When #EV OEMs need to become miners has been the Benchmark story of 2022. @benchmarkmin
What we mean by this is outlined in this thread:
Future EV demand is surging beyond the ability of the lithium ion battery supply chain to respond in full.
As we approach the end of the decade, the number of EVs that’s OEMs want to produce become impossible to make considering the critical battery raw material volumes in the pipeline … if all existing expansions and new mines make it, in most cases there still wont be enough
Battery raw material availability is *the* limiting factor in the production of electric vehicles.
In 2015, 30-40% of the cost of a lithium ion battery cells was minerals, metals and chemicals - especially cathode and anode materials.
Today, this is number is 70-80%
Another big issue: it takes 7 years to build a lithium mine and 24 months to build a #gigafactory
Therefore if EVs mean lithium ion batteries, EVs mean mining
It’s been a obvious link since day one but now we have reached the “impossible” area of supply and demand for many of these critical minerals
This means the traditional ways of funding the mines of tomorrow need to change
This means the ultimate end users - the EV makers - have to get involved in mining if they want to make EVs at scale
How they get involved? With actual money to fund new projects: 25%, 50%, 100% of total investment.
Off-takes with no active mines are not enough.
Another way in? Acquire the guys they own the mines and especially the guys they own the mines and the refining / chemical conversion capacity
“BYD has become the second automaker to take a stake in a major lithium miner, Chengxin Lithium, in a move that secures supplies of the battery raw material following a surge in prices.”
#BASF freezes new business in #Russia but commits to existing business which includes developing a ‘zero carbon’ nickel pipeline into Germany via Finland for lithium ion batteries and #EVreuters.com/article/ukrain…
European battery and EV makers need the more localised Nornickel - BASF nickel unless they want to rely more on Indonesia and China sources for the bulk of nickel needs.
And comes with its own ESG issues to deal with: tailings disposal, deforestation, carbon footprint.
More high quality battery ready nickel sources means more batteries and more electric vehicles.
It also means less ICE vehicles and less oil.
Note: Russia supplies 25% of Europe’s oil and 40% of Europe’s diesel.
Russia’s Nornickel (Norilsk) supplies 20% of world’s class 1 nickel - the suitable supply for lithium ion batteries and #ElectricVehicles (and 7% of global nickel)
Norilsk is the world’s largest class 1 nickel producer accounting for 20% of global supply
Norilsk overall accounts for 7% of all in nickel supply. But EV makers, auto OEMs and battery cell producers will terrified of losing 20% of a market with prices already at decade long highs.
China will not place real any sanctions on Russia and as a result ensure all #nickel continues to flow into its mainland and into Chinese made battery cells and EVs
Benchmark Lithium prices - Battery Grade, EXW China @benchmarkmin
Nov 2018 $11,875
Nov 2019 $7,950
Nov 2020 $6,100
Today $30,025
Structural shortage is set to hit in 2022.
Lithium carbonate prices are at all time highs but easy to see them soar above $40k in 2022
Lithium is the key element that this entire low carbon economy is being built on. With low cost energy storage en masse, speed, scale and economics will fall apart
The passed £1 Trillion US #InfrastructureBill is set to send lithium into a super bull market next year.
The White House has identified lithium ion batteries as a core technology.
“We will get America off the sidelines on manufacturing solar panels, wind farms, batteries, and electric vehicles to grow these supply chains”