1/ CONCERNING MANPOWER STRENGTH OF #RUSSIAN FORCES: Not only a sentiment on Russian Telegram channels like #Strelkov's but for example also by (US alleges Russian state influence) Southfront DOT org:
QUOTE FROM THEIR SITREP BELOW: @bazaarofwar@RWApodcast@MoonofA@GeromanAT
2/ Summing up the developments of the last few days, Russian, DPR and LPR forces have achieved more local tactical successes in the region of Donbass, in the south of Ukraine and around Kyiv.
3/ Nonetheless, the total number of Russian armed forces in Ukraine is objectively insufficient for fast and decisive flank coverage and encirclement of thousands of Ukrainian troops in fortified positions.
4/ Therefore, the Russian military changed its initial tactics of a “cavalry charge” to the systematic destruction of enemy forces and means by using its advantages in aviation and artillery.
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-While fast flanking and encircling of #Ukrainian forces by #Russia would theoretically be possible on many parts of the front, the manpower for this is definitely insufficient.
2/ #Russia will still advance and has the advantage, with low probability of a chance for #Ukraine to turn the table. But due to manpower and logistics, it will take much longer.
Instead of increasing manpower, #Russia is trying to use their advantage in firepower and aviation.
;) I guess this is a trick question, Bill. OFC the US is at war, it is waging a hybrid/Proxy war. Multiple US-led soft/hard coups, with the last one in 2014 being successful. Then the built-up of a proxy force from the ground up, integrated into NATO C3,
with several US and Ukrainian officials stating on camera multiple times since then that the goal of all this is using Ukraine in a proxy war against Russia. US M.O. of using proxy forces for plausible deniability is just as plausible as Putins Green men not being Russian. ;)
US elite that is pushing this policy is avoiding the political hassle, as most Americans would not support a war against Russia, and common people mostly have more common sense than most "Experts" and politicians. And if there is a country right on an adverserys border,
1/ If there was ANY hope for some ending of this war in a negotiated settlement, it today got even harder and unrealistic with #Ukraine killing dozens of civilians purpusefully in #Donetsk. #Ukraine forces in #Donbass front are now realisticly unable to break out into the west...
2/ even though the cauldron is not closed. They dont have the supplies, the roads are either cut off or under fire control, and the #Russian Air force would slaughter them anyway should they move into the open out from their fortifications.
3/ The only thing left for them as option is #Terror attacks on the #Donbass. Shelling has NEVER been as extreme as now. They know they are fucked, and as #Asov they will fight to the death will little chance of ending up as a #POW. Just like in #Mariupol they will take a last
1/ TO NEW AND OLD FOLLOWERS:
I thank the few of you who still followed me after i did not post for years. TBH, in the hot phase of the Syrian War reporting here consumed ALL my free time, and it also impacted my work, my family and myself so much, that i just had to stop...
2/ after years of reporting. Not to speak of the mental toll it took, after watching dozens of beheadings, people being crushed by tanks, burned, drowned, crucified, whatever. If you reported in the OSINT community here too when #ISIS was not as diminished as today, you know
3/ exactly what i mean. Plus, when i was 7, my stepfather tried to stangle my sister and mother, which only was the first of several such PTSD inducing traumas in my life. Which made reporting on PTSD inducing shit even more draining than it already is for the rest of us.
THREAD on Maps on #Ukraine: Best Map Creator dragon_first_1 stopped yesterday bcs people in high places in #Russia "strongly advised" him so. Other good sources: @Suriyakmaps has live Google Map:
VERY Fast is amazing @GeromanAT who has done great work since the #Syrian war. Even though i just reactivated my account after not using it for years, he seems to have worked since then tirelessly, compared to my lazy ass. Absolutely follow him for anything #MENA#Russia#Iran