Thread by @JominiW

1/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 20 & 21: The third week of the war ends with failed Russian efforts to regain the strategic initiative in Kyiv, exposed to raids and ambushes in the Sumy Oblast, slow progress in the Donbas, and brutal siege warfare in Mariupol. #UkraineRussianWar

2/ Humanitarian Impact. There are now an estimated 3 million refugees in various European countries. Humanitarian corridors continue to be interdicted, blocked, or attacked by Russian forces. Civilians increasingly become targets of Russian attacks.

3/ Weather assessment. Visibility and wind speed are favorable for VKS execute aerospace operations. Temperatures generally will remain between 10/-6 C, hampering tactical movement, morale of Russian forces, and vehicle maintenance.

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1502224853746790402?s=20&t=kkIntT-qzbuZcxiEIF466A

4/ Kyiv AO assessment. The continued inability of Russian forces to execute offensive operations larger than small-scale tactical assaults reveals the principal obstacle to regaining offensive momentum, unimaginative & ineffective leadership at echelons above brigade. #KyivNow

5/ Warfare is a vital and creative process; the great difficulty of tactics is to cause the disparate fractions of a mobile corps to unite in the execution of a decisive maneuver through simultaneous combined action in accordance with the campaign plan, resulting in victory.

6/ Northeast AO assessment. A system of rapid and continuous marches multiples the effect of an army, and at the same time neutralizes a great part of the enemy. Ukrainian Territorial Defense units in the Chernihiv & Sumy Oblasts have done just that. #Sumy #Chernihiv

7/ By moving rapidly between contested areas and striking supply convoys & patrols, the Ukrainians have immobilized parts of three Russian CAAs. Great mobility and frequent offensive movements covered by strategic reserves is the best means of defense.

https://twitter.com/Estebanito_/status/1502563347895570438?s=20&t=kkIntT-qzbuZcxiEIF466A

8/ Kharkiv and Donbas AO assessments. Strategy fixes the direction of movement. In the Kharkiv & Donbas area, this direction is aimed at securing the borders of Donetsk & Luhansk Oblasts, a stated political objective of the Kremlin. #Kharkiv #Donbas #Mariupol

9/ The Donets River is the topographic key to the Kharkiv-Donbas AO. Seizing this line will dislodge Ukrainian forces from the Donetsk & Luhansk Oblasts, threaten to cut off forces in Kharkiv, and open the way for strategic maneuver on Dnipro.

https://twitter.com/ArmedForcesUkr/status/1503745296932773897?s=20&t=kkIntT-qzbuZcxiEIF466A

10/ The Southern AO assessment. Russian operations against Mykolaiyv and Odesa have been curiously under resourced for the importance they seem to have for the Kremlin's overall war aims. #Mykolaiv #Odesa

11/ Russian forces in the Kherson-Odea AO appear to be more of a detachment meant to observe and hold in position a large portion of Ukrainian forces available for the western defense of Zaporizhya.

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1504177012969283589?s=20&t=kkIntT-qzbuZcxiEIF466A

12/ Aerospace Assessment. VKS forces still struggle with SEAD / DEAD of Ukrainian air defenses. Russian losses continue to mount among rotary and fixed wing airframes. The Russians are starting to use UAVs more effectively in support of artillery.

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1503745263017594881?s=20&t=kkIntT-qzbuZcxiEIF466A

13/ Information War. Ukraine continues to dominate the information sphere, communicating very effective strategic messaging to punch well above their political weight and illicit essential international aid across to sustain their war effort.

https://twitter.com/MichaelSSmithII/status/1504110106312679424?s=20&t=kkIntT-qzbuZcxiEIF466A

14/ By contrast Russia’s messaging seems to be consumed with ensuring public perceptions of the war in Ukraine remain at least neutral, if not supportive. Coercing domestic support is critical if the MoD hopes to bring in enough reservists & conscripts to replace losses.

15/ Russian Overall Assessment. Until Russian commanders can grasp and implement unified action, they will remain incapable of regaining any semblance of offensive momentum regardless of improvements to logistics, morale, or manpower replacement.

16/ Likewise, Kremlin leadership will have to eventual face the long-term political impact the war is having on the sustainability of the Russian state as the international community further isolates the ability of the Russian government to function.

https://twitter.com/EerikNKross/status/1504082263843168264?s=20&t=kkIntT-qzbuZcxiEIF466A

17/ These updates have been aggregated from various OSINT sources, official Ukrainian government statements, media reports (i.e., AP News, Reuters), and American think tank reports.

18/ These maps have been created by me based off the most reliable information of activity in the Ukrainian Theater of War from a variety of sources. Errors will be corrected as soon as they are identified.