Thread 🧵 on reports of personnel losses of #Russia in its invasion of #Ukraine. I am updating a thread on general loss claims. Russian personnel is so complicated it was going to derail that thread. Larger update w analysis coming later today. 1/
Original:
Original:
https://twitter.com/HelloMrBond/status/1505216270630895634
2/
Russian admitted to 1,351 KIA and 3,825 wounded in the RIA article on March 25. This sets up a minimum bound
ria.ru/20220325/gensh…
Russian admitted to 1,351 KIA and 3,825 wounded in the RIA article on March 25. This sets up a minimum bound
ria.ru/20220325/gensh…
3/
Ukraine claims 15,800 KIA and 47,400 in a simple 3:1 ratio. Note that because of updating issues, the UKR MOD graphic above notes 16,100 KIA. This sets a likely maximum bound
minusrus.com/en as at 12 noon March 25
Ukraine claims 15,800 KIA and 47,400 in a simple 3:1 ratio. Note that because of updating issues, the UKR MOD graphic above notes 16,100 KIA. This sets a likely maximum bound
minusrus.com/en as at 12 noon March 25
4/
American officials on March 22 said that a ‘conservative’ estimate puts the Russian military death toll at 7,000. This implies high confidence in the figure.
nytimes.com/2022/03/22/wor…
American officials on March 22 said that a ‘conservative’ estimate puts the Russian military death toll at 7,000. This implies high confidence in the figure.
nytimes.com/2022/03/22/wor…
5/
NATO officials have offered a range from 7,000 to 15,000 KIA and 30,000 to 40,000 total casualties.
washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/…
NATO officials have offered a range from 7,000 to 15,000 KIA and 30,000 to 40,000 total casualties.
washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/…
6/
When asked about this number, the US have not seen estimates “as high as NATO’s” and has “low confidence” in their assessments
When asked about this number, the US have not seen estimates “as high as NATO’s” and has “low confidence” in their assessments
https://twitter.com/DanLamothe/status/1506741527971831821
7/
On March 21 @KPRU published an article quoting Russian losses at 9,861 KIA and 16,153 wounded. This was removed and it was claimed this information was falsely published due to hacking
On March 21 @KPRU published an article quoting Russian losses at 9,861 KIA and 16,153 wounded. This was removed and it was claimed this information was falsely published due to hacking
https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1505972650786672648
8/
An even higher combined estimate of 17,265 was claimed to have been intercepted by Ukraine on March 18
An even higher combined estimate of 17,265 was claimed to have been intercepted by Ukraine on March 18
https://twitter.com/mrkovalenko/status/1505961677371621379
9/
Other ongoing efforts to track Russian personnel losses include those of the BBC (557 at March 21) and Rob Lee, who both track reports of funerals and burials
bbc.com/russian/featur…
Other ongoing efforts to track Russian personnel losses include those of the BBC (557 at March 21) and Rob Lee, who both track reports of funerals and burials
https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1500794161963937793?s=21&t=3nTbHmtlp2Sdbon2zKVXHg
bbc.com/russian/featur…
10/
Russian casualties reports may not include DNR and LNR forces. On March 11, a local ombudsman reported 80 military KIA a 1,083 injured and 115 POW in Donbas
interfax.com/newsroom/top-s…
Russian casualties reports may not include DNR and LNR forces. On March 11, a local ombudsman reported 80 military KIA a 1,083 injured and 115 POW in Donbas
interfax.com/newsroom/top-s…
11/
Prisoners of war have previously been claimed as 562 by Ukraine on March 19 and 500 by Russia some time prior to March 12
thejournal.ie/ukraine-russia…
Prisoners of war have previously been claimed as 562 by Ukraine on March 19 and 500 by Russia some time prior to March 12
https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/status/1505212253481672705?s=21&t=jGHx4huzwUDxGGy4Lx9_2g
thejournal.ie/ukraine-russia…
12/
For interest, this claims to be a source naming all identified prisoners held by Ukraine and currently number 412
invaders-rf.com
For interest, this claims to be a source naming all identified prisoners held by Ukraine and currently number 412
invaders-rf.com
13/
There have been several small prisoner of war exchanges, in the single and low double digits of personnel exchanged
There have been several small prisoner of war exchanges, in the single and low double digits of personnel exchanged
https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/status/1507032610559696903
14/
Why is this hard? In May 2015, Vladimir Putin decreed that all military deaths will be listed as state secrets not only in times of war, in times of peace and, later, during special operations when no war has been announced
theguardian.com/world/2015/may…
Why is this hard? In May 2015, Vladimir Putin decreed that all military deaths will be listed as state secrets not only in times of war, in times of peace and, later, during special operations when no war has been announced
theguardian.com/world/2015/may…
15/
Pressure on media and family not to report deaths
Pressure on media and family not to report deaths
https://twitter.com/glasnostgone/status/1506307087122452486
16/
Other complicating factors: The Russians may not know the true number of dead due to bad communications and failure to retrieve bodies. Intercepts suggest they may not have money for all funerals.
cnn.com/2022/03/23/eur…
Other complicating factors: The Russians may not know the true number of dead due to bad communications and failure to retrieve bodies. Intercepts suggest they may not have money for all funerals.
https://twitter.com/mdmitri91/status/1507076323809927179?s=21&t=hf8hKekCkqEPi6O6HgIRiw
cnn.com/2022/03/23/eur…
17/
The ethnic and economic status of some Russian personnel may mean that their loss may not as easy to report publicly
The ethnic and economic status of some Russian personnel may mean that their loss may not as easy to report publicly
https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1506479259866394625
18/
Some argue that measuring individual losses is not as significant as looking at the number of battalion tactical groups Russia can field, on the basis that combat availability is not the same as combat effectiveness. 19/
US recently assessed Russia as below 90% combat power
Some argue that measuring individual losses is not as significant as looking at the number of battalion tactical groups Russia can field, on the basis that combat availability is not the same as combat effectiveness. 19/
US recently assessed Russia as below 90% combat power
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1506418131895468036
19/
I would direct you to some of the excellent mappers for more detail on unit formations
@JominiW
@HN_Schlottman
@konrad_muzyka estimates this
I would direct you to some of the excellent mappers for more detail on unit formations
@JominiW
@HN_Schlottman
@konrad_muzyka estimates this
https://twitter.com/warmatters/status/1506598100533714946
20/
I have been asked where all the wounded are if there are so many? Well, hospitals in Belarus and Crimea seem to be full
rferl.org/a/belarus-morg…
ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/342…
I have been asked where all the wounded are if there are so many? Well, hospitals in Belarus and Crimea seem to be full
rferl.org/a/belarus-morg…
ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/342…
22/
Can Russia quickly replace losses?
“the Russians do not have the capability to bring a lot of fresh effective combat power to the fight in a short period of time. Mobilizations the Russians are engaging in will [take] months at the earliest”
understandingwar.org/backgrounder/w…
Can Russia quickly replace losses?
“the Russians do not have the capability to bring a lot of fresh effective combat power to the fight in a short period of time. Mobilizations the Russians are engaging in will [take] months at the earliest”
understandingwar.org/backgrounder/w…
23/
Context of rate of loss compared to other conflicts
Context of rate of loss compared to other conflicts
https://twitter.com/tshugart3/status/1505996372285214720
Here is the full update thread
https://twitter.com/hellomrbond/status/1507502489880481792
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