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Mar 24 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
#Moscow Exchange in #Russia reopens for limited trading in 33 most liquid shares for the first time since Feb 25. In opening minutes it’s up approx. 10%, with foreign sales and #short selling banned and the Ministry of Finance purchasing 1T Rubles (almost 10B USD) of shares Image
First day of #MOEX resumed trading finished up 4.4%, after giving up early gains that approached 12% Image
For context, the Moscow Exchange benchmark index is down approximately 27% year-to-date Image
@AnthonyMVos for your update in the Ukraine space

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Michael Bond Profile picture
Mar 25
March 25 Full update to thread 🧵 on estimates of #Russia and #Ukraine losses compared to available forces, using RU and UKR claims along with the best available #OSINT observations and estimates
Concept
When competing claims are made for losses, setting these claims against each other can narrow the range that actual numbers should lie within. Claims form a maximum and admissions form a minimum. NATO has stated that it uses a similar approach in forming its estimates
Examination of open source intelligence such as photos of equipment losses can further narrow the range or provide insight into which claims are closest to confirmable numbers. There are MANY limits to how much value this range has. This is not a predictive tool
Read 35 tweets
Michael Bond Profile picture
Mar 25
Thread 🧵 on reports of personnel losses of #Russia in its invasion of #Ukraine. I am updating a thread on general loss claims. Russian personnel is so complicated it was going to derail that thread. Larger update w analysis coming later today. 1/
Original:
2/
 Russian admitted to 1,351 KIA and 3,825 wounded in the RIA article on March 25. This sets up a minimum bound
ria.ru/20220325/gensh…
3/
 Ukraine claims 15,800 KIA and 47,400 in a simple 3:1 ratio. Note that because of updating issues, the UKR MOD graphic above notes 16,100 KIA. This sets a likely maximum bound
minusrus.com/en as at 12 noon March 25
Read 25 tweets
Michael Bond Profile picture
Mar 23
Russia requiring some national buyers of its energy to pay in Rubles, forcing them to buy Rubles in the market.

Isn’t it better for Russia to accept foreign currency? If it has for. currency in hand it can buy Rubles later or use it to buy key imports

rferl.org/amp/russia-gas…
I only see this making sense if it is a counter to some foreign suggestions of holding payments in escrow. Russia could cut the taps in response, but that might be too final a step. RU may think this props up Ruble even if payment held in escrow
Any way you look at it, this just seems like Russia limiting its own options
Read 4 tweets
Michael Bond Profile picture
Mar 20
The upshot is boycott #oil and other #energy from #Russia. Tracking variables like a financial condition index are important to see if the economic measures being applied work. Quick explanation of the concept of a financial condition index below
Financial condition index is like the more standardized monetary condition index but uses variables such as currency price and asset price to make up the shortage of some conventional variables such as money supply and interest rate

en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monetary_…
Financial condition indices are usually proprietary and selection of appropriate variables requires consideration. The federal reserve prepares a US national FCI and analysts such as those at Goldman Sachs prepares various international FCIs

goldmansachs.com/insights/pages…
Read 4 tweets
Michael Bond Profile picture
Mar 19
Push Brazil to sanction sugar exports to Russia?

Sugar sales increased around 6.5 times since the beginning of March.
As of March 11 sugar prices have jumped 12.8% in the last week

Vessels carrying 88,000 tonnes of raw sugar are on their way from Brazil

reuters.com/business/sugar…
@calxandr Is there a role for Canada to play in attempting to win Brazilian cooperation on sanctions on sugar export? Who in Canada would attempt this?
Read 4 tweets
Michael Bond Profile picture
Mar 19
Thread on estimates of #Russia and #Ukraine losses compared to committed and total forces, using RU and UKR claims along with the best available #OSINT estimates
Sources
UKR BDA and RUS force estimates minusrus.com/en

RUS BDA estimates interfax.com/newsroom/top-s…

OSINT BDA estimates @oryxspioenkop oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack…

UKR force estimates from The Military Balance 2021 from @IISS_org

Others as noted

Interpretation
All approximations. Some sources update. Data taken March 19, 10 am EST. Not an expert. Biases exist in data sources. OSINT source relies on photo evidence and is an undercount. Local reporting is believed to report a smaller % of UKR losses. OSINT BDA has backlog
Read 23 tweets

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