๐ธ๐ช#Sweden and ๐ซ๐ฎ#Finland's prime ministers have just held a joint press conference outlining plans to join #NATO.
๐ซ๐ฎ expected to move first. PM Marin says she won't give a timetable but "it will happen quite fastโwithin weeks, not within months, we will have the discussion"
๐ซ๐ฎ&๐ธ๐ช"will deliver decisions independently" says Marin. Assumption has always been ๐ธ๐ช can't join unless ๐ซ๐ฎ does 1st.
"Of course...I would prefer that we would make the similar kinds of choices for the whole regionโbut it's up to Sweden to decide for yourself"
Sweden's SvD reports that the ruling Social Democrats have already decided to apply for NATO membership (but must wait for Finland to decide to do so first), and will submit the application at the Madrid summit at end of June. svd.se/a/Wj5gW2/uppgiโฆ
"What is happening in the discussion in ๐ซ๐ฎ is important for us to follow, therefor we need to have very close contacts," says ๐ธ๐ชPM. "But we need a process in Sweden to think this through"
But asked about SvD report, she doesn't deny that the government's aim is now to join.
"Of course there are both pros and cons with being a member of #NATO," says ๐ธ๐ชPM Magdalena Andersson.
"Being a member of NATO you have the security of Article 5...that is not something you do not have in other arrangements."
๐ซ๐ฎPM Marin agrees. "What is the best way to secure that this [Russian invasion] wouldn't ever happen in Finland?"
"The difference between being a [#NATO] partner and being a member is very clear, and will remain so. There's no other way to have security guarantees"
However joining #NATO involves "many risks, and we have to be prepared for all kinds of actions from Russia" says ๐ซ๐ฎPM Marin.
"These risks are there both if we apply and if we do not apply."
๐ซ๐ฎPM Marin says report published today "sees NATO not only as a military alliance, but also as a political alliance"
"#NATO is an organisation where important decisions concerning our security are [already] taken"
[Suggests the time of ๐ช๐บneutral countries' freeloading is over]
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Itโs really feeling like the ๐ฉ๐ช๐ฆ๐น position against an ๐ช๐บban on #RussianOil is no longer tenable, and they know it.
Feeling in Brussels right now is: these two demanded drastic sacrifice in ๐ต๐น๐ฎ๐ช๐ฌ๐ท๐ช๐ธ after mistakes were made there. ๐ฉ๐ช๐ฆ๐น must make sacrifices now for greater good.
The counter-argument is that the negative economic effects of an oil embargo wouldnโt just effect ๐ฉ๐ช๐ฆ๐น, they would effect all of ๐ช๐บ by destabilising the economy and causing energy prices to surge.
But you can understand why ๐ต๐น๐ฎ๐ช๐ฌ๐ท๐ช๐ธ are sceptical of such contagion arguments.
Even if ๐ฉ๐ช๐ฆ๐น agree a #RussianOil ban (which would necessarily need to have a long phase-in) the remaining question is ๐ญ๐บ.
#Orban still says heโll veto any ban on ๐ท๐บ oil or gas. Would he risk destroying his alliance with ๐ต๐ฑ for that? Would ๐ฉ๐ช๐ฆ๐น be happy to hide behind his veto?
"It was a wartime summit. We are living through the gravest security crisis in Europe since World War 2. Putin's war in Ukraine continues to kill women and children and destroy cities"
"We focused on what can be done to end this war as soon as possible" he says.
"The EU and China agreed that this war is threatening global security and the world economy. This global instability is not in China's interest and not in the EU's interest. We share a responsibility."
"China cannot turn a blind eye to Russia's violation of international law. These principles are enshrined in the UN charter and are principles sacred to China."
Today will see the 1st ๐ช๐บ๐จ๐ณ #EUChinaSummit in 2 years. It was planned before ๐ท๐บPutin's invasion of ๐บ๐ฆ, but the topic will obviously dominate today's talks.
The big question: can ๐ช๐บ use its economic leverage to stop ๐จ๐ณ aiding ๐ท๐บ, and should Europe use a carrot or stick approach?
Ahead of the summit, a senior EU official noted ๐จ๐ณ has over past 3 decades economically benefitted from the system of international rules that's now under threat from #Putin, therefor should want to side with ๐ช๐บ๐บ๐ธ.
But ๐จ๐ณ's interests now may be more geopolitical than economic.
"Do you [๐จ๐ณ] want to endanger the stability and growth prospects of the global economy and your own country?โ asked the EU official.
The stick approach: If ๐จ๐ณ supplies ๐ท๐บ for #UkraineWar or helps it evade sanctions, may get less economic access to West (or face sanctions itself)
Presidents @JoeBiden & @VonDerLeyen have just announced a deal that will see ๐บ๐ธ deliver an additional 15 billion cubic metres of liquified natural gas (#LNG) this year to ๐ช๐บ.
It's designed to give #EUCO leaders the confidence today to ban Russian energy imports.
But #Biden acknowledges the problem: Europe has few #LNG port facilities to receive the liquified gas, and they're already operating at capacity. He says US will help build new LNG infrastructure.
Longer term, ๐บ๐ธ will deliver at least 50bn cm per year to ๐ช๐บ from now to 2030.
The amount of extra ๐บ๐ธ#LNG deliveries by ship this year promised by #Biden amounts to 10% of the 155 bcm of gas ๐ช๐บ imports from Russia each year via pipeline.
EU will "build more infrastructure to receive LNG and to take steps to increase the efficiency of gas" Biden says.
#EUCO will today see Latin-Germanic clash on energy prices. It's very technical but here's an explainer I wrote for @EnergyMonitorAI.
Electricity prices are tied to gas, and they're going through the roof. ๐ช๐ธSanchez wants to change that. ๐ฉ๐ช๐ณ๐ฑ say no. energymonitor.ai/sectors/power/โฆ
The disagreement on energy prices could blow up #EUCO today. ๐ช๐ธSanchez is threatening to veto #EUCO conclusions if there's no price changes.
Team Sanchez (๐ฎ๐น๐ต๐น๐ฌ๐ท๐ง๐ช) say urgent relief is needed.
๐ฉ๐ช๐ณ๐ฑ say intervention is not a silver bullet & caps risk suppliers ending contracts
๐ฉ๐ช๐ณ๐ฑ also point out market intervention setting energy prices is a double-edged sword.
You could set a price that's lower than market rate now, only to see the market rate fall in a few months and end up with Europeans paying more than the market rate. Long-term consequences.