Thread by @AggregateOsint

#Ukraine has accomplished a major victory around #Kiev and the defenders of #Mariupol have held out for far longer than anyone expected. Nothing will change how history views those battles. However, there is reason to be cautious about the next stage of conflict. Thread/

First, #Russia has given up on capturing #Ukraine intact. It was clear from their original attack that they genuinely believed that #Ukrainians would be waving #Russian flags to greet them. They attacked very little infrastructure and attempted to merely capture key locations.

Second, #Russia wasted some of its most elite troops in thunder runs into the middle of cities and towns or unsupported air assaults that destroyed an amazing amount of #Russian combat power. Now that those formations are gone #Russia has changed tactics in multiple ways.

Third, #Russia is now intentionally targeting #Ukrainian infrastructure. This type of plan could be called "If I can't have it, no one can have it". They are destroying oil depots, rail stations, airports, bridges, etc. All of the infrastructure is targeted, especially transport.

Fourth, this may mean that #Russia is taking a long view on this conflict and hoping to slug it out with the #Ukrainian military in the east. #Russian troops have had more success in that region and they have primarily been limited by supplies and manpower, not combat prowess.

Fifth, #Russia is rapidly deploying thousand more troops to the east to bolster its success there and capitalize on the success and lessons learned from its troops. This could allow them to encircle the JFO and capture the tens of thousands of UAF in the region.

Sixth, if #Russia used chemical weapons in #Mariupol, and its still not clear, that could be the precursor to additional use elsewhere including against large groupings of troops and specifically troops inside large cities just like #Mariupol.

Keep in mind, chemical weapons in #Syria were not used to kill enemy combatants, they were used to kill civilians so that the civilians would leave, tell the combatants they weren't welcome or punish the civilians for supporting or tolerating the insurgency.

Seventh, #Russia is amassing its troops in a location where it can use its strengths like air power, heavy artillery and limiting UAF air defense and any sort of aircraft. It will also push #Ukrainian supply lines in a difficult location most of the way across the country.

This would also explain why #Russia is busy destroying transportation infrastructure between #Kiev and Donbas. All those tanks that #Ukraine captured? Useless to fight in the Donbas if you can't get them there and rail or lots of trucks is the only way to do it.

All this to say that #Russia is not giving up. They are settling in for a longer fight than they expected but that just means that they are no longer trying to win clean. Expect more #WarCrimes, more rumors of #ChemicalWeapons or actual use, more death in the future.

The key takeaway from this is that #Ukraine has fought hard and exceeded all expectations (likely including their own), but the outcome of this #war is far from decided, and there is still much suffering to be done.