Western reporting has the #Kherson region more or less like this, w blue areas having been retaken by #Ukraine. Most reporting has been falsely indicating #Russia was losing control of #Kherson itself. The red line corresponds more closely to the front thermal imagining tells us.
What is clear is also the lack of intensity in the fighting which means Russia withdrew and repositioned rather than being pushed back by Ukrainian counter offensives. Russia faces the formidable #VitaliyKim, who is more of what #Zelensky is pretending to be during this conflict.
Despite this charismatic opponent, It is in the Kherson region where Russia can still score its greatest feats. The drier flat terrain is made for armored drives. It had seemed that Russia chose to withdraw east of the river in Kherson oblast, but this may be false reporting.
If they continue to hold #Snigurivka, then this signals that when reinforced from forces released with the capture of #Mariupol & large withdrawals in the #Kiev area, Russia might yet strike out from the Kherson region for larger gains and potential link ups and/or encirclements.
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Must say Chuck makes pretty flimsy points for such a conclusive statement, declaring the #Ukrainian surrender fake. Western media already repeating of course. Let's take a look at them.
1. Soldiers would proudly wear green beret (black/white shirt) in combat.
This is nonsense.
These are ceremonial uniforms, not battle fatigues nor even everyday field uniforms. Wearing beret in combat is the exception not the rule, certainly not after 1 month of urban combat. I have never worn my red paratroopers beret in the field much less in combat.
2. Unsearched pockets / vests.
This is a better point but ultimately is evidence for the reality and not staging. While a special forces team will quickly & thoroughly search a single prisoner they captured on a mission, mass surrenders in a war situation can work differently.
#Bucha on March 14th and March 10th (cloudy). Some bodies are clearly not visible, especially around the roundabout. This area was the front line between #Irpin & Bucha for a long time. Note the thermal data for the week of Mar 17th. Ironically dead on the Irpin side would point
more to Russian fire than dead on the Russian front line which all things being equal, point to Ukrainian fire. People going about their business & on bicycles seems to indicate all was relatively normal, and fire (ie sniper fire) from the opposite front could suddenly hit them.
The Ukrainian inexperienced soldiers, seeing movement in the enemy front, likely thought they were enemy forces and were excited about eliminating enemies when they were actually hitting folks on bicycles. In any event, while it certainly warrants objective investigation, the
Additionally, the increasing air superiority Russia enjoys in the east makes it difficult or impossible for large Ukrainian formations to move around in the east. Blown rail lines, bridges & incoming muddy season makes supply in the east difficult.
Russia has reversed many of its problems and heaped them on Ukraine by this withdrawal. It can regain the initiative and if it uses it intelligently, can deliver what is seen as a clear victory. However, it remains to be seen how drastic its withdrawal would be. Given the little
information available to me, compared to the Russian command, I would make this a fake withdrawal from the east bank. A sign that this at least being considered was the recent conquest of #Slavutych. Amazingly, the troops coming out of Belarus on the east bank could only approach
Despite the fact that the much publicized #Ukrainian counter-offensive did not amount to anything, & the nearly equally reported encirclement of #Russian forces in NW #Kiev was completely false (as I estimated), the Russian forces have been withdrawing speedily from the area.
While the western media is conflating the 2 events, one actually delayed the other. #Russia announced the end of phase 1 & change of focus over 10 days ago. However, the Russian troops could not begin their withdrawal until the Ukrainian offensive was stopped. This is what
occurred and only after the failed offensive ran out of steam, did RU forces withdraw in good order. This is a complex & risky maneuver in itself, and it was done without units collapsing or being encircled. We also haven't seen equipment in significant amounts being left behind.
#Mariupol has fallen. There remain pockets of resistance. Thermal satellite data tells the story. Fading dots are days old hot spots, bright ones are from the last 24 hours. As we had expected, the fighting moved to the that hotel area in southern edge of the west bank. The last
intense shelling there was on the 30th. It seems to have been clear by the next day or two. April 1st saw a complete lull in artillery fire as forces consolidated the linkup, cleared out taken areas, and repositioned to attack remaining Ukr held pockets. We see no shelling in
#Azovstal industrial for many days now. It is likely clear from any active resistance positions, and the main roads have been in RU hands (including for obs. to west bank positions). We saw infantry forces fight & take the outskirts. However, we are likely to see evidence of
A word about #Kiev in its treatment of #Mariuopol. Without rehashing details previously covered, it is clear that the fall of the city is imminent and that the regime in Kiev has neither the ability nor the intention to try to come to its aid. No offensive is coming to break the
siege nor are any reinforcements and supplies on their way. The defense of the city by #Azov, #Ukrainian National Guard, Army & Naval infantry units has been heroic in its intensity, doggedness and bravery. Putting aside the legitimacy, virtue & honor of all their actions during
the siege, and all the motivations for such staunch defense (of an intensity unseen elsewhere in Ukraine), also putting aside any & all ideologies any of the defenders may have (ie #Azov & right sector national socialism), the bravery of the defense thus far is unquestionable.