Thread by @JominiW

1/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 15: The third week of the war opened with an underwhelming Russian offensive against west & east Kyiv. The Ukrainians continue to harass Russian supply routes and have retaken suburbs in northern Kharkiv. #UkraineWar #UkraineRussiaWar #Ukraine️

2/ Humanitarian Impact. UN sources report more than 2,3 million refugees have now fled Ukraine. Indiscriminate attacks of civilians continue to mount. Multiple cities are without electricity or potable water. Residents of Mariupol have been forced to dig mass graves.

3/ Weather assessment. Improved weather conditions throughout the Ukrainian theater will increase the frequency of VKS air and missile attacks. Warmer ground temperatures will make off road movement difficult, as recent snowfall will make the ground to soft for heavy armor.

4/ Kyiv AO assessment. The ineptitude of Russian offensive action suggests Ukrainian forces will be able to hold Kyiv for the foreseeable future. Russian setbacks and staggering losses among field commanders will drive them toward more indiscriminate attacks. #Kyiv #KyivNow

5/ Northeast AO assessment. The cumulative effects of Ukrianian defense of key cities, effective ambushes against Russian GLOCs, and small-scale raids against vulnerable Russian positions threaten to isolate Russian forces in indefensible positions. #Sumy #Chernihiv #Brovarsky

6/ Kharkiv and Donbas AO assessments. Russian advances in this AO have stalled. The Russians risk losing irreplaceable momentum if they do not reprioritize resources here. Reserving Russian gains here can turn events in this AO decidedly in favor of Ukraine.#Kharkiv #Mariupol

7/ The Southern AO assessment. An advance on Mikolalyv remains the focus of Russian operations, however the commitment of forces to an advance against Kryvyi Rih is hindering this effort. Ukrainian forces continue to fortify the Odesa area. #Mikolayiv #Odesa #Kherson

8/ Aerospace Assessment. The VKS remains largely ineffective. Air-ground integration has hardly improved. The Russian targeting cycle lags horrible behind real-time data, as Russian pilots rely on pre-flight info than on-ground guidance, making SVP-24 guided munitions ineffective

9/ Electromagnetic Sphere. The Russians have failed to effectively utilize their vast EW capabilities and tactics to scale. This is yet another example of the inability of the Russians to exercise effective command and control of large-scale operations. fedscoop.com/russias-lack-o…

10/ Information War. The Ukrainian military continues to post compelling videos of significant Russian loses. It is unknown what impact these may be having on Russian Soldiers who might be viewing them.

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1501990200347607045?s=20&t=z_L5KN4q_xMnu1wseGLeeg

11/ There is a danger that these videos can give the wrong impression that Ukraine does not need substantial military aid to enable its armed forces to defeat the Russians. Images of mass atrocities have yet to compel the west to intervene more forcefully.

https://twitter.com/ArmedForcesUkr/status/1502010946012786693?s=20&t=z_L5KN4q_xMnu1wseGLeeg

12/ International Foreign Legion. The Ukrainian International Legion of Territorial Defense reportedly now consists of 20,000 volunteers from 82 countries.
reuters.com/world/europe/f…

13/ Battle Damage Assessment. Ukrainian TB2s rain havoc on Russian forces. The Ukrainians continue to capture Russian equipment because of Russian combat losses or abandonment by Russian Soldiers who are incapable or unwilling to maintain them.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1501775491778420738?s=20&t=z_L5KN4q_xMnu1wseGLeeg

14/ Russian Overall Assessment. Two weeks into the war now clearly demonstrate the incompetence of the Russian military to conduct effective large-scale combat operations. If the Russians to not learn & adapt better, Ukraine can fight them to a standstill.

https://twitter.com/ArmedForcesUkr/status/1501998665254244353?s=20&t=z_L5KN4q_xMnu1wseGLeeg

15/ Ukrainian Overall Assessment. Ukrainian resolve remains high, UA units can conduct effective brigade-level operations, blunting Russian assaults in urban or open terrain. Ukraine is capable of forcing Russian into a protracted unwinnable war.

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1501850944073523205?s=20&t=z_L5KN4q_xMnu1wseGLeeg

16/ These updates have been aggregated from various OSINT sources, official Ukrainian government statements, media reports (i.e., AP News, Reuters), and American think tank reports. Daily reports will continue, major weekly assessments / analysis forthcoming.

17/ These maps have been created by me based off the most reliable information of activity in the Ukrainian Theater of War. Errors will be corrected as soon as they are identified.