H I Sutton Profile picture
Mar 18 7 tweets 3 min read
**Friday thought**

/thread

EU or western governments should set up dedicated information and analysis units using open source intelligence (OSINT) and commercially sourced imagery to monitor and record 'areas of interest'

To win the information war with facts
The unit would see itself as transparency and analysis.

It must never get involved in the less savory aspects of "information warfare" lest its information becomes tainted.
Documenting the build up of #Russian Forces before the invasion of #Ukraine showed the benefit of OSINT.

And certain western govs/militaries played a part.

But it could have been done better.
It would be civilian, partitioned off from military intelligence and not have any access to classified material

Permitted data sources would also be chosen to avoid compromising less well known OSINT

So they could share directly with government at all levels, media and public
Such organizations would be clearly governed and have rules of their road

It could be invaluable during conflict, but maybe even more valuable in peacetime

Such a capability would need to be permanent. Reacting in times of tension is too slow
To add and clarify. Militaries and gov do use OSINT, to varying degrees.

But that is different.

This would be set up to disseminate information to public and media.

That's the bit which is inherently weak if it is within the intelligence community
Also, Bellingcat is different and sees itself differently

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More from @CovertShores

Mar 18
***UPDATE***

Still a significant #Russian Navy presence in Mediterrean, in support of operations in #Ukraine

Highlights:
* Nuclear submarine (tbc)
* 2 SLAVA Class cruisers near NATO Carriers

W/@detresfa_

See thread for more details Ukraine Russia Navy update
**Nuclear Submarine**

Highly likely that the Russian Navy has deployed a nuclear-powered submarine to the Mediterrean. This may be an AKULA class attack submarine, but is unconfirmed.

File image of AKULA class submarine
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Both SLAVA Class cruisers active in the Mediterrean are believed to be west of Crete. They are Marshal Ustinov from the Northern Fleet and Varyag from the pacific Fleet. One was visible on satellite imagery recently. Marshal Ustinov Cruiser Rus...
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Mar 15
**BREAKING**

Russian Landing Ships seen heading towards Odessa, today. Now on Naval News. This is fluid, but may update as we learn more.

navalnews.com/naval-news/202…
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Mar 15
***BREAKING***

Substantial #Russian Navy force, including landing ships, advancing on Odessa area today. Seen 09:47 UTC in satellite imagery

Found together with @detresfa_ Russian Navy Odessa March 15
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Mar 15
**NEW ARTICLE**

#China has an ambition to expand and modernize its navy on a scale not seen in any other country

so...
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Ref Type-003 aircraft carrier etc

navalnews.com/naval-news/202…
See for yourself on Google Earth
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Mar 7
#Russia's forgotten super-missile boat in Black Sea, the BORA Class 'hovercraft'

Thread/

We haven't heard much about these but they are an interesting design. The most powerful missile boats of the Cold War.

Only two Pr. 1239 built, both now based in Sevastopol, Crimea. russian hovercraft
Primary armament is 8 x 3M-80E "Moskit", aka SS-N-22 SUNBURN supersonic anti-ship missiles. Really impressive weapons, famous in the 1990s.

Same armament as the Sovremenny Class destroyer, much heavier than other fast attack craft (FACs)
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Mar 6
**UPDATE**
Thread. Expected #Russian Landing Near #Odessa, Ukraine

Have categorized the landing beaches using Open Sources. Not the same as a real beach survey, but can give you an idea of the issues.

Karolino-Buhaz would be the war-game answer.
nod @detresfa_ @SimTack amphibious landings Odessa map
Not clear how much beach reconnaissance Russia has been able to do. But they should anyway know these beaches well.
Based purely on geography, the armchair answer would be for Russia to land at Karolino-Buhaz.

But that has a lot of urban cover for defenders and the assault could easily get bogged down. It is unclear what the Ukrainian defenses are like here.
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