Dave Keating Profile picture
Apr 13 โ€ข 8 tweets โ€ข 4 min read
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ช#Sweden and ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ฎ#Finland's prime ministers have just held a joint press conference outlining plans to join #NATO.

๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ฎ expected to move first. PM Marin says she won't give a timetable but "it will happen quite fastโ€”within weeks, not within months, we will have the discussion"
๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ฎ&๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ช"will deliver decisions independently" says Marin. Assumption has always been ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ช can't join unless ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ฎ does 1st.

"Of course...I would prefer that we would make the similar kinds of choices for the whole regionโ€”but it's up to Sweden to decide for yourself"
Sweden's SvD reports that the ruling Social Democrats have already decided to apply for NATO membership (but must wait for Finland to decide to do so first), and will submit the application at the Madrid summit at end of June.
svd.se/a/Wj5gW2/uppgiโ€ฆ
"What is happening in the discussion in ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ฎ is important for us to follow, therefor we need to have very close contacts," says ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ชPM. "But we need a process in Sweden to think this through"

But asked about SvD report, she doesn't deny that the government's aim is now to join.
"Of course there are both pros and cons with being a member of #NATO," says ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ชPM Magdalena Andersson.

"Being a member of NATO you have the security of Article 5...that is not something you do not have in other arrangements."

(Other arrangements being ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ)
๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ฎPM Marin agrees. "What is the best way to secure that this [Russian invasion] wouldn't ever happen in Finland?"

"The difference between being a [#NATO] partner and being a member is very clear, and will remain so. There's no other way to have security guarantees"
However joining #NATO involves "many risks, and we have to be prepared for all kinds of actions from Russia" says ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ฎPM Marin.

"These risks are there both if we apply and if we do not apply."
๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ฎPM Marin says report published today "sees NATO not only as a military alliance, but also as a political alliance"

"#NATO is an organisation where important decisions concerning our security are [already] taken"

[Suggests the time of ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บneutral countries' freeloading is over]

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More from @DaveKeating

Apr 10
BREAKING: #Macron beats #LePen in French #presidentielles2022 first round election.

A larger spread than 2017. Image
These are exit polls so the actual result we'll know in time, but we know that for sure it will be Macron and Le Pen in the 2nd round.

It's also the worst performance ever for a Socialist Party candidate, according to the exit polls. Image
The full results from the 8pm projection, which has historically proven to end up being accurate.

It is the worst result in history for both the 'big tent' mainsteam parties - the Socialists and the Gaulists.

It is (I think?) the highest vote in history for the far-left. Image
Read 13 tweets
Apr 8
Itโ€™s really feeling like the ๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡น position against an ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บban on #RussianOil is no longer tenable, and they know it.

Feeling in Brussels right now is: these two demanded drastic sacrifice in ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ after mistakes were made there. ๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡น must make sacrifices now for greater good.
The counter-argument is that the negative economic effects of an oil embargo wouldnโ€™t just effect ๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡น, they would effect all of ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ by destabilising the economy and causing energy prices to surge.

But you can understand why ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ are sceptical of such contagion arguments.
Even if ๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡น agree a #RussianOil ban (which would necessarily need to have a long phase-in) the remaining question is ๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡บ.

#Orban still says heโ€™ll veto any ban on ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ oil or gas. Would he risk destroying his alliance with ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฑ for that? Would ๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡น be happy to hide behind his veto?
Read 5 tweets
Apr 1
Speaking after ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ#EUChinaSummit, @EUCOpresident Michel says this was "not business as usual"

"It was a wartime summit. We are living through the gravest security crisis in Europe since World War 2. Putin's war in Ukraine continues to kill women and children and destroy cities"
"We focused on what can be done to end this war as soon as possible" he says.

"The EU and China agreed that this war is threatening global security and the world economy. This global instability is not in China's interest and not in the EU's interest. We share a responsibility."
"We called on #China to help end the war in #Ukraine," says ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ @EUCOpresident.

"China cannot turn a blind eye to Russia's violation of international law. These principles are enshrined in the UN charter and are principles sacred to China."
Read 7 tweets
Apr 1
Today will see the 1st ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ #EUChinaSummit in 2 years. It was planned before ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บPutin's invasion of ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ, but the topic will obviously dominate today's talks.

The big question: can ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ use its economic leverage to stop ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ aiding ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ, and should Europe use a carrot or stick approach?
Ahead of the summit, a senior EU official noted ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ has over past 3 decades economically benefitted from the system of international rules that's now under threat from #Putin, therefor should want to side with ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ.

But ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ's interests now may be more geopolitical than economic.
"Do you [๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ] want to endanger the stability and growth prospects of the global economy and your own country?โ€ asked the EU official.

The stick approach: If ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ supplies ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ for #UkraineWar or helps it evade sanctions, may get less economic access to West (or face sanctions itself)
Read 6 tweets
Mar 25
Presidents @JoeBiden & @VonDerLeyen have just announced a deal that will see ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ deliver an additional 15 billion cubic metres of liquified natural gas (#LNG) this year to ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ.

It's designed to give #EUCO leaders the confidence today to ban Russian energy imports.
But #Biden acknowledges the problem: Europe has few #LNG port facilities to receive the liquified gas, and they're already operating at capacity. He says US will help build new LNG infrastructure.

Longer term, ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ will deliver at least 50bn cm per year to ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ from now to 2030.
The amount of extra ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ#LNG deliveries by ship this year promised by #Biden amounts to 10% of the 155 bcm of gas ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ imports from Russia each year via pipeline.

EU will "build more infrastructure to receive LNG and to take steps to increase the efficiency of gas" Biden says.
Read 5 tweets
Mar 25
#EUCO will today see Latin-Germanic clash on energy prices. It's very technical but here's an explainer I wrote for @EnergyMonitorAI.

Electricity prices are tied to gas, and they're going through the roof. ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธSanchez wants to change that. ๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฑ say no.
energymonitor.ai/sectors/power/โ€ฆ
The disagreement on energy prices could blow up #EUCO today. ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธSanchez is threatening to veto #EUCO conclusions if there's no price changes.

Team Sanchez (๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ช) say urgent relief is needed.

๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฑ say intervention is not a silver bullet & caps risk suppliers ending contracts
๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฑ also point out market intervention setting energy prices is a double-edged sword.

You could set a price that's lower than market rate now, only to see the market rate fall in a few months and end up with Europeans paying more than the market rate. Long-term consequences.
Read 28 tweets

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