John Quakes Profile picture
Apr 5, 2022 9 tweets 11 min read Read on X
Why has a Western pivot away from #Russia's #Uranium🇷🇺⚛️⛏️⛔️ triggered a chain reaction💥 of higher prices down the #Nuclear fuel cycle from enrichment SWU to conversion?🚀 Let me try to explain in a thread that lays out why #U3O8 & U #stocks are dominoes next in line.⏸️↗️➡️👇2
2) Both #USA & #EU rely on importing #Russia's #Uranium to provide about 20% of annual #Nuclear fuel requirements for their fleets of reactors, the 2 largest fleets in the world.⚛️ Reactor operators are now trying to lock in alternate fuel supply ASAP to fill that 20% gap.🛒 👇3
3) Majority of US/EU imports of #Russia's #uranium is in Enriched Uranium(EUP) with Russia having 43% of global enrichment capacity.🇷🇺 Utilities' first line of attack is to line up alternate enrichment, launching a steep rise in demand & price for enrichment SWU & UF6 feed.⬆️👇4
4) To pivot away from #Russia's #uranium requires other enrichment plants in #USA & #EU to increase output ASAP.🏭 They've been in low demand with excess SWU capacity that's led to underfeeding = large secondary U supply⛏️ that's helped reduce the huge #Nuclear fuel deficit⚛️👇5
5) Skyrocketing demand for SWU enrichment & UF6 feed for US/EU enrichment plants has led to record-breaking spikes in #SWU & #UF6 prices.💲⬆️ Enrichers can't quickly add more enrichment capacity so instead flip from underfeeding to overfeeding of UF6 to get more EUP per SWU.🏭👇6
6) Overfeeding involves feeding more UF6 #uranium into centrifuges than supplied by #Nuclear fuel buyers, so enrichers go to Spot market & elsewhere to buy the extra UF6 needed, if available, spiking the prices for UF6 & for the conversion of #U3O8 to produce more UF6.💲⬆️ 👇7
7) Spiking demand & price for #Uranium conversion services to produce more #UF6 is likely to hasten restart of ConverDyn Metropolis conversion plant in #USA🏭 & ramping up of other #U3O8 conversion facilities in #France & #Canada that have been operating below capacity.⬆️⛏️ 👇8
8) Finally, at front-end of #Nuclear fuel cycle, the spike in demand for #U3O8 conversion will force buyers into the Spot #Uranium market to acquire as much mined U3O8 feed as possible🛒⛏️🚛 as fast as possible.⌛️ Chain reaction💥 likely to send U price & U #stocks soaring.🚀 👇9
9) End result: with ~200M lbs of #Uranium demand & only 135M lbs of mined supply, #Nuclear utilities were relying on 25M lbs secondary supply including ~20M lbs underfeeding.😟 But overfeeding flipped that to >20M lbs of new demand🔀 pushing U supply deficit to 80M+ lbs = U💲🛸🌜

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More from @quakes99

Jun 10
1) U may feel gut-punched🥊 or prayers answered😇 by a #Uranium #mining #stocks pullback📉🎭 but every day now we see surging #Nuclear demand⏫⚛️🏗️ while a new US ban on Russian U🇷🇺🚢⛔️🇺🇸 adds even more need for Western #U3O8 in a deep supply deficit.🗜️⏬⛏️ Here's a thread 4U🧵👇 Image
2)#Uranium is a commodity like no other🧬 with unique terminology such as #U3O8, Conversion, #UF6 & enrichment SWU😖 in a #Nuclear fuel cycle♻️⚛️⛏️ where price signals are now indicating huge incoming bull market waves🌊 that perhaps I can help U prepare to ride !🏄💰🤠🐂🧵👇../3 Image
3) #Uranium is very different from fuels like #coal & #gas that are burned "as is" in #electricity power plants.🏭⚡️ #Nuclear fuel needs to be specially processed and packaged into fuel rods that are then loaded into reactors to generate #CarbonFree electricity.🌞⚛️⚡️🧵👇../4 Image
Read 15 tweets
Feb 12
If U are a newbie👶 unfamiliar with #Uranium, a commodity unlike any other with its own unique concepts & terminology such as #U3O8, Conversion, #UF6 & enrichment SWU😖 then this Tutorial thread👨‍🏫 on the #Nuclear fuel cycle♻️⚛️⛏️ may help U to ride the bull wave!🌊🏄🤠🐂🧵👇../2 Image
2) #Uranium is a very different fuel unlike #coal & #gas that are burned "as is" in #electricity power plants.🏭⚡️ #Nuclear fuel needs to be specially processed and then packaged into fuel rods that are then loaded into reactors to generate #CarbonFree electricity.🌞⚛️⚡️👇../3 Image
3)Mined #Uranium⛏️is processed into drums of Yellow Cake #U3O8🛢️that in the West are shipped🚢🚛 to plants in Canada, US & France for "Conversion" into a gas form called #UF6 which is then shipped in cylinders🚛 to plants in US & Europe for "Enrichment" into #Nuclear fuel⚛️👇../4 Image
Read 14 tweets
Jan 25
1) With #Uranium Explorers mobilizing for winter drilling in #Canada's #AthabascaBasin⛏️ it's time⏳ for a thread on how to interpret drill data🗒️ coming soon in news releases.📰 Misunderstanding data can lead to missed opportunities.💰😟 Maybe I can help U get ready!👨‍🏫🧵👇.../2 Image
2) #Uranium explorers drill rock core samples looking for signs of #U3O8 bearing ore.🧐 Rarely do they hit high-grade on first few attempts.😟 Geologists first look for visual signs in the core samples. Here's a description from pre-discovery 2013 drilling at $NXE's Arrow👇.../3

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3) Visual inspection of core samples is just 1 of many steps taken to see if #uranium is found. Presence of radioactivity is best indicator☢️ so all cores are scanned with an instrument called a Hand-held Scintillometer to produce "Scint" CPS tables for each core interval.🗒️.../4Image
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Read 11 tweets
Jan 16
If you've heard about #Uranium soaring past $100 to 16-year highs💯🎇🦻🐦 amidst a global #Nuclear #energy resurgence⤴️⚛️bringing unprecedented U demand⛏️🛒 and wonder how U can invest💵🤔 in U #mining #stocks famous for spectacular gains🎆💰😃 here's a🧵on ways U can play.🤠🐂👇 Image
If you're just beginning to invest in #Uranium #mining #stocks👶 then a great starter🥣 is #investing in a 100% Pure-Play Uranium ETF: $URNM 🇺🇸🇬🇧🇦🇺 or Horizons Global Uranium Index ETF $HURA 🇨🇦 giving U broad #U3O8 sector exposure⛏️😃 while U do your research📚🧐👇#Nuclear⚛️🤠🐂
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The world's largest and most liquid #Uranium ETF with $2.8 Billion AUM💰 is offered by Global X but is weighted at only 70% U #stocks⚠️ with the other 30% for #Nuclear component makers⚛️🏭 & generic miners⛏️at ticker $URA 🇺🇸 also offered as $URNU 🇬🇧 and $ATOM 🇦🇺 🤠🐂 Image
Read 11 tweets
Nov 19, 2023
If you've heard about #Uranium breaking out to new 15-year highs🎇🦻🐦 amidst a global #Nuclear #energy resurgence⤴️⚛️ bringing unprecedented U demand⛏️🛒 and wonder how U can invest💵🤔 in U #mining #stocks famous for spectacular gains🎆💰😃 here's a🧵on the ways U can play.🤠👇 Image
If you're just beginning to invest in #Uranium #mining #stocks👶 then a great starter🥣 is #investing in a 100% Pure-Play Uranium ETF: $URNM 🇺🇸🇬🇧🇦🇺 or Horizons Global Uranium Index ETF $HURA 🇨🇦 giving U broad #U3O8 sector exposure⛏️😃 while U do your research📚🧐👇#Nuclear⚛️🤠🐂
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The world's largest and most liquid #Uranium ETF with $2.4 Billion AUM💰 is offered by Global X but is weighted at only 70% U #stocks⚠️ with the other 30% for #Nuclear component makers⚛️🏭 & generic miners⛏️at ticker $URA 🇺🇸 also offered as $URNU 🇬🇧 and $ATOM 🇦🇺 🤠🐂 Image
Read 12 tweets
Aug 27, 2023
If you've heard about a global #Nuclear #energy resurgence⤴️⚛️👂🐦 driving demand for #Uranium that's in a deep supply deficit⤵️⛏️ and wonder how U can invest💵🤔 in this tiny #mining #stocks sector famous for spectacular gains🎆💰😃 here's a🧵 on the various ways U can play.🤠👇 Image
To build your own #Uranium #mining #stocks portfolio📂 of #U3O8 equities traded in #Canada, #USA, #Australia & #UK🛒 U could choose from the holdings of 100% pure-play '@Sprott Uranium Miners ETF' $URNM 🇺🇸🇦🇺🇬🇧🛒⚛️⛏️🤠🐂 #Nuclear #investing #NetZero #ESG🏄‍♂️ sprottetfs.com/urnm-sprott-ur…

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Lowest risk #Uranium #investing option🦺 is a Fund that stacks raw #Nuclear fuel #U3O8🏦⚛️ providing direct 1-to-1 exposure to U3O8 Spot price.📈👯 In North America that's @Sprott Physical Uranium Trust (TSX: $U.UN $U.U OTC: $SRUUF)🇺🇸🇨🇦 & in #UK Yellow Cake plc (AIM: $YCA)🇬🇧🛒⛏️
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Read 12 tweets

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