March 25 Full update to thread 🧵 on estimates of #Russia and #Ukraine losses compared to available forces, using RU and UKR claims along with the best available #OSINT observations and estimates
Concept
When competing claims are made for losses, setting these claims against each other can narrow the range that actual numbers should lie within. Claims form a maximum and admissions form a minimum. NATO has stated that it uses a similar approach in forming its estimates
When competing claims are made for losses, setting these claims against each other can narrow the range that actual numbers should lie within. Claims form a maximum and admissions form a minimum. NATO has stated that it uses a similar approach in forming its estimates
https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1506720278847660043
Examination of open source intelligence such as photos of equipment losses can further narrow the range or provide insight into which claims are closest to confirmable numbers. There are MANY limits to how much value this range has. This is not a predictive tool
Setting the claimed and open source observed numbers into the context of total force size adds meaning. You probably did not know how many armoured vehicles Russia has committed, other than “a lot”
Interpretation
Some sources update and data was collected at March 25, 5 pm EST. Not an expert. OSINT source relies on photo evidence and is an undercount. Local reporting is believed to report a smaller % of UKR losses. OSINT source has a large processing backlog
Some sources update and data was collected at March 25, 5 pm EST. Not an expert. OSINT source relies on photo evidence and is an undercount. Local reporting is believed to report a smaller % of UKR losses. OSINT source has a large processing backlog
These numbers do not reflect motivation, leadership, supply of ammunition or food, terrain, weather, support of allies. All of which will have significant impact beyond what these numbers can show. The purpose of comparing these values is to evaluate claims.
These equipment numbers also do not reflect levels of crew training, equipment readiness or maintenance quality. We’ve all read the truck tires thread
https://twitter.com/trenttelenko/status/1499164245250002944
Perform your own evaluation of the reliability of any information source you come across. I have tried to use reliable sources, but they do represent a range of reliability.
Note that I used my own judgment in choosing among the personnel loss estimates
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intellige…
Note that I used my own judgment in choosing among the personnel loss estimates
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intellige…
Summary
OSINT % losses of Russian Committed (Russian total) vs Ukrainian total
Personnel 21.6(4.6) vs 6.4
Armor 24.8(5.2) vs 7.1
Tanks 24.6(8.9) vs 9
Artillery 8.3(2.3) vs 2.2
Aircraft 4.8(1.2) vs 9.6
Helicopters 14.6(3.6) vs 2.2
OSINT % losses of Russian Committed (Russian total) vs Ukrainian total
Personnel 21.6(4.6) vs 6.4
Armor 24.8(5.2) vs 7.1
Tanks 24.6(8.9) vs 9
Artillery 8.3(2.3) vs 2.2
Aircraft 4.8(1.2) vs 9.6
Helicopters 14.6(3.6) vs 2.2
Scale of claims vs observations
Russian claims of Ukrainian loss % vs OSINT observed loss % (factor)
Personnel 15.5 vs 6.4 (2.4x)
Armor + Tanks 47 vs 7.6 (6.2x)
Artillery 34.5 vs 2.2 (15.7x)
Aircraft 100+ vs 9.6 (10+x)
Helicopter 56.5 vs 2.2 (25.7x)
Russian claims of Ukrainian loss % vs OSINT observed loss % (factor)
Personnel 15.5 vs 6.4 (2.4x)
Armor + Tanks 47 vs 7.6 (6.2x)
Artillery 34.5 vs 2.2 (15.7x)
Aircraft 100+ vs 9.6 (10+x)
Helicopter 56.5 vs 2.2 (25.7x)
Scale of claims vs observations
UKR claims of RU(Cmtd) loss % vs OSINT observed loss % (factor)
Personnel 34.4 vs 15.5 (2.2x)
Armor 56 vs 24.8 (2.3x)
Tanks 46.8 vs 24.6 (1.9x)
Artillery 18.2 vs 8.3 (2.2x)
Aircraft 34.8 vs 4.8 (7.3x)
Helicopters 52.1 vs 14.6 (3.6x)
UKR claims of RU(Cmtd) loss % vs OSINT observed loss % (factor)
Personnel 34.4 vs 15.5 (2.2x)
Armor 56 vs 24.8 (2.3x)
Tanks 46.8 vs 24.6 (1.9x)
Artillery 18.2 vs 8.3 (2.2x)
Aircraft 34.8 vs 4.8 (7.3x)
Helicopters 52.1 vs 14.6 (3.6x)
Major Sources 1/
Ukrainian claims of Russian losses
minusrus.com/en
Minusrus.com includes the Ukrainian estimates of both committed and total Russian forces
Ukrainian claims of Russian losses
minusrus.com/en
Minusrus.com includes the Ukrainian estimates of both committed and total Russian forces
https://twitter.com/defenceu/status/1507278806574415889?s=21&t=S_956jalQaAv9dvtLUgMzA
Major Sources 2/
Russian claims of Ukrainian losses
ria.ru/20220325/gensh…
fb.watch/bZxx_AO6fR/
Note reports have different detail on different days which allows separating aircraft and helicopter claims
Russian claims of Ukrainian losses
ria.ru/20220325/gensh…
fb.watch/bZxx_AO6fR/
Note reports have different detail on different days which allows separating aircraft and helicopter claims
Major Sources 4/
Ukrainian force estimates from The Military Balance 2022
Ukrainian force estimates from The Military Balance 2022
https://twitter.com/hellomrbond/status/1507393679681593353
Major Sources 5/
Russian force estimates from The Military Balance 2022. The stated Russian total force numbers from minusrus com are very similar to values from The Military Balance 2022 within 5%
Russian force estimates from The Military Balance 2022. The stated Russian total force numbers from minusrus com are very similar to values from The Military Balance 2022 within 5%
https://twitter.com/hellomrbond/status/1507394143751974913
Russia: Personnel 1/
Personnel is the most complicated and speculated upon loss figure. It required its own thread to discuss. Please read it if you want to see where the numbers below come from
Personnel is the most complicated and speculated upon loss figure. It required its own thread to discuss. Please read it if you want to see where the numbers below come from
https://twitter.com/HelloMrBond/status/1507457072664875034
Russia: Personnel 2/
The Mar 25 RU admissions set a minimum bound of 5,176 casualties. NATO estimates of 7k-15k KIA. US estimates of 7k KIA ‘conservatively’ now 7 days old.
Ukraine is explicitly using a simple 3:1 wounded:KIA ratio. The admitted Russian ratio is 2.8:1 (Mar 25)
The Mar 25 RU admissions set a minimum bound of 5,176 casualties. NATO estimates of 7k-15k KIA. US estimates of 7k KIA ‘conservatively’ now 7 days old.
Ukraine is explicitly using a simple 3:1 wounded:KIA ratio. The admitted Russian ratio is 2.8:1 (Mar 25)
Russia: Personnel 3/
UKR claim 65,400 (16,100; 48,300; 1000) (KIA; wounded; POW)
65,400/190,000 = 34.4% cmtd
65,400/900,000 = 7.3% total
Personal(!) evaluation
OS 41,000 (10,000; x3=30,000; 1000(per UKR))
41,000/190,000 = 21.6% cmtd
41,000/900,000 = 4.6% total
UKR claim 65,400 (16,100; 48,300; 1000) (KIA; wounded; POW)
65,400/190,000 = 34.4% cmtd
65,400/900,000 = 7.3% total
Personal(!) evaluation
OS 41,000 (10,000; x3=30,000; 1000(per UKR))
41,000/190,000 = 21.6% cmtd
41,000/900,000 = 4.6% total
Russia: Armored Vehicle
UKR claim
1625/2900 = 56% committed
1625/13758 = 11.8% total
OS
213 AFV + 289 IFV + 76 APC + 11 MRAP + 64 IMV + 11 comms + 54 engi
719/2900 = 24.8% committed
576/13758 = 5.2% total
UKR claim
1625/2900 = 56% committed
1625/13758 = 11.8% total
OS
213 AFV + 289 IFV + 76 APC + 11 MRAP + 64 IMV + 11 comms + 54 engi
719/2900 = 24.8% committed
576/13758 = 5.2% total
Russia: Tanks
UKR claim
561/1,200 = 46.8% committed
561/3,300 = 17% total
OS
295/1,200 = 24.6% committed
295/3,390 = 8.9% total
UKR claim
561/1,200 = 46.8% committed
561/3,300 = 17% total
OS
295/1,200 = 24.6% committed
295/3,390 = 8.9% total
Russia: Artillery
UKR claim
291/1600 = 18.2% committed
291/5689 = 5.1% total
OS
41 towed + 54 SPG + 33 MLRS + 5 mortar
133/1600 = 8.3% committed
133/5689 = 2.3% total
UKR claim
291/1600 = 18.2% committed
291/5689 = 5.1% total
OS
41 towed + 54 SPG + 33 MLRS + 5 mortar
133/1600 = 8.3% committed
133/5689 = 2.3% total
Russia: Aircraft
UKR claim
115/330 = 34.8% committed
115/1,379 = 8.3% total
OS
16/330 = 4.8% committed
16/1,379 = 1.2% total
Russia: Helicopters
UKR claim
125/240 = 52.1% committed
125/961 = 13% total
OS
35/240 = 14.6% committed
35/961 = 3.6% total
UKR claim
115/330 = 34.8% committed
115/1,379 = 8.3% total
OS
16/330 = 4.8% committed
16/1,379 = 1.2% total
Russia: Helicopters
UKR claim
125/240 = 52.1% committed
125/961 = 13% total
OS
35/240 = 14.6% committed
35/961 = 3.6% total
Ukraine: Personnel 1/
Total regular force was 196,600 (IISS 2022) before invasion. Note that I have reduced this from 209K to reflect the more updated number in The Military Balance.
Total regular force was 196,600 (IISS 2022) before invasion. Note that I have reduced this from 209K to reflect the more updated number in The Military Balance.
Ukraine: Personnel 2/
Russia asserts that “at the start of the special military operation, the armed forces of Ukraine, together with the National Guard, numbered 260,200 servicemen”
ria.ru/20220325/gensh…
Russia asserts that “at the start of the special military operation, the armed forces of Ukraine, together with the National Guard, numbered 260,200 servicemen”
ria.ru/20220325/gensh…
Ukraine: Personnel 3/
It has been reported that approximately 20,000 foreign fighters have entered Ukrainian service. Territorial defence groups are also mobilizing beyond the initial reserve pool.
eurointegration.com.ua/rus/news/2022/…
It has been reported that approximately 20,000 foreign fighters have entered Ukrainian service. Territorial defence groups are also mobilizing beyond the initial reserve pool.
eurointegration.com.ua/rus/news/2022/…
Ukraine: Personnel 4/
Zelensky stated in a video on March 12 there have been 1,300 military deaths. Ukraine states that military casualties have been less than civilian casualties.
reuters.com/world/europe/u…
Zelensky stated in a video on March 12 there have been 1,300 military deaths. Ukraine states that military casualties have been less than civilian casualties.
reuters.com/world/europe/u…
Ukraine: Personnel 5/
A US official said on March 10 that 2,000-4,000 Ukrainian troops have been killed
cbsnews.com/news/ukraine-r…
A US official said on March 10 that 2,000-4,000 Ukrainian troops have been killed
cbsnews.com/news/ukraine-r…
Ukraine: Personnel 6/
DNR also claims significant Ukrainian losses, but presumably these are included in the March 25 overall Russian claims
interfax.com/newsroom/top-s…
See also en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casualtie…
DNR also claims significant Ukrainian losses, but presumably these are included in the March 25 overall Russian claims
interfax.com/newsroom/top-s…
See also en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casualtie…
Ukraine: Personnel 7/
I am using 196.6K as the Ukrainian total force, as the IISS figure is also used for the Russian force total. A smaller force total will make % casualties appear larger, but this is intentional to maintain a conservative approach to the estimation.
I am using 196.6K as the Ukrainian total force, as the IISS figure is also used for the Russian force total. A smaller force total will make % casualties appear larger, but this is intentional to maintain a conservative approach to the estimation.
Ukraine: Personnel 8/
RU claim 30,500 (14,000; 16,000; 500 POW)(KIA; wounded; POW)
30,500/196,600 = 15.5%
Personal(!) evaluation: 3,000 KIA + x 3 = 9,000 wounded. Therefore:
OS 12,500 (3,000; x3=9,000; 500(per RU)) (KIA; wounded; POW)
12,500/196,600 = 6.4%
RU claim 30,500 (14,000; 16,000; 500 POW)(KIA; wounded; POW)
30,500/196,600 = 15.5%
Personal(!) evaluation: 3,000 KIA + x 3 = 9,000 wounded. Therefore:
OS 12,500 (3,000; x3=9,000; 500(per RU)) (KIA; wounded; POW)
12,500/196,600 = 6.4%
Ukraine: Armored Vehicles
Reserve 547 Reece + 1212 IFV + 622 APC + 87 eng = 2468
Losses 61 AFV + 58 IFV + 27 APC + 0 MRAP + 29 IMV + 1 eng
176/2468 = 7.1%
Ukraine: Tanks
Reserve 858
OS 77/858 = 9%
RU loss claim 1,564 armor + tanks
1,564/3,326 = 47%
OS
253/3,326 = 7.6%
Reserve 547 Reece + 1212 IFV + 622 APC + 87 eng = 2468
Losses 61 AFV + 58 IFV + 27 APC + 0 MRAP + 29 IMV + 1 eng
176/2468 = 7.1%
Ukraine: Tanks
Reserve 858
OS 77/858 = 9%
RU loss claim 1,564 armor + tanks
1,564/3,326 = 47%
OS
253/3,326 = 7.6%
Ukraine: Artillery
Reserve 607 SPG + 515 towed + 354 MLRS + 340 h mortar = 1816
RU claim
636/1816 = 35%
OS 21 towed + 13 SPG + 6 MLRS
40/1816 = 2.2%
Reserve 607 SPG + 515 towed + 354 MLRS + 340 h mortar = 1816
RU claim
636/1816 = 35%
OS 21 towed + 13 SPG + 6 MLRS
40/1816 = 2.2%
Ukraine: Aircraft
Reserve 125 combat capable
RU claim 158/125 = 100%+
OS 16/125 = 9.6%
Ukraine: Helicopters
RU claim 26/46 = 52.1%
OS 1/46 = 2.2%
Reserve 125 combat capable
RU claim 158/125 = 100%+
OS 16/125 = 9.6%
Ukraine: Helicopters
RU claim 26/46 = 52.1%
OS 1/46 = 2.2%
Naval losses
UKR 13
RU 3
Didn’t have time to analyze committed naval forces but may review later. See @covertshores, @COUPSURE and @GrangerE04117 for naval news
UKR 13
RU 3
Didn’t have time to analyze committed naval forces but may review later. See @covertshores, @COUPSURE and @GrangerE04117 for naval news
Here is the graphic to go along with my March 25 update thread 🧵 on estimates of #Russia and #Ukraine losses compared to available forces, using RU and UKR claims along with the best available #OSINT observations and estimates
Here is the March 19 thread in case anyone wants to look back
https://twitter.com/hellomrbond/status/1505216270630895634
Minor correction:
Scale of claims vs observations
UKR claims of RU(Cmtd) loss % vs OSINT observed loss % (factor)
Personnel 34.4 vs 15.5 (2.2x)
Should be
Personnel 34.4 vs 21.6 (1.6x)
I forgot to update that one data point in the text. Thanks to @eiacl for spotting it.
Scale of claims vs observations
UKR claims of RU(Cmtd) loss % vs OSINT observed loss % (factor)
Personnel 34.4 vs 15.5 (2.2x)
Should be
Personnel 34.4 vs 21.6 (1.6x)
I forgot to update that one data point in the text. Thanks to @eiacl for spotting it.
In case you want to play with the OSINT data, here is a link to a data scraper by @mountainherder
https://twitter.com/hrbrmstr/status/1504755988997591061
I think these are the latest time series graphs from @Lee__Drake. Check him out for updates
https://twitter.com/lee__drake/status/1505651018809311239
Ongoing visual breakdown of RU tank losses by @hippke
https://twitter.com/hippke/status/1506886768720756737
For a different style of visual comparison of the raw losses, check out the work by @SirBib
https://twitter.com/sirbib/status/1506081638698176512
Food for thought
vice.com/en/article/4aw…
vice.com/en/article/4aw…
https://twitter.com/kofmanmichael/status/1506842151166132226
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