1/ SITREP #UkraineRussianWar as of 2022/03/15 - OBSERVATIONS:
Follow e.g. @Suriyakmaps @maps_ukraine @NuestraIraSLG @GeromanAT @RWApodcast @colonelcassad @RALee85 @200_zoka @bazaarofwar @gbazov + Strelkovs/ASB Military on Telegram and many others I forgot for updates + details!
Follow e.g. @Suriyakmaps @maps_ukraine @NuestraIraSLG @GeromanAT @RWApodcast @colonelcassad @RALee85 @200_zoka @bazaarofwar @gbazov + Strelkovs/ASB Military on Telegram and many others I forgot for updates + details!
-While fast flanking and encircling of #Ukrainian forces by #Russia would theoretically be possible on many parts of the front, the manpower for this is definitely insufficient.
2/ #Russia will still advance and has the advantage, with low probability of a chance for #Ukraine to turn the table. But due to manpower and logistics, it will take much longer.
Instead of increasing manpower, #Russia is trying to use their advantage in firepower and aviation.
Instead of increasing manpower, #Russia is trying to use their advantage in firepower and aviation.
3/ Still, to hold (even more) territory and to be able to finish this war in weeks rather many months, the #Kremlin will very likely sooner or later have to swallow the bitter pill and at least allow Russian Reservists and Volunteers to officially join the fight.
4/ Pretty baffling that they have not done this already. Not using conscripts for fear of political blow back I can somewhat understand, but not using Reservists and Volunteers?? The voices criticizing this in Russian channels are growing louder by the day.
5/ -Logistical problems are real, if ofc overhyped by the #Ukranian side. Again, not enough manpower, difficult to guard against attacks in the rear by partisans. But road connections are now reaching from RU into #Donbass, and after #Mariupol falls rail lines will be available.
6/ After #Ukrainian strike on civilians in #Donestk, political pressure is rising on #Russia & #DPR, which may force #Russia and #DPR to attack through the fortified front line and push #Asov away so attacks on #Donbass by artillery and Tochka's is not possible anymore.
7/ This will be a VERY bloody and costly move. They face maybe the most hardened fortification in Europe head on, with the best motivated, indoctrinated experienced and supplied forces of all of #Ukraine. #Asov does not expect to be taken prisoner and will often fight to death.
8/ Less costly would be to wait till #Mariupol is cleared and then use those forces and complete the cauldron together with the forces coming from #Severodonetsk when that also is cleared.
Or, like said before, introduce Reservists and Volunteers and avoid costly compromises.
Or, like said before, introduce Reservists and Volunteers and avoid costly compromises.
9/ #Kiev: It will still take longer than most expect, not because of manpower, but because of the massive fortifications from WWII, Cold War and now that protect the city.
10/ #Mariupol: Extremely confusing. But western fortified frontline of #Asov seems to have been broken. There is no more cohesive frontline, more like a giant mopping up operation. #Russian forces are in some parts deep in the city, other districts are outflanked and in pockets.
11/ Russian sources expect full capture end of the week or somewhere along that line. #Ukraine command has no means of intervening or supplying.
No water/power/internet in many parts. Major fog of war. #DNR alleged to lead the charge, not #Chechens.
No water/power/internet in many parts. Major fog of war. #DNR alleged to lead the charge, not #Chechens.
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