Thread by @JominiW

1/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 18: Russian forces continued their operational pause in Kyiv and NE with limited attacks in the Mariupol & Donetsk regions. Bombardment of Kharkiv & Mikolayv intensifies. Harassment of Russian supply routes remains effective. #UkraineRussiaWar

2/ Humanitarian Impact. Humanitarian corridors continue to be interdicted or blocked by Russian forces, especially in the Mariupol, Izium, & Sumy areas. The Ukrainian General Staff states Russian forces continue to pillage humanitarian convoys for supplies.

3/ Weather assessment. Visibility and wind speed are favorable for VKS and UAF to execute aerospace operations. Temperatures generally will remain between 7/-6 C, hampering tactical movement, morale of Russian forces, and vehicle maintenance. wunderground.com/forecast/ua/ky…

4/ Kyiv AO assessment. Russian forces continued to remain static in NW & E Kyiv, no operations of significance have been conducted over the past 24 hours. Ukrainian territorial defense units continue to strike at Russian supply convoys and isolated patrols. #Kyivunderattack

5/ Northeast AO assessment. Russian forces continue attempts at securing multiple lines of communication to ensure the unimpeded flow of supplies in the Sumy Oblast. Ukrainian forces will continue looking for opportunities to counterattack toward Chernihiv. #Sumy #Chernihiv

6/ Kharkiv and Donbas AO assessments. The Russian MoD claims to have repulsed a Ukrainian counterattack into Izium on 12 March and captured the eastern & southern outskirts of Severdonetsk. Ukrainian forces will continue to fight to delay the Russian advance. #Kharkiv #Mariupol

7/ The Southern AO assessment. Russian forces are pushing NE on the west bank of the Dnieper toward Zaporizhya and maintain a force of unknown size south of the Kryvyi Rih area. It is assessed that this force does not have sufficient strength to push towards Zaporizhya. #mikolaiv

8/ Aerospace Assessment. The Russian missile strike against the Yavoriv training area in Lviv was more than likely intended to have a political rather than a military impact. The goal is likely to discourage the influx of foreign fighters into the UA.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1502899572644978690?s=20&t=mDDyjE3cWs_V9kSAsUmFoA

9/ However, it is unlikely that the Russians can sustain aerospace operations in western Ukraine to the degree that attacks like these become common or effective. Russia is employing PGMs sparingly and does not want to risk manned sorties to this effort.

https://twitter.com/ArmedForcesUkr/status/1503134585202397189?s=20&t=0Mq0ssA1PSwQCwI7K4G9GA

10/ Ukrainian IADs will mostly be able to cover critical infrastructure in western Ukraine. The UAF reported that it downed four fighters, three helicopters, and a UAV on 13 March. TB2 strikes continue to take their toll on Russian forces.

https://twitter.com/ArmedForcesUkr/status/1503131132791070730?s=20&t=0Mq0ssA1PSwQCwI7K4G9GA

11/ Information War. Ukrainians in the Kherson Oblast continue to hold mass protests in the face of brutal crackdowns and arrests. Attempts at coercing local leaders to legitimize Russian military administration through referendums are also failing.

https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1502973427916939265?s=20&t=mDDyjE3cWs_V9kSAsUmFoA

12/ Russian Foreign Fighters. Ukrainian intelligence reports there are 14 Russian recruitment centers in Syria. Ukrainian intelligence also claims Russia is recruiting from two Russian-proxy Syrian Arab Army units (the 5th Corps & National Defense Force). facebook.com/DefenceIntelli…

13/ These updates have been aggregated from various OSINT sources, official Ukrainian government statements, media reports (i.e., AP News, Reuters), and American think tank reports.

14/ These maps have been created by me based off the most reliable information of activity in the Ukrainian Theater of War from a variety of sources. Errors will be corrected as soon as they are identified.