General McKenzie, commander of #CENTCOM told the U.S. Senate Armed Services Committee on March 15:
1. #ISKP poses a moderate to high threat to the Taliban& civilians. The group could establish an external attack capability against the U.S.& its allies in 12-18 months, or sooner.
2. #AQ will most likely continue to #maintain_a_low_profile under pressure from the #Taliban, which seeks international legitimacy. AQ likely still aspires to recruit& train, & if successful, restore an external attack capability against the U.S. & its allies in 12 to 24 months.
3. For the U.S., conducting CT operations in AFG from “over the horizon” remains difficult, but not impossible. Withdrawal of U.S. forces has exacerbated gaps in our intelligence. Reductions in consistent CT pressure potentially could enable VEO groups to pose increased #threats.
4. There are additional opportunities for cooperation among the #Central_Asian_States & Pakistan. Due to pressure from Russia (&China), membership in its CSTO& varied willingness to engage with the new TB govt, the Central Asian States are measured in their support for CT in AFG.

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More from @AfghanAnalyst2

Mar 17
#UN asked #Taliban to release all those arrested by the group's gunmen & stop arbitrary detention of journalists & activists.
#Taliban releaaed a clarification about the arrest of @TOLOnews journalists as follow:
"Some media outlets were publishing materials that offended the religious sentiments of our society& threatened our national security, as well as providing ground for some elements to carry ... Image
...out propaganda against the IEA. The relevant bodies of the IEA have held regular meetings with these media outlets& tried to prevent the media from broadcasting such programs. Despite their promises, they did not solve their problems, which is why the relevant organs of the... Image
Read 4 tweets
Mar 14
#Taliban supreme leaders' #instructions to the Mujahidin (Taliban):
1. All Mujahideen should make their intentions pure for Allah.
2. Adorn yourselves with the adornment of piety, elders& youth.
3. Be thankful to Allah, who has given you a great victory with Holy Jihad& his help.
4. Consider fairness & #justice in all affairs/matters.
5. Do good to your afflicted people (the nation).
6. Beware of arrogance, pride, showing off, cruelty & betrayal.
7. Strictly avoid #ethnocentrism and #nepotism.
8. Privilege (promotion etc) must be based on piety & honesty.
9. Establish an atmosphere of trust and brotherhood between you.
10. Avoid actions that create mistrust between you.
11. Do not leave the obligation of  the Propagation of Virtue & Prevention of Vice among yourselves. Perform your prayers in congregation.
12. Avoid corruption ...
Read 4 tweets
Mar 5
Breaking News!
Today is the graduation ceremony of the hundreds of #AFG #police, from the police academy in #Kabul.
Pro-TB sources told me that it is more likely that the acting minister of interior, Khalifa #Sirajuddin_Haqqani, will #appear_in_public and allow media to film him.
And here is unseen Sirajuddin Haqqani, the head of #Haqqani Network, Deputy Leader of the Taliban and current acting Interior Minister...
Is it still valid?
"The Rewards For Justice Program, United States Department of State, is offering a reward of up to $10 million for information leading directly to the arrest of Sirajuddin Haqqani."
fbi.gov/wanted/terrori…
Read 4 tweets
Mar 4
Abdul Rahim #Muslim_Dost, a fomer detaine of the US-run Guantanamo Prison& alleged founding member of the #ISKP, #surrendered to the #Taliban in Nangarhar.
He publicly disassociated himself from ISKP, for the killing of innocent people by the group n 2015. pajhwok.com/ps/2022/03/04/…
In Oct. 2015, #Muslimdost confirmed that he had pledged allegiance to IS leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi& was loyal to him, but condemn the activities of #ISKP in AFG under leadership of Hafiz Saeed.
Below are two reports on the topic:
fb.watch/bxPGsin8_l/ www-alaraby-co-uk.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.alarab…
Muslimdost:
“I was in Terah area of Khyber Agency when I announced allegiance to the Khilafat (IS). Groups of people were joining us and I would convince them, but we were unaware that illiterate people like Hafiz Saaed Khan are damaging the holy name.”
longwarjournal.org/archives/2016/…
Read 5 tweets
Mar 4
#Firing & #explosion reported in a #Shia mosque, in #Peshawar, today.
The attack left many civilians killed& wounded.
An unverified video, showing horific situation after the explosion inside the mosque.
#ISKP is the prime suspect.
aaj.tv/news/30280232
Islamic State via Amaq News claimed Peshawar attack, saying Jalaybib Kabuli, first killed/wounded the guards&then detonated his explosive vest inside the mosque.
"IS fighters constantly target the Shias in PAK&AFG, despite the intensive security measures taken by TB& PAK police." Image
Read 7 tweets
Mar 3
#Taliban announced 28 new #appointments incl. a minister, deputy ministers, senior military officials& senior judges.
As always, all of them are Mullahs.
I will list some of them (on purpose) here:
1. Saranwal (Attorney) Abdul Wali, as Acting Minister of Labor and Social Affairs.
2. Makhdoom Abdul Salam Saadat as Deputy Minister of Labor&Social Affairs.
3. #Qari_Salahuddin_Ayoubi, Deputy Minister of Planning& Policy, for the Ministry of Rural Rehabilitation& Development.
Note:
Makhdoom Salam (Baghlan) was Minister of the same Ministry under TB in 1990s...
...Qari Salahuddin Ayoubi, an Uzbek, is a controversial figure among the senior non-Pashton TB. In 2020, after Doha deal he wanted to separate his way from the mainstream TB, but arrested by ISI in Quetta and forced to stay with the group.
See report here:
dailytimes.com.pk/696521/senior-…
Read 6 tweets

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