Thread by @JominiW

1/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 17: Russian forces continued their operational pause in NW Kyiv with limited attacks in east Kyiv, Chernihiv, Mariupol, Zaporizhya, & Kryvyi Rih. The Ukrainians continue to harass Russian supply routes & prepare for offensive action. #UkraineWar

2/ A note on map sources. Since the start of the war, I have referenced various cartography sources to build my map graphics. These have included the NY Times, Bloomberg, ISW, CNN, Times Magazine, Google maps, UK Defence Ministry, and OSINT.

3/ From the period of 26 February through 11 March I found the scribblemaps of the War in Ukraine by the team of @emilkastehelmi, @J_JHelin, @EerikMatero, and @sotaajahistoria to be most helpful in pinpointing the forward line of troops.

4/ If you have not seen their work, please check it out at the link below, they are doing fantastic work. I owe their team a debt of gratitude for sharing some really good information and helped me to better understand how things were evolving. scribblemaps.com/maps/view/The-…

5/ As I stated a few days ago, I am pulling in new data to present what I feel is the most accurate picture of events on the ground, especially when it comes to what is the most likely disposition of units in contact. Today’s update reflects these pulls from new data points.

6/ Humanitarian Impact. Humanitarian corridors continue to be interdicted or blocked by Russian forces, especially in the Mariupol area. There are reports that Russian Soldiers have begun to pillage humanitarian convoys for supplies. Expect these trends to continue.

7/ Weather assessment. Improved visibility and wind speed throughout Ukraine will increase the frequency of VKS air and missile attacks. Freezing temperatures will continue to hamper tactical movement, morale of Russian forces, and vehicle maintenance.

8/ Kyiv AO assessment. Russian forces remained largely static in NW Kyiv, continuing their period of refit and reorganization for future operations. The Ukrainian General Staff stated Russian actions were mostly limited reconnaissance patrols to clarify Ukrainian unit positions.

9/ Northeast AO assessment. The Ukrainian General Staff states that the Russian military is shifting more reserves to the area for 1) a potential major assault against Sumy and 2) to improve efforts to secure vulnerable supply routes.

10/ Kharkiv and Donbas AO assessments. The Balakliiskyi to Zaporizhya line continues to hold against Russian attacks. Ukrainian forces were able to repeal Russian attacks in the northern Mariupol area; however, the Russians captured portions of eastern Mariupol. #Mariupol

11/ The Southern AO assessment. An advance on Mikolalyv remains the focus of Russian operations; Russian offensive action in the Voznesensk had little success over the past 24 hrs. Russian movement against Kryvyi Rih has been largely ineffective. #Mykolaiv #Kherson #Odesa

12/ Aerospace Assessment. The UAF conducted 10 sorties against Russian supply convoys and unit positions from 11-12 March inflicting significant loses. VKS operations continue to target civilian infrastructure and airfield throughout Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/ArmedForcesUkr/status/1502503370598326280?s=20&t=vwax__lTOP8GNxPdoYCjNQ

13/ The Russians have begun to introduce armed UAVs in support of operations in the Kyiv area. Ukrainian forces were able to down one such UAV over downtown Kyiv. Loiter-munitions are a key component of the concept of blocking a city by fire.

https://twitter.com/ArmedForcesUkr/status/1502706372743471115?s=20&t=vwax__lTOP8GNxPdoYCjNQ

14/ Information War. Ukrainian national leaders continue to dominate the information sphere. Videos like the one below is a case study in real time of maintaining information advantage. It has a profound influence on morale through shared hardships.

https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1502662910459400197?s=20&t=vwax__lTOP8GNxPdoYCjNQ

15/ Russian Foreign Fighters. A Russian TU-154 airliner is currently enroute to Damascus, presumably to bring back Syrian mercenaries. It remains to be seen if the alleged 16,000 Syrian “volunteers” materialize.

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1502326403395731458?s=20&t=vwax__lTOP8GNxPdoYCjNQ

16/ Battle Damage Assessment. Ukrainian military intelligence estimates that since the start of the war Ukrainian forces have attritted 18 BTGs to the point of combat ineffectiveness and destroyed an additional 13 BTGs. This would be ~26% of available BTGs.

17/ Russian Overall Assessment. If the pervious statement is true, then Russia has lost considerable offensive power. Compounded with the loss of several senior, and experienced, field commanders the RusAF face a difficult challenge in regaining the initiative.

18/ Ukrainian Overall Assessment. With an air force of fewer than 100 fixed-wing airframes that can still execute an average of 10 sorties a day and increasing access to SHORAD systems, the Ukrainian military can punch well above its weight.

19/ As long as pressure can continue to be placed on Russian supply routes and convoys the Ukrainians will be able to retain maneuver space that opens opportunity for inflicting a major defeat of Russian forces.

20/ These updates have been aggregated from various OSINT sources, official Ukrainian government statements, media reports (i.e., AP News, Reuters), and American think tank reports.

21/ These maps have been created by me based off the most reliable information of activity in the Ukrainian Theater of War from a variety of sources. Errors will be corrected as soon as they are identified.