this force does not have sufficient strength to push towards Zaporizhya. The capture of Mikolaiyv remains Russia’s primary objective in this AO. #mikolaiv

12/ Aerospace Assessment. MANPADS continue to take their toll on the VKS. There is reporting out of Mariupol that the VKS is improving air-ground integration in support of offensive action, though how much of an improvement has been made is still unclear.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1503297270355271681?s=20&t=qEEc7CxwxTUORu-wpaTToQ

13/ Information War. Russian authorities continue to struggle to stamp out internal anti-war protests. Ukrainians in occupied towns in Kherson Oblast are still braving arrest or worst to resist Russian forces and military administration.

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1503535198255861763?s=20&t=qEEc7CxwxTUORu-wpaTToQ

14/ Russian Overall Assessment. Although it is difficult to determine the true impact of Ukrainian Territorial Defense Forces raids on Russian supply routes in the Kyiv area & Sumy Oblast, they have been a contributing factor in the stalling of offensive action against Kyiv.

15/ The Russian military does not have the offensive punch required to launch major operations for the foreseeable future. The struggle to adequately replace combat losses and retain control of key towns to facilitate operational reach has taxed out available resources.

16/ But it is important to realize that the Russians still have a path to victory, even if it is slow. I will explore this point in more detail in comings days, but it is still early in this war for either side to turn events decidedly in their favor.

17/ These updates have been aggregated from various OSINT sources, official Ukrainian government statements, media reports (i.e., AP News, Reuters), and American think tank reports.

18/ These maps have been created by me based off the most reliable information of activity in the Ukrainian Theater of War from a variety of sources. Errors will be corrected as soon as they are identified.