Thread by @GanoRalf

#Gasembargo #EconomicCrisis #LNG #LPG
Refusal of Russian gas - illusions and reality

The recent announcement by Lithuania and other Baltic countries to completely give up Russian gas has gotten a lot of attention in the media field. It is presented as a victory and an
1/

appeal to other EU countries to follow this "successful" example.

In fact, the opposite is true. Almost all the gas in the Baltic States is Russian. But it comes at the expense of reverse gas from Hungary.

Previously, the Ukrainian gas transport system could only work in
2/

the direct direction from Ukraine to Hungary. At the beginning of 2022, the possibility was created to transport gas also by reverse, in both directions. The Hungarian direction became the second physical route of gas supply to Ukraine from Europe after Slovakia.

Since 2015.
3/

Ukraine has abandoned direct supplies of Russian gas, preferring to buy the same Russian gas from the western direction, but with a European markup. A new transit contract with Gazprom, signed at the end of 2019, allows Ukraine to use the mechanism of virtual reverse, i.e.,
4/

taking gas from the transit flow from Russia to Europe by agreement with the buyer of gas. This happened in October 2021 in the Hungarian direction, when Gazprom stopped supplying gas to Hungary through the Ukrainian GTS, switching to a new route -from the onshore continuation
5/

of the 2nd branch of the main gas pipeline (MGP) Turkish Stream.

Purely economically, gas transit through Ukraine is unprofitable for Gazprom because of the technical condition of the Ukrainian GTS.
Today Ukraine can import
- 27 mln m3/day from Slovakia
- 8 million m3/day
6/

from Hungary.

Last year UGTSU negotiated with Hungarian GTS operator FGSZ to prolong guaranteed capacity to transport 8 million m3/day (2.9 billion m3/day) of natural gas from Hungary to Ukraine till September 30, 2022. As we see all European moves to refuse Russian gas
7/

are compensated by reversing the same Russian gas.

Let's look at the plan of synchronization of the energy systems of the Baltic countries with the European ones. We see that most of the work is planned for the period up to 2030. The earliest projects will be implemented
8/

in 2024-2025. Conclusion: the Baltic states expect to receive Russian gas by reverse from Europe, Norwegian gas through existing pipelines, and gas in the form of LNG, including from Russia.

Tankers from the US deliver liquefied gas to the Belgian port of Antwerp, which they
9/

buy from Russia at the Ust-Luga terminal in the Leningrad region, passing it off as American. The results of the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists (ICIJ) investigation published back in 2017 show this. According to the materials of the investigation of
10/

offshore companies under the high-profile name Paradise Papers, Navigator Holdings Ltd. registered in the Marshall Islands is engaged in the supply of Russian blue fuel. A 31% stake in the company is allegedly owned personally by former U.S. Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross.
11/

Russian gas is transported to Antwerp from the port of Ust-Luga and then sold to the EU under the guise of American gas from a "reliable supplier.

As president, Donald Trump has repeatedly openly stated that he would impose American gas on Europe at a disadvantage. On
12/

October 17, 2018, Poland signed a 20-year U.S. LNG supply agreement with the United States. The U.S. forced Poland to buy gas far more expensive than Russian gas and used it as a battering ram to wreck the European economy. Now the U.S. has included the Baltic states in this
13/

game, which by their example demonstrate to the European public their"independence"from Russian gas.
The conclusion is absolutely disappointing for the EU. Now the U.S., hiding behind the confrontation in #Ukraine, is actually de-industrializing the EU as a competing economy.
14/

And they are doing it at the expense of the EU, forcing them to build LNG terminals, which will be supplied with a significant amount of gas from Russia under the Made in USA brand, since the US does not have the necessary free volumes of LNG and terminals at the moment.
/END