Kursk Invasion August 19 Thread🧵

Major Developments: Ukrainian forces have destroyed a third bridge across the Seym River, further isolating the Glushkovsky district, according to Russian sources. Only one bridge remains operational, and at least one pontoon bridge has been erected just east of Glushkovo (See satellite photo). Ukraine has captured the town of Obukhovka, confirmed by photographs of Ukrainian troops in front of the town's post office, displaying their flag (see below).

Ukraine has likely seized the area west of the Seym River, including Tetkino and Popovo-Lezhachi (see below map with area in blue). In response, Russia has reportedly destroyed two bridges leading into these towns. Russia now faces a difficult choice: either heavily reinforce the district, risking the capture of large numbers of troops, or abandon the district to Ukraine, effectively ceding 600+ square kilometers of territory. The construction of pontoon bridges does not indicate a firm decision either way, as pontoon bridges would be needed to both evacuate and reinforce the district.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that the goals of the Kursk invasion were to relieve pressure in the Donbas and create a buffer zone to protect against future Russian aggression—a rationale mirroring Russia's justification for its 2024 Kharkiv region attack. Despite ongoing Russian messaging about a potential Ukrainian attack on nuclear facilities, there is no evidence of such preparations by Ukraine.

Current Frontline Situation:

Fighting continued across the Kursk region throughout the day, with Russian troops actively searching for and targeting Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance groups in the "gray zone." Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces are consolidating control over previously recaptured territories and have focused on creating a road of death along the highway west of Rylsk using FPV kamikaze drones.

Korenevsky and Sudzhansky Districts: The main battles have been recorded in these districts, but aside from the capture of Obukhovka, there has been little change in control over the past day. Information has surfaced about the possible entry of the 501st Marine Battalion of the Ukrainian Armed Forces into the occupied part of the Kursk region, though this has not been confirmed.

Stability of the Front Line: The front line remains mostly stable over the last day, although significant "gray zones" persist, remnants of the chaotic first days of the invasion. There were multiple missile threats, including seven alerts in the past 24 hours, Ukraine likely used a missile to destroy the third bridge over the Seym, but this needs confirmation.

Local Challenges and Civilian Evacuation: The head of the Korenevsky district reported a difficult operational situation, with some citizens attempting to return home, thereby complicating military operations. Returning to the district remains impossible for local residents, sometimes resulting in tragic outcomes.

Ukrainian Losses and Russian Operations: Ukrainian and Russian forces continue to suffer heavy losses in armored vehicles and personnel in Kursk. Objective control footage analyzed by Western media suggests that Ukrainian equipment losses have increased significantly since the invasion of the Kursk region due to the use of western armor and weapons in the region. Recent footage shows a strike on Ukrainian forces in the region by a FAB-3000 bomb with UMPK guidance, although the footage merely shows a bomd striking a forest.

Other Frontline Developments:

Toretsk Direction: The Russian Armed Forces are advancing, with reports indicating the fall of Ukrainian defenses in the village of New York (Novgorodskoye) and a push towards Mirnograd, approximately 10 kilometers from the front line near Pokrovsk.

Zaporizhzhya Front: The Kamensk section is becoming increasingly hazardous due to tank movements, as Russian troops prepare for a possible Ukrainian attempt to reach the nuclear power plant. Ukrainian forces have concentrated reserves in this area, including armored vehicles. Despite Russian claims, there has been little evidence that Ukraine is preparing some sort of attack across the Dnipro River against the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.

Overall, the situation in the Kursk region remains highly fluid, with both sides engaged in intense operations as they attempt to gain the upper hand.

Ukrainian troops have captured the town of Obukhovka (Обуховка) as confirmed by the geolocation below. This town was believed to have been captured, but this confirmed the Ukrainian military presence. The town is just southeast of Snagost'.

https://x.com/Eternal_January/status/1825322034093854776

Kursk Invasion: August 17

The situation in the Kursk direction remains complex, with Ukrainian forces persistently attempting to breach the defensive lines of the Russian Armed Forces across various sectors.

Major Developments:
Ukraine destroyed 2 out of 4 bridges over the Seym River in Glushkovsky district (a third destroyed bridge is rumored). Ukraine has started its push towards the isolated district. Russian forces beheaded a dead Ukrainian soldier and put his head on a pike at the Kolotilovka checkpoint in Belgorod. The front line has not stabilized with fighting taking place across the region and continued quick advances and territorial losses. Journalists have entered the region and toured the area under Ukrainian control. Ukraine continues to capture large numbers of Russian conscripts. Russia has still not moved large amounts of contract soldiers into this region.

Glushkovo District:
Multiple Russian sources report that the Russian army has surrendered an additional 15 square kilometers of the Kursk oblast to Ukraine, withdrawing its forces across the Seym River and conceding control of the village of Otruba to Ukrainian forces (although reports suggest that Ukrainian forces might not yet be fully established there). This was confirmed by @JulianRoepcke and the first map below is from him. In response to the destruction of a bridge in Glushkovo (video below), Russian troops have constructed a pontoon crossing to maintain logistical support.

Korenevo District:
Evidence indicates the presence of Ukrainian forces in Russkoye Porechnoye, the site of recent fighting. Footage published online shows strikes on Ukrainian armored vehicles in the center of the village, underscoring the ongoing intensity of the conflict in this area.

Sudzha District:
In Sudzha, Ukrainian formations continue to record footage in the western part of the city, including near a "Magnit" store on May 1st Street. Western journalists have toured the city, further cementing the fact that Ukraine controls the city.

Belovo District:
The situation in the Belovo District remains largely unchanged, with no reported clashes in the areas of Kamyshnoe and Giria over the past day. Following the Russian Ministry of Defense's claim that the settlement of Ozërki was cleared a few days ago, no further reports of battles in the area have been received, indicating that the village is currently under Russian control.

Maneuver Warfare and Regional Clashes:
The conflict in the Kursk region continues to be characterized by maneuver warfare, with Ukrainian forces attempting to occupy territory and populated areas through raids, while the Russian Armed Forces counter these efforts with defensive actions. Recent battles have occurred near Olgino, Spalnoye, Korenevo, and Martynovka, with both sides maintaining a focus on Sudzha, where clashes are ongoing to several kilometers east of the city.

Armored Engagements and Equipment Losses:
Objective control footage reveals that Ukrainian forces are losing armored vehicles in battle, with some vehicles being destroyed rather than captured. The intensity of these head-on clashes has drawn comparisons to the Kursk Bulge, as confirmed by video recordings of close-range battles between armored vehicles. Footage from Russian Telegram channels also shows a Russian soldier destroying an abandoned BMP-1 of the Ukrainian Armed Forces with a canister of gasoline instead of capturing it.

Drone Warfare and Technological Engagements:
The Russian Army continues to increase the deployment of FPV drones along the front, breaking records for daily usage. Ukraine is responding in kind, leading to conflicting reports about which side holds the technological advantage in this sector.

Reinforcements and Strategic Positioning:
Ukrainian forces are reinforcing their positions with elite units, including the confirmed deployment of the 95th Separate Airborne Assault Brigade. Russia continues to move conscripts into the area but not elite units. Russia has moved some soldiers off of the eastern front, but the numbers have been limited. Russia remains focused on attacking defensive positions along the eastern front for now.

Civilians and Evacuation Efforts:
The evacuation of civilians continues in across Kursk with Lgov Mayor Alexey Klemeshov advising residents not to return until the situation stabilizes.

Belgorod Region and Broader Strategic Ambitions:
In the neighboring Belgorod region, Ukrainian forces are attempting to breach Russian defenses, with ongoing battles at the Kolotilovka checkpoint and continued shelling of the area. Recent confirmed pictures from the checkpoint show that Russians have placed a dead Ukrainian soldiers head on a pike and raised it on the border, raising outrage from Ukraine, who has lodged a complaint with the UN. Russia continues to claim that Ukrainian forces are also amassing reserves for a potential offensive on the Zaporizhzhya front and concentrating landing forces in the Kherson region and Crimea. The recent destruction of missiles near the Crimean Bridge and engagements with Ukrainian naval drones in the Black Sea underscore Kyiv's broader strategic ambitions in the south.

Below is the current Russian map from @rybar_force in Red and the Ukrainian map from @UAControlMap in yellow. Watch as a GBU-39 glide bomb, released from a Ukrainian Su-27, targets Russian positions in Vnezapnoe, Kursk region. The Ukrainian Air Force continues to deliver limited air support deep within Russian territory. See the map below for the exact location. This footage was released today but is likely 1-2 days old.

Kursk Invasion - August 15 Update

A Tale of Two Invasions
Ukraine continues to make significant advances in Kursk, likely capturing close to 1,000 km² of Russian territory. Pro-Ukrainian information and propaganda efforts have primarily focused on the territory gained and the release of POW videos. Meanwhile, Russian propaganda emphasizes casualty counts, destroyed or captured weapons and equipment, and their real advances on the eastern front in Ukraine. As a result, both Russia and Ukraine claim to have the upper hand in the Kursk conflict, each using different criteria to measure success.

Significant Events: Overnight, intense fighting erupted in the Korenevo area, with reports of powerful explosions around midnight. Concurrently, the acting governor issued a missile threat warning for the region. Russian claims of repelling Ukrainian assaults on Korenevo have softened, suggesting that Ukraine may be making progress in the city. The capture of Korenevo would be a significant victory for Ukraine.

Russian Strikes on Sumy Region: Multiple Russian strikes targeted industrial areas in the Sumy region, where Ukrainian forces were reportedly hiding personnel and equipment before sending them across the border.

Ukrainian Aviation Strikes: Russian sources have repeatedly stated that Ukrainian aviation is involved in the fight in the Kursk region. JDAMs have been dropped by fixed-wing aircraft, but the specific type of aircraft involved remains unidentified.

Russian Reinforcements: Russia is pulling reserves out of eastern Ukraine to bolster defenses in Kursk, indicating growing concern about losing additional territory in the region.

No Front Lines: Both sides report that there is no traditional front line like the one on the eastern front. Instead, defensive nodes act as strong points while maneuver units seek out weak points or poorly defended areas to attack.

Ukrainian Evacuations in Sumy: In response to the escalating conflict, Ukrainian authorities have begun evacuating 183 settlements in the Sumy region, with over 20,000 people already relocated. This evacuation allows Ukrainian troops to quarter in civilian buildings, complicating Russian strikes and enhancing counterintelligence efforts. The tactic also aims to mitigate the risk of local opposition sharing information with Russian intelligence.

Russian Evacuations in Kursk: The acting governor of Kursk announced the mandatory evacuation of the Glushkov district, which affects around 20,000 people. This indicates that Russian authorities believe the district is at risk of attack and capture by Ukrainian forces. There is a high likelihood that Ukraine will accelerate its advances in this direction in the coming days. See the below map from Russian sources with outlined red areas.

Ukrainian Raid Operations in Kursk: Ukrainian forces continue raid operations in the Kursk region. Overnight, they attempted to covertly move infantry and equipment, including tanks. Yesterday, Ukrainian troops attacked the villages of Korenevo, Olgovka, Pogrebki, Russkoye Porechnoye, and Cherkesskoye Porechnoye.

Russian Forces Repel Attacks: The Russian Armed Forces’ North Group reported that Ukrainian attacks in the Martynovka and Olgovka areas were repelled. While attacks on Korenevo were also repelled, Ukraine seems to be sustaining the assault overnight and into the morning.

Ongoing Tension Along the Border: The situation remains tense across other border areas. In Tetkino, a Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance group was detected. Meanwhile, Russia is conducting strikes against Ukrainian forces near the Kolotilovka checkpoint in Belgorod, attempting to suppress additional assaults on Belgorod before Ukrainian forces establish a bridgehead across the border. So far, these suppression efforts have been successful.

The second map is from @UAControlMap and provides a general approximation of the situation on the ground.

Remaining Kursk information will be posted below.
Ukrainian forces have captured the town of Liubimovka in Kursk region and removed the Russian flag from the town center. This is amidst ongoing attacks on Korenevo and the capture of Snagost two days ago.

Kursk Invasion Thread - Day 6

The head of the Belovsky district, Volobuyev, reported that the situation in Belaya remains stable but tense. Later, acting governor Smirnov confirmed that a Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance group had infiltrated the Belovsky district but was successfully repelled.

During the night, Ukrainian missiles targeted Kursk.

The presence of Russian Armed Forces in the settlement of Martynovka has been confirmed. Russians control most if not all of the village. Ukraine is renewing its attacks on the village in an attempt to cut off Sudzha, with ongoing fighting in the vicinity and in this strategic direction.

Over the past 24 hours, Ukrainian drones violated Belarusian airspace, prompting Belarus to move military equipment to the border region. Units have already been transferred, and President Lukashenko has vowed to personally investigate the incident. Belarus has also threatened to expel the Ukrainian ambassador.

The Russian National Guard has joined the battles as a direct combat unit.

Ukrainian troops have released a video from the village of Guevo, located south of Sudzha, right on the border.

Russian aviation continues to strike Ukrainian positions, serving as the primary force causing Ukrainian casualties. Footage has been released showing a Ukrainian convoy being struck by a Mi-28NM helicopter, though it has been confirmed that three Russian Ka-52 helicopters have been shot down.

Ukrainian troops have been confirmed near the villages of Kremyanoye and Olgovka.

Ukraine is moving reserves into the Kursk region to hold territory and construct defensive positions.

Over 76,000 Russian civilians have been evacuated from the region, with many more expected to leave soon.

Russia is struggling to bring sufficient troops into the region to repel the Ukrainian invasion, while Ukraine continues to reinforce its positions. This battle is unlikely to be resolved quickly.

Maps below represent the ISW map, Russian acknowledged Ukrainian control, the village of Guevo and the video of Ukrainian troops taking down the Russian flag in Guevo and installing the Ukrainian flag. Watch footage of the first hours of the Ukrainian invasion of Kursk. This footage was first published by @Deepstate_UA. The Russian prisoners were conscripts.

URGENT Kursk Front Update

1. Russian Troops Expelled: Russian sources report that their forces were driven out of the village of Sverdlikovo overnight.

2. Encircled Russian Soldiers: An unknown number of Russian soldiers are nearly encircled in Oleshnya, with escape routes cut off.

3. Ukrainian Air Defense Dominance: Ukraine has concentrated a significant air defense presence in the Sumy region near the border, effectively keeping Russian aviation out of the area or forcing them to fly too low to be effective.

4. Ukrainian Advance: Ukrainian forces have advanced significantly up the 38K-004 highway towards the western edge of Sudzha - Goncharovka. Unconfirmed reports indicate that fighting is ongoing in the settlement, marking a 5-mile (8km) push into Russian territory.

5. Rumored Russian Counterattack: There are unconfirmed rumors of a Russian counterattack at dawn, though these reports seem tied to efforts to maintain morale among Russian troops.

6. Civilian Evacuation: The civilian population of Sudzha was evacuated during the night.

7. Chechen Forces Abandon Posts: Several Russian sources have claimed that Chechen Akhmat special forces, stationed along the border, abandoned their posts when the Ukrainian forces attacked.

Multiple Russian sources, including @rybar_force, have confirmed this information, with maps showing that Ukraine has taken control of at least two areas within Russian territory, as depicted in the inset map on the left. Russian source Two Majors on telegram: "The next 24 hours will be difficult. The enemy has at least a motorized infantry battalion on the territory, up to two thousand personnel as a second echelon, uses many drones, and skillfully uses air defense and electronic warfare systems."

BREAKING - Gunfire Erupts Across Russia

There are now three confirmed incidents of police coming under fire deep inside Russia. Current incidents:

1. Derbent, Dagestan - Two police officers are reportedly dead. At least six other have been injured. A church and synagogue were reportedly shelled.

2. Makhachkala, Dagestan - One police officer, one priest in a church and one security guard are reportedly dead. Six police officers have evidently been wounded. A church was attacked by unknown militants. The parishioners locked themselves inside and waited for police.

3. Gagra region of Abkhazia - One police officer was reportedly killed and three other people injured close to the Russia-Georgia border.

Videos from each incident are below. Video from Derbents shows the faces of the attackers. Two appear wounded and the militants have captured a police vehicle.

Update - 9 days ago, for reasons unknown to us, Twitter shadow banned the @AggregateOsint account. We took a 72 hour pause as a last ditch effort to shake the ban before taking more drastic measures. The ban appears to have been lifted. Here is a thread on what we experienced.🧵 First off, posting this may result in a new shadow ban. We are posting this as a PSA for others who find themselves in this mysterious & undefined Twitter grey zone. We spent many hours trying to determine what had gone wrong and how to fix it. Maybe this post can help others.

Let's take a look at the topography of #Severodonetsk and examine the role it is playing in the battle for the city.

#Severodonetsk is flanked to the SW by hills running along the Donets River that are between 300-500 feet higher than the city as shown in the topo map below. 🧵 This offers a series of advantages to whoever holds the hills. Some of those assets are: Observation, better cover, excellent firing positions, ability to fire from defilade, and one of the most important assets in this battle, the ability to observe and adjust artillery fire.

#Lyman Axis - #Russian forces have likely already captured or are in the process of capturing Svyatohirs'k, after the bridge SE to the Donets River was destroyed, This cut off all supplies or reinforcements. Bridge destruction was confirmed via video below. #NASA #FIRMS 24 hour data shows huge fires in Svyatohirsk & Bohorodychne, especially when considering the cities small size. This indicates that some type of shelling or other explosive discharges are very concentrated on these two cities. This is likely #RuAF artillery fire.

#Severodonetsk - #Ukraine suffered a major setback to its counterattack in the last day & has been pushed back into the industrial zone in the W of the city. #Russian forces have advanced forward of previous lines but a blistering artillery barrage from both sides is underway. #NASA FIRMS 24 hours data shows that huge sections of the city were on fire today, which is an indicator of shelling or explosives. The shelling appears to be from #Ukraine & #Russian directed at both forward units and resupply and command control areas of the opposite side.

#Ukrainian forces reportedly shot down a #Russian SU-25 near Orikhiv Оріхів in #Zaporizhzhya Oblast. The plane burns as it hurtles through the air until it crashes into the ground. #Ukrainians can be heard celebrating. Here is a second longer video of the same hit. It shows the fireball when the plane hits the ground.

The #UnitedStates has released details concerning the new $700 million military aid package to #Ukraine. The package includes:
-Four High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) and ammo (# or type not specified)
-Five counter-artillery radars
-Two air surveillance radars -6,000 antiarmor weapons
-15,000 rounds of 155 mm artillery
-Four Mi-17 helicopters
-15 tactical vehicles
-Spare parts and equipment. More: 👇 cnbc.com/amp/2022/06/01…

#Lyman Axis - #Russian troops continue to consolidate on the NE side of the Donets River and captured Yarova today. The small city lies around 7mi/11km NW of Lyman. #Ukrainian troops are retreating from Yarova, and likely Sosnove as well, towards Sviatohirsk. Heavy fighting was reported in Sosnove, Studenok and Shchurove, but #Ukrainian troops will have to give ground soon to avoid being trapped on the NE of the Donets. #UAF is consolidating in Sviatohirsk, where they will likely make a last stand before retrograding over the river.

#Kherson Axis - The first videos are coming out from the #Ukrainian counteroffensive in Davydiv Brid. The extent of newly captured terrain is unclear but #UAF is moving heavy equipment & troops across the Inhulets River to attack #Russian forces in the area. Videos in next tweet. This video shows #Ukrainian troops moving into an already liberated settlement of Davydiv Brid. The lack of fighting or tactical posture means the frontlines are likely far away from this position.

#Severodonetsk - #Russian troops have made significant advances in the city today. #RUAF has advanced beyond the city concert hall & have captured government buildings in the city center. Geolocated videos show #RUAF in control of at least 50% of the city. Videos in next tweet. Videos of #Chechen fighters from today show a tour of the city center. The blue and white roofed building has been geolocated to: 48.94644, 38.49439. The lack of fighting or tactical posture by #Chechen's indicates that the frontlines are far away from this location.

#Kherson Axis - #Ukrainian troops have launched a counterattack 40 mi/65km NE of #Kherson City with the stated goal of destroying #Russian supply lines to the N. #Ukraine has captured Davydiv Brid & has gained ground and possibly total control in Lozove, Bilohirka & Andriivka. This counterattack had to cross the Inhulets River, which had been serving as a defensive boundary and line of contact for #Russia & #Ukraine up to this point. #Ukraine has stated that the #UAF did not cross the river at Davydiv Brid, & instead used a crossing bridge "downriver".

#Mariupol - #Russia has managed to re-open the port in Mariupol with the first ships docking there this week. Their first order of business has been to load up the remaining rolled steel that was produced at #Azovstal by #Ukraine & ship it to Rostov-on-Don, #Russia for offload. #Russia struggled to initially re-open the port due to anti-ship mines placed by #Ukrainian forces to defend against an amphibious assault. The rolled steel shown below and taken by Russia may be the last ever produced at #Azovstal as its production capability has been destroyed.

The #UnitedStates is considering whether to send HIMARS to #Ukraine in its fight against #Russia. What is the M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) and could a deep strike precision guided munition tip the scales towards #Ukraine in the #UkraineRussiaWar? HIMARS are capable of firing both rockets & missiles. The most common rocket is the Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System M31A1 rocket (see below) that comes in pods of 6 rockets. These rockets can travel beyond 70km (reportedly 84km) to strike targets with an accuracy of 2m.

After posting this video we received multiple allegations that the occupants of this vehicle were #Ukrainian Soldiers in a stolen civilian vehicle. So, we decided to take a deep dive into the video to find out more about the occupants and the video. Here is what we found. 🧵

https://twitter.com/AggregateOsint/status/1528914121994952705

At the 0:02 mark in the rearview mirror you can briefly see the person in the passenger seat has on a black flak jacket and the letters PRE are clearly visible. Black flak jackets are frequently worn by the press in war zones to protect journalists and are marked w "PRESS".

#UkraineRussianWar Update - No confirmed changes in control of terrain today. #Russian forces focused on consolidation and preparation for assaults on Soledar, Severodonetsk, Lyman & New York. There was an an overall decrease in #RUAF attacks today, but an uptick in shelling. #Ukraine repelled attacks S of Dovhenke, around Ternova, Severodonetsk & Lypove. #Russia is consolidating gains W and NW of #Popasna to prepare for future N, W & S assaults there to expand its zone of control. Around Kherson #Russian forces continue to build permanent defenses.

#Donetsk Axis - #Russian forces have captured the town of Novoselivka, Donetsk Oblast. The capture of this town will allow #Russian forces to assault the town of Niu-York immediately to the N. Multiple pro-Russian accounts have reported #RUAF in Niu-York but that is inaccurate. Niu-York is a strategically critical, but tactically difficult city for #Ukraine to defend. If #Russia can capture the city it will open the door to bypassing #Ukrainian defenses to the E. #Russia has made no progress towards Toretsk in 3 months & is looking for a new approach.