Thread by @optionurol

Today minutes of March meeting of Federal reserve will be released which are expected to provide fresh details on its plans to reduce its bond holdings.

Next FOMC meeting is May. First week, May 3 - 4.

@JustPunforfun @564pankaj @tradeninvestor @virtual_kg

#FOMC
#Inflation

Hike of 0.5% in May, June and July expected along with rapid runoff of $9 Trillion balance sheet.

That is why 10Y bond yields are going crazy.

#Bonds

In a recent paper Harvard University's Larry Summers noted that since 1955 there has never been a time when wage growth exceeded 5% and the unemployment rate was below 5% that was not followed within two years by a recession.

#Recession

Hourly wages for non-managerial employees rose 6.7% from a year earlier in each of January, February and March, Labor Department data show.

So in my view we are heading for recession and any upmove will not be sustained.

I think major upmove unlikely. Once fed releases its March minutes, there can be major sell off in US affecting us.

Interim top at 18200 - 18300 will stay. It may go up there, to fall yet again.

So be cautious

#Trading
#Markets